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oh hey everyone thanks for coming back for your morning quickie i've got a stamina potion and three quick things to address and honestly they're pretty damn bullish let's talk about it because they bring us back to the lehman brothers day which sounds not very bullish but if you stay to the end you'll understand some insight that you might miss in case you didn't stay to the end like yesterday i got a comment from somebody's like hey you made videos a few months ago with so much doom and gloom that i sold and i'm like did you miss the part in almost every single one of those videos where i'm like but this is the time to buy because if you zoom out and you're in a recession you're like oh damn if i could ever time when to buy in my life i would buy stocks in a recession not my problem i say it in every video if you click out early your problem not my problem anyway take a look at this number one few winners in the stock market this is a chart showing the percentage of members at new 52-week highs and as you can see usually we sit somewhere between that 10 to 20 percent level the white bars being that s p 500 level to get a crazy spike there in 2021 but these new 52-week highs very very interesting the reason you got that spike in 2021 is because it really lapped uh over from like march and april of 2020 but if i remove myself look at this corner here very very very low 52 week highs i like that i actually find that pretty bullish and so does the stock market which is actually rising quite nicely this morning so far leading into a market open now why would that be well because we are going back to the lehman brothers days which again sounds very negative but if you actually listen to the details it's because we got the ppi report this morning which could have literally undone the great news of cpi yesterday but no it didn't if anything it reiterated the great news of the consumer price index inflation drop with now the producer price inflation drop coming in at a substantial low going all the way back to lehman brothers days in fact it came in so great that look at this particular chart here uh we once again miss expectations like crazy the survey called for month over month uh ppi uh an increase of ppi inflation of 0.2 percent uh which would be 2.4 percent at an annualized rate right it actually came in at an annualized rate of a negative six percent which is a month-over-month rate of a negative point five percent great excellent miss you also if you exclude food and energy had a miss again coming in below survey uh if you exclude food energy and trade also miss uh year over year final ppi demand also comes in at a miss this is great this is actually really freaking good news now we're starting to reiterate the decline now i know most of us aren't that interested in all the details that go into producer prices like commodities now we got some other stuff to talk about anyway but take a look at just the bottom line here okay 80 percent of the decline in goods prices stuff we buy right that producers make was due to a 16.7 percent plunge in gas prices that's great so a lot of that decline came from gas prices but then that leaves the question of okay but is inflation just moving over to the services sector which was always a big fear well service prices rose just 0.1 percent in july which is an annualized rate of just 1.2 percent well below the 2 federal reserve target so look believe the pp lie or cpi cp lied numbers or not uh but this is this is actually very very good and i'd like to provide us good news when we have it and it makes for shorter videos it's great now a couple other quick notes first i saw this and it was kind of hilarious when the ppi numbers came out if you're wondering why people confuse year-over-year changes with month-over-month changes it's because they're stupid no i actually don't agree with this i think uh honestly that it is kind of confusing because it's something that we don't learn about in school so i want to give you a very quick mini lesson on what the hell these month-over-month and year-over-year changes mean in an easy way for you to understand all right let's and when i actually gave this analogy to course members the other day and i think it really helped so i just want to provide this to everyone let's say that on january 1st you weigh 100 pounds and the reason i'm using weight is because in january i was definitely a little heavier than i am now and i had trouble getting down the ski slopes and and now i'm like down 24 pounds and i'm like let's go but anyway let's stick with this analogy let's say january 1st you weigh 100 pounds and then let's say uh april 1st of that same year you weigh 120 pounds okay now i'm going to show you quarter over quarter but it's basically same thing now you've gained 20 pounds in one quarter that is almost like being on this speed of if you're gaining 20 pounds in a quarter over quarter that's basically being on this trajectory if you stay on that weight gain trajectory by the end of the year you could be at 80 pounds of weight gain which is a lot right that's because the speed you're going at is represented by a quarter over quarter figure which you multiply by a four this could also be a month over month figure right if this was february 1st then what we would actually do is say you you just gained 20 pounds in one month you multiply that by 12.
you're on paste in that case in one month geez 20 gain 240 pounds in a year if you stay on that speed right that's the speed you're looking at now if we then say okay well you gained 20 pounds from january 1st to march 31st and then the next year that very next january so january 1st plus one kind of like an airline right plus one because it's the next day no anyway the next year you weighed 120.
well now year over year you gained 20 pounds uh so that means you had a 20 year-over-year move so you gained a lot of weight in that first quarter and then you stopped and visually why that's very very important is because it means you had this really high speed of gaining weight at a rapid rate and then you stayed flat and when you make that year-over-year comparison you're still up 20 but on a month-over-month basis you're stable and that stability is important that's what we're looking for so when we see ppi numbers come in at negative 0.5 percent it's really good news if you see cpi numbers come in at zero percent month over month it's really good because it implies that stability or that or an inflection point to the downside in the case of pp live every ppi uh okay last thing uh in this morning's course member live stream we're going to be going deep into matter ports fundamental analysis on their earnings we're really excited about that but i do want to say we do still have risk factors going to the upside on inflation because companies are doing so decently with earnings look at what happened with disney last night but they're still raising prices so it's still a red flag folks check out the courses link down below people who invest in the series a and who are course members are going to get a special uh a bonus options for the future at least that's what we're currently planning uh and you will enjoy the lifetime access and the continued edition of content there's so many wonderful comments from you who are both course members and active watchers here who love the content keeping the pitch to the end today hope you appreciate it and hope you appreciate the shorter vid with no sponsor thanks folks we'll see foreign
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