저자: VijayKedia · 외국인
요약 보기
강세장·약세장 구분 무의미, 시장은 경제의 반영이라고 주장. 과열 시 빠지고 위기 시 공격적으로 매수하는 역발상 투자 강조. 세라 사니터리웨어 장기 보유 사례(16,000배 수익 언급)로 '이야기가 살아있는 한 보유' 원칙 설명. 인도 경제는 아므리트 칼 시기로 향후 5~10년 구조적 성장 기대, 주택·위생 등 확장 및 관광 인프라 성장 잠재력 언급. 특정 자산의 1~3개월 가격 방향 예측은 없음.
다듬은 글
No, my mind is very clear ma'am, I think that there is no such thing as bull market or bear market. So, my quote is that we are neither in bull market nor in bear market, we are into stock market. So, you have to understand the Indian economy. If the economy is running, then the stock market is its reflection.
The stock market does not have any existence of its own. Whatever is happening in the economy, its reflection happens here. If it increases too much here, then it corrects itself. This is the phenomenon of the market. So, this saying does not make any difference to me about bull market or bear market.
Rather, what happens is that when the market becomes very hyped or goes high, then I withdraw from there. If the market is better than the market, then I become subbed, I come to play defense and when the market is in crisis, then I become offensive. I do the opposite. So, I also have a quote madam that whatever money people have earned in the world, they have earned it in the bear market.
Earn money by investing. You did not create much wealth by investing in a bull market. There is a difference between making money and creating wealth. The wealth that is created in the market is created within a crisis, whether you take the Lehman Brothers crisis or the Covid crisis or any other crisis, in that, the person who bought shares with courage or by adjusting his portfolio in any way, he made money.
So for me, this bull market or bear market is the first thing for me to say something just for a moment since we are talking, so I can give you some references about bull market or bear market, but actually mentally I am not aware of it, of course, that does not mean that my stock price falls, so of course I am aware of it, not aware that it draws my attention.
What did it fall? Then I would say, what was it, it fell. Your demat statement belongs to the market, your bank statement, below to you, it is very simple. So to me, this There is not much difference between a bull market and a bear market and the second thing I would like to point it out to you ma'am, after 2003 a major change has come in the Indian economy or the Indian stock market that earlier bear markets were small and bull markets were big, earlier the bull market used to end within 9 months and the bear market used to last for two-three years, after 2003 it happened that the bull market lasted for 5 years and the bear market came, a big crisis came and within 9-10 months the market made a bottom and came into revival mode, a new high came after three years or four years, it does not matter but the stocks made the major lows that they had to make and the crisis that was young was over and the market started stabilizing, the same situation happened during Covid, so I think you should see that even in Covid, it was as big as this, it was the biggest crisis of the century, even after that you should see the market came into recovery mode within nine months, the market should not be considered a bull market or a bear market from a new high, this is a very big one There is a myth that a bull market will only happen if a new high is reached.
Nothing like that happens. A new high is a dangerous sign, meaning it could mean a fall is on the horizon. So, I do n't believe in bull market or bear market. In fact, I will tell you that between 2008 and 2012, there were four to five years in which the shares I had bought earlier increased 50-50 times, between 8 and 14 times.
People think that the bull market came after 2014. People think like this, so these people should not think like this. I feel that bull markets are getting bigger, bear markets are getting smaller, and the arrival of a bear market is like a filter; the smaller part gets removed, the weak link gets removed.
And this is the biggest lesson. Right now, after Covid, the market is falling, and these new people who have come, this will create a structure for their life. Such a big lesson for these people. If they learn from this, then this is a big lesson for them. This blessing and It's a disgrace, people come to the stock market first, isn't it Sonia ji?
They come to speculate, first of all, to make money quickly, and the market supports them because if you push a moving train, you'll feel like you're pushing it, that's why it's moving. Now, if you push it in the opposite direction, you'll realize how powerful you are. People think that they can buy anything they want in the market.
Someone tells them they've made money. You feel like you're invincible, right now, I've become first class here, I've conquered the market. When the market slaps you, you realize you have nothing. So, I say, when God gives, He gives it in abundance; when He takes, He takes it with a slap. I have a quote: Chase the story behind the stock, not money on the table.
Money will make you rich, but the story will make you wealthy. So, this applies to both things. It applies when the market falls, and it also applies to a rising market. Many times, you buy shares for 50 rupees. It seems that 100 becomes 50, you leave and later you find out that it becomes 000, then you missed that story, it also happens that you bought shares within 50, it became 00, according to the formula I just told you, I think, according to that formula, I did not sell it even at 500 or even at 200, but after that it fell to 50, it kept moving between 50 and 100 for 5 years, what you are talking about, this also happens, so you will have to choose a formula, you are not so smart that you will apply this formula to it, you will apply this formula to it, you do not have that ball, a crystal ball, from which you will know, you will have to follow only one principle, so my principle is that as long as the story is intact, I remain in the shares, whether it performs or not in numbers or in the market.
Whether it performs or not in the market, I remain in it. When the story changes, even if it is performing, I can exit. So, I do not just focus on the share market price, I focus on the company's activity. What about my time, I do not have any fixed time to live. If I buy shares and you ask me when to sell them, I do not know.
It may be after six months, it may be after 12 years, and at what price should I sell them? I do not have any fixed price because here shares worth Rs. 50 are worth Rs. 00. We have seen this, as you must have heard, I have a share, if I add dividend in it, Cera Sanitary Ware, it gave me a return of 16000 times.
If I calculate dividend in it, then I take a rap costing, so one idea can change your life, so here your work can be done within one stock itself, so by saying this, I do not have any price target, this thing teaches me this. I do n't have a price target, I do n't have a time target, as long as it's going on, it's going on, even if there is a period, look what I understand is that in the stock market, if you look at your portfolio individually, all the shares, all the athletes are not going to cross 100 meters in 88.9 seconds, right?
You have to look at the entire bouquet, how many flowers are there in my bouquet, some will give more fragrance, some will last longer, some are more artistic, some portfolio will give your percentage wise return, some will give multiple times return, some will not perform, overall you should look at it single, if you look at it then you may regret, it is not necessary that my performance has not been performed, all the shares will perform, so if it does not perform and if the management is not making any mistake or if it is not doing any stupidity, then till then I stick to it, okay, so you talked about Cera Sanitary Ware, that is one of the big Stocks in your portfolio right at 1600, 16000 times 16000 times is a return, return, return, return, wow, there is zero costing, so let's take a wrap costing, according to mathematics, so I sold it for 00, wow, so when you did the identification, there was one Hindustan ID E ID Parry and one Hindustan Sanitary Ware, these three companies were listed, the rest in Morbi, all those which are made in the unorganized sector, all of them were made, so there were only three companies and the market size, India is definitely growing, we are seeing that there is a continuous growth going on in India, so there is going to be growth in housing as well, I mean, any person will say this just by looking at it, you don't need to do much study in this, it will grow as long as there is growth in productivity and there is growth in population, every country expands, every country grows, so there were two things in India, there was growth in productivity and there was growth in population, so there will be growth in housing, there will be growth in housing, so understand If we look at sanitary ware, something happened there that the shares were cheaper than others.
Price wise, these shares were very cheap. So all I understood was that all these other shares are available at a price of 10-12 rupees, whereas Cera is available at a price of five rupees in Sat. I asked a developer who is a real estate developer, my cousin, and he said that I use Cera and generally developers use Cera more because it is cheaper than others.
I thought there was a boom in housing and all this was coming, so then I bought Cera. At the same time, another thing that happened was that EID Parry sold its sanitary division to Roca. When it was sold to Roca, they paid double the sales price and Cera was available at half the sales price at that time.
So, I had four times leverage, so understand that if the turnover was of 100 crores, then it was available for 500 crores. And Roka bought a company worth 1000 crores for 2000 crores, so I felt that 500 crores, 2000 crores, so I had leverage, so I invested there and I gained more confidence and I kept it, okay, so this is a small thing, it is a very simple thing, if you observe it then it is a very simple thing, so I just bought Sera accordingly and then there was a housing boom, all that population growth is also going on in India, so I kept studying it, I give a little bit in between and sold a little bit, whatever was left in the last one and a half, I just sold it, last year on September 23, the bonus came at the price of 8200, so I sold the entire base at the price of 16400, okay, you have fitted it all, it has been 16-17 years, it is 18 years, so if you see any big trend for the next 10 years, you said you caught the trend of housing, you invested in sanitary ways in that, next five to In the last 10 years, you are seeing one or two big trends.
Look at one or two trends, what I feel is that we are currently in the Amrit Kaal. I feel that India is going through the adolescence phase, which is called India entering adulthood from childhood. The next five years, seven years are so important for India, or you can understand that this decade is so important in it.
India's structure for this century will be ready in this decade, within the next five years, within 78 years. You can understand that the structure of what India is going to do in the next 50 years, 100 years will be ready. So these are big trends and are very important and should have big growth. So this does not mean that I feel that all sectors are going to boom.
If you compare everything with any parameter, like we say per capita income, we say per capita consumption, we compare the formula that has been applied. If we compare China with other countries, then there is no mini scale anywhere, correct, we do not know anything about anything, there is no comparison between us and when China hit $3000 per capita GDP, then the boom that started in China, I think it went on for the next 10 years and till now we are still at about 2100 and 2700, so this is what happens, a few days ago I was convinced that when your per capita income reaches 000 lakh, then there is a boom in consumer goods, now perhaps inflation has also been added, understand that now if it crosses above 3000 or 3200, then there is a boom in consumer goods and the economy booms strongly, that is going to happen in India too, understand that it may happen next year, so I think all the sectors are going to do well, but some sectors which I like, I always think the opposite which does not work My attention goes to that which becomes fashionable, I leave that sector, I become conscious of it, that this is very trendy, it has become trendy, everyone is talking about the same thing, so I don't pay attention to that at the moment, I keep studying it, so I feel that tourism is still under-penetrated for example, in India you will find Switzerland as well, Ibiza as well, London as well, you will find snow as well, you will find deserts as well, mountains as well, you will find the lakes of Udaipur as well, you will find palaces as well, you will find huts as well, villages as well, cities as well.
Whatever we go and see in the world, we go and see the 600-year-old ruins of Basilica, and say, oh, we would have spent lakhs of rupees, we went to Italy and saw this 600-year-old church, it is dilapidated or whatever it is, to see it, it is all marketing, all this, the problem in India is the infrastructure, the infrastructure to reach there is not up to par, hotels The hotels are not equal, the people going there are not equal, so I feel that India itself has such a huge scope for tourism, now there are more tourists than in India, just think about a small country like Thailand, people go there or in other countries, right now there is a trend going on, whoever you call it is going to Vietnam, going to Almaty, going here, going there, going to Maldives, but oh brother, here we have Maldives one after the other, but it is not clean, we do not take care of it, there is no infrastructure, so I feel that the focus of the government right now is on domestic tourism, whether it is due to religion, look at Mahakumbh, look at Mahakumbh, 40 crore people will go, I read somewhere that a man started the business of begging, he said I will earn 45 crores by begging, what ideas do people come up with, so I mean, one thing I feel is that all these things should be done well, tourism, so in this, like tourism should be done well, infrastructure, of course you cannot Imagine a 30, 25, 30, 35 trillion dollar economy without infrastructure, that sounds good too
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