저자: JimRogers · 외국인
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결론: 전 세계 중앙은행의 대규모 통화·재정 부양으로 버블이 형성됐고 언젠가 끝나며 그때 역대급 약세장이 올 것이라는 경고. [거시 배경] 과거에 기록된 적 없는 규모의 돈 찍기와 차입 지출이 이뤄지고 있다고 진단. 중국·다른 나라가 긴축을 검토 중이나 미국은 아직 확장 기조, 시장에 막대한 유동성이 유입되는 중. [버블 진단] 채권은 역사상 가장 비싼 수준의 버블, 일부 지역(한국, 뉴질랜드 등) 부동산도 버블. 주식은 일부 종목만 급등하고 많은 종목은 아직 오르지 않아 전면 버블은 아니라고 판단. [원자재] 은은 고점 대비 60%, 설탕은 70%, 원유는 52% 하락해 아직 싸다고 보며, 가장 선호하는 자산으로 원자재 언급. [보유 및 대응] 중국, 러시아, 일본 등에 주식 보유 중이나 좋은 종목이 나타나기 전까지 추가 매수는 서두르지 않음. 공매도는 하지 않음. [위기 시나리오] 붕괴는 통화 붕괴 또는 경제 붕괴(둘 다 가능)로 올 수 있고, 과거 1930년대처럼 전쟁으로 이어질 위험도 언급. 2008년 이후 부채가 급증해 다음 약세장이 본인 생애 최악이 될 것이라 주장. [지표·시기] 초기 신호는 작은 곳에서 시작되어 주목받지 못하고 눈덩이처럼 커진다는 2007년 아이슬란드·베어스턴스 사례 제시. 10월은 약세가 흔한 달이라 하락 후 연말 랠리 뒤 2022년경 심각한 문제가 올 수 있다는 가정적 시나리오 제시(예측이 아닌 시나리오라고 명시). [출연자 전망 요약] 단기 확신은 없으나 장기적으로 부채 붕괴와 약세장을 강하게 경고, 준비 필요성 강조.
다듬은 글
every nearly every government every central bank in the world has been printing huge amounts of money and borrowing is spending huge amounts of money it's never happened like this in the history of the world never in recorded history we've seen so much excess i'll call it excess they think it's normal they think it's fine and this has caused many markets to go up a lot you know if you want to build a bridge it takes a long time but if you want to invest and you have a lot of money floating around you just go on the internet and in five seconds you can be you can invest in anything you want to and that's what's been happening and that's what's continuing to happen it there might be signs that's beginning to slow down the chinese seem to be cutting back some not a lot not a lot but they're cutting back they're not expanding other countries say they're cutting back us and the us says oh maybe we should cut back some someday but in the meantime there's gigantic amounts of money floating around it's going into markets it's going into the real economy as well it's artificial if you see some of the things that you know the shipping business is just unbelievably hot right now because there's so much money floating around the the bad news is these things always end and the better they get the worse they get when they end and as i said we've never seen anything like this in recorded history so be worried i'm not sure i haven't so showed anything but uh i am certainly worried as i look around the world bonds are clearly in a bubble bonds have never been this expensive in the history of the world not in recorded history anyway property in many places you go to korea you go to new zealand you go many places property is certainly in a bubble stocks many stocks i mean amazon goes up every day 10 cent goes up every day samsung goes up every day so some stocks performing above them but many stocks are still not up so it's not a complete bubble yet so there you have stocks property bonds all in bubbles are forming bubbles the only thing that's still cheap uh commodities silver is down 60 percent from its all-time high sugars down 70 percent from its all-time high oil is down 52 i mean these are not bubble numbers when you talk about big big declines historic declines uh but with all the money being printed the the asset class in the world that i prefer at the moment would be commodities because they're cheap when everything else is booming i do own stocks i do own stocks in places like china russia japan other places but i'm not rushing out to buy unless i find something really good all right great answer jim and i want to actually revisit some of the points you made there later on here in the discussion but just staying at the high level for a moment um last time you and i talked was um kind of mid really probably about a year ago sort of fall of 2020.
and uh you were very concerned about these big macro trends back then particularly all the intervention by the central banks and whatnot so here we are a year later and trillions and trillions more uh both of monetary and fiscal stimulus around the world so i guess first off how much more worried are you now than you were uh even just a year ago when we talked um you know i think i think at the beginning of the pandemic we probably would not have believed how much monetary and fiscal stimulus would be unleashed in the world in the next year and a half so again you were quite worried back then how much more worried are you now well let me let me respond partially by saying what comes after trillions what are they going to do next how much they've already gotten into trillions which you and i never could have conceived of most people could not have conceived of but they don't want to stop so i'm wondering what's after trillions we're going to learn new languages new vocabulary here in the next year or two they keep going the way they're going well i i said i'm not sure i know it's going to end badly i still if something comes good comes along that's good i'll buy it but adam i know this is going to end very very very badly to repeat the better it gets the worse it's going to get when it comes to an end i would suspect that when it ends we're going to have the worst bear market in my lifetime in 2008 we had a big bear market problem because of too much debt adam since 2000 dead in 2008 the debt everywhere skyrocketed unbelievable even china has debt now china didn't have debt 20 years ago 15 years ago but even china has a lot of debt now who's going to save us the chinese saved us in 2009 because they started had a lot of money saved for a rainy day and they started spending it they don't have a lot of money to spend now who's going to save us north korea north korea doesn't have much debt that's why i say but i don't think they have enough enough to save us because i don't think they have money saved for a rainy day like the chinese i will say adam it's a good time to be old in america because i don't have to pay for all of this when it comes to an end ten years when the bill comes down my children oh my gosh the problems my children are going to run into in their lifetimes because of what these girl clowns are doing now so they say it's good to be old um but you're right it's going to end someday and it's going to end badly when it when it ends uh you you said either currency collapse or economic collapse you have both you know you can have one and then it leads to another uh in the 30s we had both for instance around the world and then we had war as shooting war and that's the bad the really bad news is often in history when you have really really bad times especially worldwide it winds up in shooting wars it certainly did after the 30s um so it's not it's not good news i don't see good news i repeat that in 2008 and nine we had horrible problems with too much debt since then the debt has gone through the roof by unbelievable amounts and i know that's going to end badly i don't want to be scared of people or anything else i own shares i'm not short anything as we sit here right now uh and i if you know something for me to sell short i doubt if i would because i'm just i know how much money they can print but i do know it's going to come to an end and all of us should should probably watch wealthy on to get prepared or to get worried if we watch if we know what's going on we'll get worried and if we get worried we'll probably get prepared and then we might survive some people came out of the 30s very rich most didn't most lost huge amounts of money but i hope that i survive i hope you survive and i hope all of your your viewers survive but are there any potential indicators that you're watching that you know will give you a sense of when it's time to start battening down the matches and at least get less long if not go short these things all we thought we were not looking uh in 2007 iceland went bankrupt people said what who's iceland if they noticed nobody cared and a few months later ireland went bankrupt some noticed a few months later bear stearns went back on now we're starting to know this and then blackrock went went bankrupt in the big bank in england and then eventually lehman brothers went but we'll let us on the evening news then everybody knows so my point is these things snowball and they start where we're not looking and it may have already started for all i know i've seen some small places having problems but as i say i'm not selling short yet because i i know how much money these guys can print and what i would suspect is going to happen adam is somewhere along the line next month october it's a good month october stocks go down in lots of places well then they're going to really panic because they want to keep their jobs and so they're going to print even more money and so we'll have a rally we'll have a rally but i would suspect that that would be the last rally uh because there's only so much i mean eventually the market says wait a minute guys we've seen this movie before we know how it ends we don't care which how much money you print um so that in that kind of scenario we go down in october and this is not a projection of but it's not a prediction this is just a scenario go down in october they print a lot have the big year-end rally and then 2002 uh 2022 is a serious problem probably the beginning of a serious problem because as i said the next bear market is going to be the worst in my lifetime because of all this staggering amount of debt you
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