저자: NourielRoubini · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 미국은 연착륙이 아닌 경기침체(hard landing)로 갈 가능성이 크며, 높은 부채 때문에 침체는 길고 깊고 금융 스트레스를 수반할 것이다. 인플레이션: 미국 인플레이션은 아직 8.5%로 높고, 고점을 통과했더라도 하락 속도는 느릴 것이다. 상품(에너지·식량·비료·금속) 가격은 중국 제로코로나와 러우전쟁 영향으로 다시 튈 수 있고, 서비스 인플레이션(특히 주거비)과 임금 상승률이 생산성을 웃돌아 임금-물가 악순환 위험이 있다. 연준: 실질금리가 여전히 크게 마이너스라 통화정책이 충분히 긴축적이지 않다. 연준이 2%까지 내리려면 기준금리를 4%대 중반~5% 이상으로 올려야 하며, 시장이 기대하는 내년 3.8% 수준의 피벗은 비현실적이다. 연준이 이를 못 하면 인플레 기대가 통제 불능이 되고, 하면 경기가 경착륙한다. 경기: 뉴욕 연은 제조업 지표, 중국·유럽 지표가 모두 나쁘고, 고용 선행지표(신규 실업수당 청구, 구인, 이직, ISM 고용, 감원 발표)는 급격한 둔화를 가리킨다. 비농업고용은 후행지표다. 상반기 두 분기 마이너스 성장으로 이미 침체 진입 중이다. 침체 성격: 부채가 과도해 침체는 길고(protracted) 심각하며 금융 스트레스를 동반할 것이다. 과거 GFC·코로나 때와 달리 이번에는 인플레이션 때문에 재정 실탄 없이 침체 중 긴축해야 하고, 재정부양은 잘못된 처방이다. 공급 충격과 결합해 스태그플레이션성 부채 위기가 된다. 좀비 기업·가계: 가계와 기업 모두 상위층은 양호하지만 하위층과 고레버리지 좀비 기업은 매우 취약하며, 금리 인상이 이들을 무너뜨릴 것이다. 코로나 때 시행된 대규모 구제(제로금리, 신용 완화, 기업어음·하이일드 지원)가 좀비를 연명시켰고, 이제 이들이 붕괴한다. 그림자금융과 일부 국가 국채도 취약하다. 구조적 문제: 좀비를 정리하는 창조적 파괴가 필요하지만, 중앙은행이 매번 구제에 나서 부채 함정과 좀비화를 키운다. 글로벌 민간+공공 부채/GDP는 과거 약 200%에서 현재 선진국 420%, 중국 330%, 미국은 대공황과 2차대전 이후보다 높다. 미래 사회보장·의료 등 암묵적 부채까지 포함하면 지속 불가능하다. 출연자 전망: 장기적으로 부채 문제가 해결되기 전까지 성장과 자산시장에 구조적 압박이 지속된다는 비관적 입장이다.
다듬은 글
stagflation and some of the numbers we're seeing and slow down might point in the direction of the stag part what about the flation part is it possible that the slowing down will actually avoid some of the inflation you're concerned about well inflation in the united states is still 8.5 percent he might have peaked but the question is how fast is going to fall uh with the fed still having real rates on the policy side highly negative i don't think the monetary policy is tight enough to push inflation towards two percent fast enough so i'm still overview that in the past in the u.s whenever you had inflation about five percent and unemployment below five the fed tightening has led to a hard landing so my baseline is a hard landing so we got those cpi and ppi numbers out last week that the markets found encouraging uh what did you take from them does that indicate we have peaked uh yes we may have peaked even if there could be further spikes in inflation driven by china continuing with the zero code policy they were within russia and ukraine could get worse and therefore you could have further spikes to commodity prices whether energy food fertilizer industrial metal so the plenty of upsides and what goods inflation may be going down service inflation especially shelter and others is still quite persistent and wages are growing much higher than productivity therefore there is a wage price spiral even if waves are growing less than crisis so we are still in a severely inflationary environment not just uh in the united states but around the world dr you mentioned the negative real rate uh in your opinion what does the federal reserve reserve have to do how much hiking do they need to do to really really put a stop to inflation well they already say they don't know that by the end of the year they should be at 3.4 and then by 3.8 at the end of next year so markets expecting a pivot and the fed categories next year to me sounds delusional but even if you were at 3.8 with inflation still well above target around eight percent falling only gradually core fresh around six-ish you're still in negative territory so the fed funds rate should be going well above four percent four and a half to five percent my view to really push inflation towards two if that doesn't happen inflation expectations are going an inch or if that happens then we're gonna have a hard landing so either way either you get a hard landing or you get inflation getting out of control to avoid that unhinging as you put it of inflation expectations does the fed need to get to two or what if it got to three um well they're gonna get initially towards three and then to two uh but the point is that with headline being around eight and a half and with core being around six-ish even getting to three is going to be quite a challenge and therefore even getting to three it divides effectively in my view a hard landing of the real economy and the data suggests that we're headed towards that our landing you know the empire state measure today was terrible the date out of china are terrible the data out of europe are terrible the employment report was positive but all the forward-looking indicator of the labor market initial claims job openings quit uh the ism component that is employment announcement of layoffs and so on and so on all those are suggesting that there's a very sharp deceleration even of the labor markets payroll numbers are a backload looking indicator not a forward look indicator so we are in a sharp slow down we had two negative quarters of growth in the first half we're going towards a recession so you've talked about recession before and even on bloomberg you said that it's delusional to use that word again to think that it's going to be relatively short and relatively shallow is that still your view yes it is my view because we live in a world in which there is massive amounts of private and public debt so if you're going for a recession zombie corporation zombie financial institution zombie household zombie countries gone the governments are gonna go past everybody's tightening at the same time in the last two crisis gfc and covet we ease massively monitoring fiscal policy because of the demand shock and we are deflationary pressure this time around we're going to be having to tighten monetary policy into a recession because inflation is above target we don't have fiscal bullets and we have negative supply shocks fiscal stimulus is the wrong policy response so if you combine all these things together not only we get speculation with negative supply shock we get the stagflationary debt crisis so the recession is going to be long protracted severe and associated with financial distress across the board we never like to say it's different this time but is it slightly different this time in the sense that there is a lot of money still on the balance sheets of households and corporations there's a lot of dry powder out there left over from a lot of that fiscal stimulant stimulus well both the corporate sector and the housing sector are split if you are in the top part of the distribution of the household sector you have income you have wealth you have jobs but you know in the bottom side things are very stressed out both in terms of p l and the balance sheet same thing in the corporate sector there were tons of firms that were have highly leveraged didn't have much profits they were zombie they would have gone bust but during kovit we bailed out everybody zero rate negative rates positive easing credit easing backstopping money market commercial paper high yield high grade you name it now that we have to tighten as inflation is higher that zombies are going to collapse and both in the household sector in the corporate sector in the shadow financial system some sovereigns in some countries you have many many parts of the global economy that are essentially zombie and they're going to go fast so the average essentially hides the fact that in terms of distribution you have really stronger balance sheets and worse balance sheets and the worse balance sheets are now dominant so to try to look for a little bit of light at the end of the tunnel is there possibly some encouragement from the elimination of some of the so-called zombie companies uh in this sense zombie companies typically occupy a fair amount of capital that's not as productive as it could be could the redeployment of capital actually increase productivity and help us maybe not in the short term but in the medium and longer term yes you know in the medium long term you have to get rid of the zombies because you need creative destruction but that process associated with a recession with financial crisis with massive defaults across the board we saw some of that happening during the global financial crisis the problem is that every time you try to do creative destruction central banks come with an excuse to try to backstop household corporates financial system governments and so on and that creates a cycle of a debt trap where you're using unconventional monetary fiscal and credit policy to backstop the system you prevent essentially that traded destruction occurring and you have increasing zombification of the economy private and public debt ratio globally used to be in two thousand two hundred percent of gdp today they're 350 and rising in advanced economies are 420 and rising in china 330 percent of gdp and rising in u.s private and public debt as a share of gdp is higher than during the great depression and after world war ii they were not coming out of a major war or a great depression so these death levels are unsustainable across the world and that's official debt which include implicit liability coming from aging unfunded social security healthcare and so on the number is even more staggering in terms of that ratio and unsustainable debt conditions
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