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on uh this Moor trading Day special now a very special guest uh joins us next ramdev Agarwal of moal oswal Securities Ram firstly a Happy Diwali to you and your entire team from NDTV profit yeah let me wish uh the viewers of NTV Prophet a very very happy Diwali and prosperous New Year right uh RAM Diwali is a time to make a new beginning it's a time when people look uh to try and make a new beginning in their life what is the sort of investment advice you would give them if somebody has not made a sip it's still not late just go and make a sip for the next 20 years and uh that your Cora formula would still be valid yes yes I mean see one is never late to start I mean but then the big Journey starts with the starting only so uh I think uh investing and making money is not a overnight game I mean as it is made out to be it's a long-term game and uh you got to have faith in the you have to be Optimist uh and uh you have to believe in the power of compounding uh because at the rate of 25% a rupee becomes 10 times in 10 years uh 100 times in 20 years and thousand times in 30 years so you know knowing the simple thing and uh then uh investing in such a way that you you compound your money over period of time uh I think that's the way to go about it and uh nothing can come on the way from making very large Fortune out of very modest amount of money right as far as you know investing into mutual fund is concerned uh if a person has a very long-term view to invest in terms of a sip or starting a new beginning uh you know still multicap and midcaps offer more value than large cap on a long-term basis um I think if the investor is not uh uh not particularly inclined to buy a midcap or large cap I think the best thing is to uh find a fund manager and give a multicap manded so that the let the fundme decide how much of the multi how much of the large cap or small cap and large cap mix he wants to have because it is very today midcaps are doing very well I'm quite sure I the the performance gap between large cap and midcap is very high at some point of time large cap rally will start and midcap will not do as well so this I mean over a long period of time you'll find that gaps are not as much as it looks to be in last 12 months so let this entire Fielding be done by uh the fund manager and uh you just sit and watch over a 5 10 years 15 years period I don't think any cap matters that much in the sense that there could be a gap of percentage or two but a good manager would take care of everything right uh last year to this year in the large cap space the de uh the Nifty return would be just about 10% and gold returns were about 177% you think uh gold is looking more attractive of course uh you know you love equities and you would always want equities but with the uncertainties right Rising globally you think gold is also looking good no for me gold is a waste of time as far as the invest in is concerned I think we should look at at best if somebody wants a inflation bitter or uh uh some kind of uh safety liquidity store of value uh sorry in that case fixed income is much better go and put your money in the next door fixed deposit or maybe you buy a debt mutual fund uh so that's the portion which you must put into debt s side and uh then balance you must put in equity whatever portion 25 50 75 whatever you want to put in equities whatever is your what call risk appetite uh so I I would think that uh keep it simple the wealth management is very simple let's not complicate it uh decide your uh allocation between uh uh equity and debt and uh just go about doing it find the managers and they'll do rest of it right uh what would be your top themes or top place for this Sumer 20173 it's all about you see how what has happened is that it's not a very broad what we are used in 2003 to 2007 anything you touch it used to fly it's not that kind of situation it's not overheated Market or uh uh uh you know any and every stock is not doing well uh there are very few stocks out of 3,000 List stock probably 3 400 stocks are doing very well and uh how do you get to them is extremely important how do you find them enough in your portfolio is the key to success I mean you might get get one right but 10 wrong but I think what is required is that your portfolio should have enough good companies so for that uh you know the themes I mean what is reconing theme is clearly I mean uh 25 30% we put in private sector bank and nbfcs we put uh uh in consumer companies some 15 20% depending on avability of ideas we put another 20 25% in automotive site which is consumer as well as durable and slightly cyclical and uh sensitive to the interest rate declines then you have uh uh you have pharmaceutical companies wonderful phace companies which are bitting the world in terms of their uh uh what they're exporting in genics and all so like this you have to build a portfolio and it depends on your skill of what are the businesses you understand we are comfortable uh with what I said these are all disclos portfolios and uh we have about we run a very concentrative strategy so we we never have more than 20 stocks in a uh in a portfolio which must be representing 7 to eight businesses or maybe even 10 businesses uh and uh we typically buy the leadership companies we buy fast growing high quality we follow the qglp process so you have to have your investment philosophy find the ideas and just build a portfolio I think it will do very well all right um Ram if somebody is very adventurous and he wants to put some money in midcaps because he is thinking that I'm going to look for value and I'm going to hold on for the longterm term would you suggest something that you think uh is driven by strong fundamentals good management and you know it's a midcap that will become a large capap for someone with patience no I first thing is I would not recommend anything in this uh kind of situation and uh it's a lot of work to identify an idea and uh I mean as far as we are concerned whatever ideas are there they're all disclosed you can go and see our portfolios the midcap portfolio in Focus stud and uh so those ideas are all disclosed in public I would not like to pick one or other uh you know because it becomes very diff because some of these ideas have run up quite a bit and in the shorter term maybe in 12 months time some of these companies may actually not do well maybe on a five basis they'll do very well so it's a you have to and the ones which are likely to do very well and they are low priced and which has a lot of potential we are still buying and I would not like to discuss those companies it is fully disclosed in the portfolios okay uh amongst the uh names mcap names uh disclos in your portfolios uh can you talk about a few that investors can consider to put some money in no I think it is not right uh because it's talking your own portfolio I would rather request the people to go to the website and look at the uh stocks and pick up uh themselves because uh we have lot of uh uh regulatory issues to talk about his stocks R they totally understand the regulatory issues but you know last year same time we got a listing interlobe Aviation uh which you know you were quite bullish on not taking any names but you think Aviation is becoming a consumer pack rather than more of a cyclical pack and that's why it's looking interesting so would you still be bullish on the aviation pack the numbers that we are getting of the passenger data still continues to look good so is it interesting and a better play versus the traditional consumer names like h TC yeah clearly see uh it's a fantastic uh consumer cyclical it's a cyclical as well as consumer uh and growing cyclical consumer so we have amazing opportunity in terms of growth but uh you know globally for a very long time uh Aviation has not made money incidentally right now all the airlines all over the world are making bumper amount of profits so uh right now it's going is very good because oil prices are very low oil prices oil is about 40% of the entire ticket cost and in India not only the margin is there there is a growth also so uh so this is a very unique opportunity but uh the nature of the business is you know a lot of fixed cost is there and uh if if you fly uh for some time empty uh aeroplanes your I mean 100 100 flights U profit will go away in just four or five empty flights so I think one has to be extremely careful this is not a this is not a category where you can buy and hold and uh uh you know and you cannot allocate large amount of money so I think one has to have modest allocation and uh it's a cyclical consumer cyclical and whenever there is exess in the valuation and all one must book profits also but I think I'm I'm quite uh bullish about uh uh interlobe Aviation and uh they seem to be doing very well let's see uh this is one of the weakest quarter in September how will they Fair to last year right how would you look at the nbfc pack since April uh since the results have come rates have fallen further nbfcs have done particularly well maybe nbfcs as well as private Banks how how would you look at this sector despite the valuations there is still uh the growth Outlook which continues to be strong for these names yeah yeah they will remain very strong depending on which company you're talking about and uh it all depends on the strategies of each and every company how well they have strategized because opportunities are there and there are uh lot of uh competition which is uh uh which is not that competent so uh the area is very large the people who are competent they can pick and choose the customers or uh uh you know the market share and hence they can grow very rapidly so uh uh we are seeing uh some very interesting fintech kind of uh nbfcs are coming up who can do millions of customers every quarter so uh it's a very very interesting is space I think a lot is going to happen here right you know as far as the earnings so far is concerned uh you know again you know not taking in names but large cap it has not done well probably a little bit of Pharma company that has declared has not been that great but some of the other names like adani ports which were not expected to do that well did particularly well so is the composition of earnings for sensex on Nifty changing yeah so I think uh the top 10 companies are not doing that well I mean you have Reliance you have TCS you have infosis uh so uh quite a few large uh names are not particularly growing very rapidly so that's and they have large weight in the index so that's holding back the you know earnings growth for the index per se but uh I mean even valuation of these companies are also uh low double digit kind of thing I mean if the index is at 18 times these companies are trading at 12 13 14 times and they have very large franchises and uh so it's very interesting time I mean I'm not I don't remember anything like this where uh top companies are trading uh at a lower multiple then the tier 2 tier 3 companies trading at multiples of the index multiples right uh as far as cement is concerned you know again you know that's a sector which a lot of uh uh people look quite closely again numbers were not that great but the valuations of these cement companies continue to look uh strong so again the market is just telling you that they are ready to pay this price for a better Outlook going ahead yeah but whenever you pay too much of price for anything even if it is a great company uh you know the return becomes very mediocre I mean uh if you pay 300 $250 $300 for uh cement capacity at the end of it a ton of cement can earn that much only you know it's not that you can charge unlimited price so I think uh uh but then it has surprised in the past because what happens is that uh uh these companies are going from say 20p to 30p 30 to 40 40 to 50 and uh whoever said that it is expensive at 30p he's looking like a fool because at 40p the stock has done actually 50 times growth so you know uh but then uh Prudence will prevail at finally and uh uh uh in cement replacement price how many if it is $150 uh then you know if it is very efficient maybe you can pay $200 but paying significantly higher premium on that it doesn't make sense to me to best of my understanding ramdev just a last word do you think markets will hit new highs what are the triggers for summer 2073 everything is perfect for new high I can tell you this in the sense that you have low oil prices uh fiscal under control Uh current account under control rupe dollar very very stable uh money pouring on from all over the world India is the iconic destination uh for I mean all the countries I mean and we have leadership which is extremely aspirational so everything is right for India just that Global growth local growth I mean it must just fall in place you know one of I mean the investment cycle or some kind of consumer demand I don't know I mean it might be just few months away I I would think that market may surprise us in next 12 months on the upside
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