저자: VijayKedia · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 인도 소형·중형주 강세와 capex(설비투자) 사이클 지속을 낙관하며, 성장주 위주로 장기 보유 전략을 강조한다. 인도 소형·중형주는 최근 2년간 약 4~5배 상승했고 아직 강세가 이어질 것으로 본다. 현재 인도 불마켓은 6~9개월 되었으나 갈 길이 멀다고 평가. Capex 테마: 민간 설비투자는 아직 초입이며 설비가동률(73~75%, CII는 80% 언급)을 근거로 향후 3~4년간 성장 여력이 있다고 본다. Elicon Engineering은 2년 전 매수해 3~4배 상승했으나 스토리는 이제 시작이라고 주장. Patel Engineering도 저가에 매수해 주가가 두 배 올랐다고 언급. 종목 선택 기준: 자본재(capital goods) 등 고평가 종목은 피하고, 위기에서 회복 중이며 합리적 가격에 거래되는 기업을 선호. 방산: 방산주는 이미 비싸졌고 정부 지출 기대가 반영된 상태. 과거 Aeronautics를 주당 900루피 근처에서 매수했으나 조기 매도. 보유 원칙: 성장 스토리가 유효하다면 5~15년까지 보유 가능. 스토리가 훼손되거나 정체(sunset)되면 매도. 수익 실현 매도는 하지 않고 더 매력적인 산업이 있을 때만 교체. 개별 종목: Weber, Repro는 실적 부진 후 회복 대기. Newland Labs는 300루피대에서 3000루피까지 상승 후 조정을 거쳐 재상승 언급. Talbros는 소량 보유. 자동차 부품주(Auto ancillary)는 향후 전망이 밝다고 봄(마루티 투자 계획 언급). 과거 Intellect Design, IIT 등은 2년 내 멀티배거 후 매도. 금융주: 대형 은행(Canara Bank, PNB) 일부 보유했으나 유동성이 높으면 시장 하락 시 매도 유혹이 있어 피함. BFSI는 변동성이 낮아 흥미가 없다고 밝힘. 시장 조정: 10% 조정 가능성은 있지만 확실하지 않다고 봄. Sensex 6만2천 근처에서 5만1천까지 하락한 사례 언급. 해외 투자: 규제 때문에 해외 투자는 제한적이며 구글 주식을 소량 보유. 밸류에이션: 배당수익률보다 성장성을 중시하며 가치주는 선호하지 않음. 기업을 2~5년 이상 관찰해 바닥 신호 후 대량 매수.
다듬은 글
hello and welcome to this Market's today's special Mukherjee and with me today is a very well known and admired investor Vijay kedia to talk about his small cap Investments and how he sees the roadmap from here which are wonderful to speak to you again that how has it been for small caps you know because a lot of small cap portfolios over the last one year have not done very well things have started improving now but what's been your experience over the last year or two with small caps oh Odin thank you very much for having me first of all I am very happy with this small and mid caps where I am investing and what my experience is that index is still yet to touch a new high or may have test briefly I don't know but I'm not tracking it but the small and mid caps have risen four times in five times in last last two years so my experience has been very good so I'm happy one part of small cap investing which excites a lot of people these days is anything to do with the capex theme but construction engineering you have owned stocks like elicon and Patel engineering tell me about how you see this space and whether you see multibaggers uh playing out as the capex thing unfolds over the next three or four years uh of course so then I'm very bullish and as I always say that uh uh stay innocence Sunrise industry at any cost and stay out of a sunset industry any cost so I think now this is the beginning of this capexan infrastructure cycle and uh of course I had bought Helicon engineering two years back it's already a multi-bagger three or four times from the bottom but I think the story is just lintact and it's just starting and what I what I hear and what I read that uh so far whatever capex happened in India was done by the government now private capex is still to catch up and I was listening to One interview of RBI governor in a CIA meeting was saying that the capacity utilizes the private sector is somewhere around 73 or 75 percent but CII has the different opinion of the record they were expecting or they were saying that it could be it could have reached to 80 percent so now I think this private capex has to catch up and so I think we will we should get three four years of a straight uh runway in this sector which parts of construction and capex are you most bullish about because there are many ways to play it some are playing it through capital goods some are playing it through construction companies some are playing it through pure engineering companies what's your uh what's your personal preference for so my personal preference is actually I look for cheap shares which are available at a cheaper or reasonable valuations so a little capital goods and all they are very expensive for me I never bought them so that is why I chose a company like elicon engineering which was available at a reasonable Peak compared to those capital goods industry and all and they are selling their products to all sorts of infrastructure companies like steel or cement or power or or Telecom or whatever you or even defense so that is why I chose elicon engineering because of the evolution Patel also when I bought it was I think it was at a throwaway price now stock price has doubled so it's not at all a recommendation uh so I uh I am selecting these these two companies I have selected so far so this is what I I look for the companies which are which are already which are coming out from the crisis which are cheaply available or available at a reasonable price so that is why I cannot invest in capital goods and all sorts of company you mentioned defense just now Vijay that's another space which seems to be getting quite exciting but there probably you're finding it a challenge to get good valuations now yeah of course day by day they are becoming very expensive but this is what it is it happens whenever this whenever a sector turns around no in the beginning before the turning around of the sector you will get the price very cheap once it comes into the uh public domain when P everybody uh you know understand story then for some time you will find the stocks very expensive the same thing is happening in defense now it's like an open card you know on the table that everybody knows that defense is a big theme defense is a big story government is going to spend this and that so that is why they have become uh expensive and I think they will remain expensive uh you know so they are not I don't think they are going to fall or they you will get them at a cheaper you have to foresee the future and give a future discounting only have you been able to include any defense stock in your own portfolio given the valuations Aeronautics I had vote uh two years back at 900 000 rupees but actually I couldn't hold on to it and I exited uh early uh unfortunately but that is okay this is the this is the market it happens it's okay but tell me you know small cap investing is never easy I mean some of these names that you mentioned like Repro and web of they don't give you rewards in the time frame often that you have in mind you have to be very patient how do you approach some of these names which do not actually start giving you returns in a two three year time frame do you stay the course and wait for the story to play out or do you cut some of them out of your portfolio I mean what is The Balancing Act between for some of these names which are not quite multi-baggers soon after you buy them you see Weber did reward me uh maybe one year after I bought and Repro had also rewarded me but finally done but due to covet and all they got their deception called disrupted so the stock price fell down so that is okay because as long as I said that stay in the sunset industry Sunrise industry at any cost cost could be high and cost could be low Stock May perform stock may not perform but as long as the story intact as long as you you believe that the sun is still Rising so it's okay sometimes sun is in the cloud sometime it is in the open so this is stock market you know you are you are never 100 right even if 50 60 is your if you are right in this market then this is enough for you so I have patience here I can I can hold on to my stocks for five years or ten years or even 15 years but of course if they do not perform and if and if the if the fortune of companies are turned back then I will not uh then I would not hold on to the shares but alone as long as stories in Tech I don't mind holding them what in your book is a sunset industry Vijay let me ask you that I mean what kind of sectors or stocks do you stay out of because these days you know all kinds of stocks have done well coal India for example which in many many investors eyes would qualify as a sunset industry or ntpc or even tobacco like ITC they've done well what are the sectors that you stay away from you see I have never bought all these companies like coal India and like RAC and ITC of course that was that that was a bad choice but does it it's okay doesn't matter so uh so far Sunset industry is concerned I will give you one example that I am I had bought uh one uh like this it industry in 2019 uh sorry after after kovid in 2020 and 21 two companies I had bought so one was intellect design another was an IIT and I held on to them they became multibagger also in two years time but after that one year back oh maybe one half year I exited because because I realized maybe now the flavor in this this uh this theme is over so that could be a sunset industry to me only for these two shares but there is exception to the rules also like persistent is at all time high and you know profores on some other some notes some science and all these there are two three shares in the same sector which are at all time high so it depends that so what I I will say that if I find that story in my company is over or plateaued or stagnant maybe for a long time maybe for two three years then I would like to exit this is what I mean by Sunset yeah sure you mentioned I.T what about pharmaceuticals have you ever been a teen invested in that sector I think I saw Newland labs in your portfolio as well how's that worked out one got very well I bought a traps around some three four hundred rupees I don't know after that it went up uh 3000 rupees and 3000 rupees from 3000 rupees it fell down to 1000 rupees now 1000 rupees it is back to 2700 rupees and all these things happen in span of three years so this is what your patience is tested in this market so that has worked out well uh for me New England and I think the I think maybe the new path for for this company has begun we spoke about some of the construction companies but there are some manufacturing companies which are not related to uh construction or engineering which are I think better qualified as Auto ancillaries you do have stocks like Atul Auto in your portfolio but uh how do you see the road forward for some of these Auto and salaries now over the next few years I personally feel that road is very uh very good you listen to what that maruti chairman had said few days back you know now they are also planning a fresh Investments all other companies are also planning uh you know to increase their capacity I think now Auto auto ancillary industry should also do well and a two Lotto is a automobile company like they are into three wheelers and all with with all IC engine and electric electric future that we all know so so I I think that the future is very bright for them and talbros is that still there or have you sold it yeah I have very small quantity uh not meaningful quantity I had three percent or something whatever I had sold it a few months back I am still holding just a small quantity how do you arrive at this cell decision which I mean you know we keep talking about buying and holding but the cell decision is also very important for a small cap investor at what point do you say it's not working out and I need to get out or I've made enough profits and I want to leave the rest on the table and walk away with what I have no I don't don't think that I sell any shares for profit uh because I have a big stomach if I'm being belly so I don't sell it for profit and of course if I find some me some another industry if I find more lucrative than the than the previous one the previous one so that is the only time when I will sell my shares and switch on to some something else where I find bigger opportunity or that is the criteria it's interesting to see a portfolio which does not have too much of financial stocks you know but I mean I saw your portfolio you don't have too many banks too many nbfcs I mean is that an aversion to that sector for you not a virgin I had bought some canara bank and one of the pob and all uh one year back uh but my problem with me is this all these banks are a large cap and all so that is I have a weakness that I cannot hold on to the shares which are liquid in the market whatever little bit money I have made in this market because of the liquidity in my stock because that stops me from selling when whenever Market is falling you know and suppose if I feel that index is going to go down say 10 from here then it's a Temptation that you you can sell your shares in the market in spite of having a bear bearish view you don't sell so that Temptation you know I cannot I cannot resist to that Temptation so I have to sell so that is why liquid shares I don't buy and that was the reason that I and second thing is bfsi or mainly these Banks and all are they are very uh slow shares you know there is no thrill you know so that is I want some I I buy I buy some shares which are really uh uh they should have growth and should have fluctuation you know otherwise I don't get sleep now that's a strange one but you're not a Trader Vijay are you I mean do you do Futures and options because you said thrill and stock should go up and down I mean do you trade actively no no no no I don't trade I am just sitting like a like an elephant or whatever you call it like in camel as they say I don't trade but it gives me thrill care today it has gone up 100 rupees then next day is falling 50 rupees so you know it it makes me feel that I am alive like suppose you know something is happening although I don't take uh advantage of that uh I don't sell them at a you know at any level until unless my I have turned bearish in the company which very seldom it happens I don't sell them now since you mentioned that uh when you have a view that the market might fall ten percent you're tempted to sell large cap companies what's your view now uh in the market which I mean if you had liquid large cap shares would you hold them today or would you be tempted to sell them after the recent rally no I do not have any large cap share so far I remember now so all our mid caps only if you had if you were of course I would have sold and bought mid caps of course because uh because I find mid caps still have uh you know great opportunity you know Odin I don't uh I don't work or don't invest on the base of technicals and all but I understand little bit technicals mainly the basic technicals I understand and I have seen so many maybe hundreds of charts I have seen technical things and all many mid caps in small caps are they are making like a rounding bottom there's a term you know better that rounding bottom or triangle and your inverted Head and Shoulder or no it seems like the party has just started I think the bull market for damage started could be six and nine months old but I think it's a long way to go so I I don't mind if if I have liquid money today I I would buy mid Cafe when at this price what would you say is the probability of a 10 kind of Correction in this market sometime this year would you say it's meaningful or would you say is negligible it can come anytime it can come out and it can come tomorrow that nobody knows but you think even this 62 000 BSA sensex from 62 000 even during this all recession and all these negative Theory and negative news and it fell down to 51 000 it was hardly eleven thousand not even 20 just fifteen sixteen Seventeen percent it reacted so if you say then now it will fall ten percent to me it looks like that it is not possible but everything is possible in this market it can fall down 10 percent I don't know um any regrets which are in your with your portfolio any stock that you can talk about which you should not have bought but you bought because small cap is a difficult game everyone makes mistakes what's the most recent instance of a mistake that you can remember uh Frankly Speaking and honestly speaking uh Indian I do not have any regrets you know as I told you earlier that I bought the Repro 10 to 9 or 10 percent of the company from 2014 till 2018 or something and stock did not perform so it's a failure you can say that but I don't regret because I don't know next time what different I would do I don't know or maybe you can say that I did not learn any meaningful listen from this because you don't know what is going to happen in life cooking sometimes you are cooking every time sometime your food is different sometimes your your food is you know not up to the Mark it's okay it's a part of game that is why we invest in 15 20 shares some not that every every shares will perform in the same manner in the same fashion sometime four stocks will perform force will be a laggard then next time so it's like a it's like a Race So Frankly Speaking I do not regret any other kind of frigate of a small cap or a mid cap that you researched but did not end up buying and you now think that you should have bought that regret will always be there in this market you know as I had earlier said that stock market regulates the lifestyle disease of investing every time you will have regret you buy and stock goes up you will feel that why didn't I double my investment you buy and the stock falls down you will say why did I buy at all so this regret will always be there so I I think that in my life this is my journey I've come over that kind of mindset I do feel bad you know for a short time maybe for a few hours or maybe for a day but ultimately then I also forget you forget about it now you said that you're sensitive to valuations you like to buy stocks which are cheap not when everybody fancies them and they have gone up a lot what metric of valuation do you regard most highly I mean do you look at trailing peas do you look at forward peace do you look at Price to Book do you look at discounted cash flows I mean as a small cap investor what would you recommend as the most important valuation metric you say I am a follower I buy growth stocks okay I don't buy value stocks I have never bought stocks like RAC and all which are giving you five six seven percent yield that does not mean that's not a good investment that could be the very like whole India Health doubled in last two years plus eight or ten percent some dividend yield and all but as I said it should excite me they don't excite me so I am I buy only growth stock so what I do before buying a company I am watching the company maybe for two years three years five years or sometime ten years okay and whenever I feel now this company is out of the wood many management pedigree is still intact and now the future of this company is going to turn around so I just try to figure out that inflection point or that the down curve of the U and I'm waiting for that I can wait for that five years and most of the in most of the stocks I have waited for three years to five years you know to buy them when I find and when I'm convinced that that now the bottom this money that surface or whatever bottom has been made then I uh Buy in a big way in that company have you ever been tempted to buy anything outside India uh stocks outside India yeah I was tempted and that is why because of that two like 50 000 or there is a restriction so you cannot buy in a big quantity or big money you cannot you know export or whatever so I bought some Google uh you know last year out of temptation just say yes okay I am having some Google all right it's a nice talking to you and good to hear your thoughts as always thank you very much for your time today thank you thank you it's so nice of you thank you video do men share and subscribe
댓글 0