저자: ChamathPalihapitiya · 외국인
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한 줄 결론: 연준의 긴축과 과잉 유동성 회수로 자산 버블 조정은 최소 18~36개월 이어질 가능성이 크며, 주식·암호화폐·주택 등에서 추가 하락 여지가 있다. [거시 배경과 유동성 회수] 코로나 시기 정부의 무상 자금 살포로 자산 가격이 과열되었고, 러시아-우크라이나 전쟁이 상황을 악화시켰다. 미국 인플레이션이 40년 만의 최고치를 기록하자 연준은 75bp 금리 인상을 단행했다. IMF도 세계 성장률 전망을 하향 조정하며 경기 둔화 경고가 나왔다. 약 30조 달러 규모의 과잉 유동성(세계 GDP 약 85조 달러의 절반 수준)을 회수하려면 최소 3년이 걸릴 것으로 봤다. [시장 전망과 조정 기간] 이번 하락은 경기침체 여부와 무관한 장기 약세장의 시작으로 규정했다. 6개월 내 종료 기대는 현실적이지 않다고 보며, 자산 가격이 실제 수준으로 돌아가려면 18~36개월이 필요하다고 주장했다. [주식·암호화폐·주택] S&P500은 연초 대비 약 21% 하락, 다우는 약 17% 하락한 상태다. 성장주가 가장 큰 타격을 받았으며, 하락이 다른 자산군으로 확산될 수 있다고 봤다. 암호화폐 버블도 최근 급락으로 불안정하다고 평가했다. 주택은 중위소득 대비 가격이 2006~2007년 이후 최고 수준이고, 재고 기록 경신과 모기지 금리 급등(6%대)으로 추가 조정이 예상된다. [원인 진단] 2008년 이후 양적완화를 과도하게 지속한 연준이 가장 큰 원인이라고 지목했다. 바이든 행정부도 에너지 정책 전환, 대규모 부양책 등으로 인플레이션을 키웠다고 비판했다. [리스크] 추가 하락 가능성과 정책 실패가 주요 리스크이며, 장기간 고통이 지속될 수 있다는 점을 강조했다. [출연자 전망 요약] Chamath는 장기 약세 지속과 자산 재평가를 전망했고, David Sacks도 주택 등 추가 하락 가능성에 동의했다.
다듬은 글
so if you think about taking 30 trillion dollars out of the global economy you know you're talking about almost you know i think it's 85 trillion is the world gdp so like you know it's it's it's almost half of an entire year's worth of global gdp it's gonna take three years probably of the slow meticulous you know running off of money you know not reintroducing new money so it seems like we're at the beginning of the beginning of something that's going to be long and drawn out and that's separate from whether we're in a recession or not that's just the bear market that we're in right and so you have to look at asset prices today as a microcosm of a much larger trend that has to be about fake money pushing asset prices up and now taking all that fake money out and finding out what the real price of something is and i just don't think that takes six months so for all the people that were you know fingers crossed hoping that this would be the end of it fed raises 75 we're done with this they're going to raise 75 more i just think that's not how it's probably going to be it's going to take you know 24 36 months the global economy is heated up specifically after the free money injected by the governments during the pandemic outbreak that free money has popped up the prices of commodities assets and everything traded in the economy the russia-ukraine war has made the situation worse consequently the overheated global economy is on the verge of a recession u.s reported the 40 years highest inflation and to counter the surging inflation fed has announced a 75 basis point interest rate hikes now the international institutions are ringing the alarms of economic slowdown imf has also cut down the global growth outlook again on these concerns and fears chamat balyapitya appeared in all in broadcast with david sacks chamath is of the view that this is the beginning of what we were warning before and after the fed's rate hikes if anybody thinks that economic situation would be normal in days or weeks or even in next six months that is not true he thinks that bubbly asset price would calm down to the actual level in next 18 to 36 months jamath has also criticized the modern monetary theory where some of the economists think that they would keep the economy smooth by printing and injecting the money into the economy and they haven't seen the result of money printing during the pandemic outbreak then they are ignoring the reality intentionally david sacks agreed with gemma's point of view that the burst is not going to end soon rather it will take years to get it normalized david pointed out the housing prices which have surpassed the historic highs and are making the economic situation worse listen to chamath and davidsex to know their analysis and rationale before that take a second to smash the like and subscribe button if you haven't done it yet enjoy watching the markets are in complete turmoil uh spy down 21 percent year-to-date dow's down 17 year-to-date as saks has pointed out that is not representative of what happened to growth stocks at the same time and uh the may cpi uh went up and it was at 8.6 we also got the 75 basis point rate hike the thing that you have to do before you talk about what is happening now i think it's probably useful to go back and you have to really start at the end of the great financial crisis and the reason is there was a bunch of people coming out of the gfc who confused what the us government and some european governments were doing at the time there was the risk of a huge financial contagion and so the u.s stepped in and the federal reserve started to use their balance sheet to buy toxic assets right and the ecb did that and i think japan did that as well anyways a bunch of banks did it i mean a bunch of governments did it and then there was this body of pseudoscientist certificate economists who coined this thing called modern monetary theory which basically said hey you can keep printing money and introducing it into the economy to smooth things out and to actually drive long-term growth and it turns out that a bunch of government officials fell for it and if you fast forward to 2022 so 14 years later you know governments around the world had printed something to the tune of about 30 35 odd trillion dollars of money into the economy that should have never been there so the thing to remember is like we have not necessarily just been obfuscating true supply demand in the last six or eight months when we've been talking about a recession or inflation we've been actually doing it since 2008 it's just that it's been building up in the system so one of the things that we have to realize is that all of that money somehow needs to get destroyed in some way shape or form if the true economic equilibrium is meant to be found what is true supply what is true demand in the absence of government sloshing money around trying to prop up things that should not be propped up or buying votes or all the griffs that these folks have engaged in in the last you know decade and a half have to get undone so that's the backdrop so if you think about taking 30 trillion dollars out of the global economy you know you're talking about almost you know i think it's 85 trillion is the world gdp so like you know it's it's it's almost half of an entire year's worth of global gdp it's gonna take three years probably of the slow meticulous you know running off of money you know not reintroducing new money so it seems like we're at the beginning of the beginning of something that's going to be long and drawn out now that's separate from and that's separate from whether we're in a recession or not that's just the bear market that we're in right and so you have to look at asset prices today as a microcosm of a much larger trend that has to be about fake money pushing asset prices up and now taking all that fake money out and finding out what the real price of something is three asset bubbles clearly all um you know being impacted we had stocks looks like that story was pretty violent uh then we had crypto this last two or three weeks have been absolutely insane in terms of that asset bubble and now uh record high inventories for homes record um sales are now dipping below the average of the last 20 years and um we're seeing uh mortgage origination just absolutely get crushed six percent mortgages just a couple of months ago it was two point x uh for some folks so when you look at those three asset bubbles do you buy chamots hey we're going to see even more deprecation in these for another 18 months possibly or do you think we've taken such crazy action this has come down so violently that we're now bouncing along the bottom bouncing along the bottom or 18 months of more pain well the the stock market especially growth stocks may have taken the majority of the carnage but you're right there are other asset classes and i think we're going to see the carnage start to rotate into those so you're right if you look at residential real estate now the prices are at the highest they've been relative to median income since something like 2006 2007 before that sort of great real estate crash that precipitated the great recession in 2008.
so i think there are going to be more more shoes to drop i just want to build on chamas point about root causes here milton friedman once said that there's nothing quite so permanent as a temporary government program the temporary government program was quantitative easing we had this great recession of 2008 that could have turned into a depression they broke the glass in case of emergency they started this qe which is basically the government intervening to buy bonds in the market they had never done that before and they loaded up their balance sheet the crazy thing is that program was still continuing until last year why i mean it was like on cruise control and so last year it was it was continuing until last month and countries like europe are still doing it nine percent inflation in europe and they're still buying bonds right so you go back to last year the fed bought 54 of the government's debt despite the fact that the economy was growing at like five percent gdp that it was bouncing back really strongly from covet that you had the stock market at all-time highs and yet they were still intervening with this massive qe and then when we got the surprise 5.1 inflation print last summer they didn't stop qe till the end of q1 so you're right they kept basically printing money and it's still going on and that's created massive distortions in the economy now so the fed i would say is the number one culprit here and j pal is the number one culprit but the number two culprit is the bind administration and i think biden did three things very early on in the first few months of his presidency to effectively tank his presidency number one he canceled our energy independence on his first day in office canceling the keystone pipeline and making it much harder to drill and of course energy inflation is number one factor in this sort of overall inflation number two he pushed through that last two trillion of stimulus on straight party lines the arp the american rescue plan after larry summers said economists in his own party said this is going to create inflation don't do it and then the third thing is and no one really talks about this is that biden could have used diplomacy in 2021 to basically find an off-ramp to this ukraine crisis before it turned into
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