Charlie Munger's 5 Rules Of Investing

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찰리 멍거의 투자 5원칙을 소개하는 교육 영상으로, 특정 자산의 향후 가격 방향에 대한 예측은 없다. 1단계: 자신의 역량 범위(circle of competence) 안에서 사업을 이해해야 한다. 2021년 비트코인 버블 사례를 들어 FOMO에 따른 투자를 경계한다. 2단계: 브랜드 등으로 경쟁자를 막는 해자(moat)를 가진 기업을 골라야 한다. 애플, 코카콜라, 클리넥스 사례를 든다. 3단계: 과도한 분산투자는 어리석다. 5~10개 사업에 분산하는 것이 적절하며, 엔론 사례로 집중투자의 위험을 설명한다. 4단계: 경영진을 평가해야 한다. 멍거는 좋은 재무와 자본배분 능력을 중시하며, 훌륭한 기업은 바보도 운영할 수 있어야 한다고 말한다. 5단계: 가격을 평가하고 안전마진(margin of safety)을 확보해야 한다. 예시로 적정가치 45달러 종목을 30달러에 사는 경우를 든다. 예측 발언: 없음. 특정 종목이나 지수에 대한 방향 전망은 언급되지 않았다.

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01. foreign just 13 years Charlie Munger managed to earn a 947 return on his money and these are the five rules he followed when trying to get a 10x on his money in just 13 years step one understand the business and this first step is where most people mess up let us explain back in 2021 when the price of Bitcoin reached an astonishing 64 400 everyone was buying crypto analysts were talking about how Bitcoin would go to 100 000 and why it's very important to invest now and not miss the second wait to the top should investors have listened and bought Bitcoin when very smart Financial analysts were telling them to invest well if you or anyone you know invested during the bubble then you fell prey to fomo or fear of missing out these types of things have been happening throughout history just think back to the Tulip Mania when people were selling their houses to buy a single tulip crazes like these will keep happening in the future did Charlie Munger invest in a single Bitcoin nope do you know why it's because crypto was not in his area of expertise they have a well defined circle of competence and they stay within that Circle no matter what this is a strategy adapted by both him and his partner Warren Buffett they might not understand the world of crypto but they understand the world of banking and this sector offers countless opportunities to make money it's the same with every other sector the beauty of business is that there are money making opportunities everywhere but you need to know where to look if you still have no idea what you're knowledgeable about look around you there are countless things you're using every day remember that there's a company out there making them for example if you watch Netflix then you probably know a lot about Netflix or maybe you like cooking and are interested in running a restaurant one day well then you wouldn't have a hard time understanding McDonald's business model Step 2 find the moat this is a very important step when choosing a business to invest in just like a castle has a moat around it to protect it against Invaders so does a company have a mode around it to smash that like button just like you should if you haven't done so already but no in all seriousness the reason companies build moats is to protect themselves against the competition but there's a difference companies don't have moats in the conventional ways that businesses have boats companies build their boats through their branding they have built such a powerful brand image that fans would hate separating from them a good example of this would be apple can you imagine how difficult it would be for an Apple user to sell all of his devices and start using Android and Windows the process would take several years it's the same with Coca-Cola and Kleenex these are good examples of companies that have built strong moats around it taking these business castles down would be very difficult it's not impossible but difficult even if Pepsi decided to buy Coca-Cola outright it would still have trouble generating cells the Coca-Cola culture is just so potent that anything trying to get away from it gets trapped step 3 The Madness of diversification Charlie Munger likes to say that excessive diversification is madness if you as a financial analyst will tell you that the most important thing in every investment strategy is diversification naturally diversification is there to protect you against a white belt let us explain imagine you had ten thousand dollars to invest back in the 90s you saw that Enron was doing good and you decided to plow all your money into this one stuck when Enron went under back in 2007 your ten thousand dollar investment was wiped out diversification would protect you against such a loss because by investing in one company you are investing in an index fund if one of the companies in the index goes under don't worry you still have 99 of your money so why would Monger advise against such a wise Financial move first of all notice that we said he is against excessive diversification Charlie Munger is not financially blind he understands the importance of diversification in any investment strategy what he is opposing here is over diversification that's when you see investors buying 50 or 100 different companies in their portfolios this is when things become impractical for Monger it's different remember the first rule of this video when we said that the most important thing when you're investing is to understand the business inside and out well if you invest in 50 or 100 different businesses and sectors you practically have no time in the day to keep track of 50 different businesses and what they are doing so what should investors do well according to Charlie Munger every investor should diversify between 5 and 10 different businesses this will give you broad enough diversification to eliminate the important type of risk unsystematic risk systematic will always be there that's the risk of investing but you should always aim to reduce unsystematic risk if you reduce the unsystematic risk significantly then the systematic risk is All That Remains and tracking the inside workings of 10 companies is much easier than tracking 20 different businesses and where their stock prices are going again this is value investing this is not like traditional finance and investing advice stocks are not statistics on a piece of paper they are comprised of people they are living breeding organisms that are nearly impossible to reduce to a number on a balance sheet once you understand how a business makes money how it loses money how it grows and how it shrinks you begin to understand the business for what it truly is step 4 analyze the management of the business this is another key criteria Charlie Munger and Warren Buffett share when they invest in businesses they don't just look at the fundamental and technical analysis and then plow money into the field for them it's also important to know who is running the business they like to assess the CEO and the management team of the company before they decide to invest a lot of their money into the company Munger has even said we try to invest in businesses that are so wonderful that an idiot can run them because sooner or later one will did you hear what Munger just said he realizes that over the long term the businesses will face great troubles so the management team will show them how well they will deal with that meltdown however because management teams keep changing the only thing they can rely on is sound fundamentals that's why for Monger having a good management team is a bonus but it doesn't take precedence over good financials when he has to assess the management team he has two two simple criteria the first one is how well will they run the business and the second one is how they have allocated Capital over time step 5 assess the price the last step might seem so obvious but you wouldn't believe how many people Overlook it when Munger is talking about the price of a company he says that the first thing he likes to choose is a wonderful business these are businesses that have all of the above mentioned criteria but then he likes to assess the price of the stock and see if it's worth investing after all no matter how wonderful the business is you can't pay an infinite price for it so you need to determine what is the price you're willing to pay for this wonderful business to determine the number you will need to take the margin of safety into account for example if you want to buy a stock for thirty dollars and you know the intrinsic value is 45 after you've done your analysis then you have a 15 margin of safety so let's assume that your estimate of the company is false you overlook some key components and it turns out the intrinsic value is only thirty three dollars you only paid thirty dollars for the stock so even though the stock is down if you soak you would still make money in other words regardless of what the stock price does the margin of safety will make sure you never lose money you'll love these videos next foreign