저자: AndreasM.Antonopoulos—제목·설명란기준 · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 비트코인 CME 선물 상장은 공매도 증가·유동성 확대로 장기적으로 비트코인 변동성을 줄일 것이라는 주장. 배경: CME 비트코인 선물 상장(12월 18일 예정)을 두고 기관 공매도로 가격 폭락 우려와 기관 자금 유입으로 가격 급등 기대가 맞서고 있음. 가격 결정 구조: CME는 실시간 지수(30초 갱신, 블룸버그·로이터 게재)와 일일 종가(중부시간 오후 2시 기준 이동평균)를 두 가지 기준가로 사용함. 두 기준가는 선물 계약 정산과 분쟁 해결에 쓰임. 거래소 선정 기준: 첫째, 일관되게 가격을 공시해야 함. 둘째, 거래 수수료가 있어야 함(무수수료 플랫폼은 거래봇의 가짜 거래량에 취약). 정산·안전장치: 현물 인도 없이 현금 정산되며, 숏·롱 포지션은 각각 달러 증거금으로 뒷받침됨. 증거금은 매일 감사됨. 가격이 7% 이상 급등락하면 거래 중단(서킷브레이커). 공매도 주체 전망: 투자은행이나 트레이더의 대규모 공매도는 위험이 커 가능성이 낮다고 봄. 가장 적극적인 숏 참여자는 채굴업자로 예상됨. 채굴업자는 비트코인을 실제 보유하므로 손실 없이 숏을 결제할 수 있고, 전기료 등 고정비 방어를 위해 보유량의 약 10%를 숏 헤지로 쓸 것으로 전망됨. 향후 전망: 현재 비트코인은 공매도가 어려워 변동성이 크다. CME 선물 도입으로 거래량과 유동성이 크게 늘어 장기적으로 가격 변동성은 전반적으로 감소할 것이라고 봄(장기 견해). 리스크·조건: 단기 가격 폭락 가능성 자체를 부정하지 않으며, 채굴업자 헤지 규모와 유동성 증가가 전제 조건임.
다듬은 글
Andre SM Antonopoulos shares insights on Bitcoin CME futures there has been much speculation on the effects Minh CBOE Bitcoin futures will have on Bitcoin some fear Bitcoin futures will give institutional investors the ability to short Bitcoin at volumes the community has never seen before and will cause a massive price crash others think that the massive inflow of institutional money will push Bitcoin prices to Heights beyond the community in number 8200 17s imagination in response Andreas has come forward with a presentation on how Bitcoin prices are determined on CME futures also read CFTC regulator Bitcoin futures are a unique animal capable of price manipulation the andreas connection address Antonopoulos is a greek british bitcoin thought leader who has been an early advocate of Bitcoin since 2012 around nine months ago andreas took a position on the oversight board of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange an amp Chicago Board of braids the CME Group Inc for Bitcoin reference rates the CME Group is an American financial market company operating in options and futures exchange that is listing Bitcoin futures on December 18th andreas and number 8200 17s role in the Oversight Committee is to oversee which Bitcoin exchanges are used to pull pricing data that will be used to determine the current Bitcoin price on the cme futures the process bitcoin goes through the list on CM e future sad Reyes explains that prior to listing Bitcoin on CME futures two kinds of Bitcoin reference rates price need to be formed the Bitcoin reference real time index which is a spot price that updates every 30 seconds and is published on traditional platforms like Bloomberg and Reuters the other is a point or moving average price that is measured everyday at 2 p.m.
Central Time the point price is considered the price of Bitcoin for the day both Bitcoin reference real-time index in the Bitcoin point price are used to underpin the legal contracts that are part of the futures exchange or to resolve disputes between two parties who disagree on the price of Bitcoin at the time the agreement was made inner workings of Bitcoin cm e future sad Ria's explained the two different criteria CM e uses to determine whether a Bitcoin exchange is eligible as a source for Bitcoin pricing data first the Bitcoin exchange has to publish a price consistently or it will nor be a reliable source of data the Bitcoin exchange also needs to have trading fees 'uncle is because platforms with no trading fees are susceptible to trading bots that can create fake volume also CME futures are a cash settled market that means nobody holds actual Bitcoin for the CM e to operate it coin futures every short position has to have a corresponding long position both positions have to be capitalized in US dollars against the CME the CME customers need to have collateral deposited and audited on a daily basis this entitles CM e customers to take long and short positions that do not go over collateral lastly the CME also has circuit occurs that halt trading if Bitcoin prices drop or rise by more than seven percent who will short Bitcoin traders or investment bankers will short Bitcoin at great risk and so this is an unlikely scenario instead the most active short participants will be Bitcoin miners this is because miners have the ability the short Bitcoin with the least amount of risk miners hold the underlying asset VIP coin and can make good on short bets without loss miners can hedge their positions by taking a calculated Bitcoin short position and minor operating a Bitcoin mining business has to pay electricity prices month-to-month without knowing what the price of Bitcoin will be if the price collapses suddenly miners may have to close shop because of a lack of cashflow Andria's foresees miners taking 10% of their Bitcoin to put in a short position if Bitcoin collapses in price that month it gives miners the ability to recover losses from price drops to pay for their running costs even if Bitcoin prices increased tremendously miners who short will lose on their 10% short position but gain on their 90% thus miners stand to gain the most from calculated short positions and are the most likely to participate in shorting Bitcoin futures to hedge their risk conclusion currently bitcoin is volatile because traders cannot take a short position against it the introduction of CME futures will in massive increases in volume and the liquidity will lead to an overall reduction of volatility for the price of Bitcoin
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