저자: 미상 · 외국인
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마이클 배리는 인플레이션이 끝난 것이 아니라 2023년 하반기에 CPI가 낮아지거나 마이너스가 되며 미국이 경기침체에 빠지고, 이후 연준이 금리를 내리고 정부가 부양하면서 인플레이션이 재발할 것이라고 예측한다. 배리는 과거 2006~2007년 미국 주택시장 붕괴, 2008년 금융위기, 2021년 인플레이션 급등, 2021년 6월 버블 붕괴, 2022년 화이트칼라 경기침체를 예측해 적중시킨 이력이 있다고 소개된다. 현재 연준은 2022년 금리를 4.5%까지 올려 인플레이션을 잡았지만, 고금리는 주택담보대출 등으로 가계를 압박하고 정치권은 금리 인하 압력을 가한다. 1970년대에 금리를 조기 인하했다가 인플레이션이 재상승한 사례가 반복될 수 있다는 것이 핵심 논리다. 찰리 멍거도 1970년대 말 볼커가 금리를 20%까지 올린 것을 옹호하며, 오늘날 정치권이 그런 강경책을 수용하기 어렵다고 보아 인플레이션 재발 우려를 공유했다는 점이 언급된다. 배리는 2022년 6월 주가가 20% 하락한 뒤 '절반 정도 왔다', 9월에는 '바닥은 아직 찍지 않았다'고 트윗했으며, 연준에 대한 불신이 그의 비관론의 주된 이유로 제시된다. 영상은 연준이 인플레이션을 진정시킬 의지가 있는지, 정치적 압력을 이겨낼지가 관건이라고 정리하며 결론을 내리지 않는다. 언급 종목: 특정 종목 언급 없음. 거시 지표(CPI, 금리, 경기침체) 중심. 조건/리스크: 연준의 정치적 독립성 훼손 시 인플레이션 재점화 및 경기침체 장기화 위험. 출연자 전망: 배리는 2023년 하반기 CPI 둔화(마이너스 가능), 미국 경기침체, 이후 인플레이션 재발을 전망.
다듬은 글
foreign is known to be the kind of person who does not shy away from risking his reputation by making wild economic predictions for example in 2006 and 2007 his investors laugh at him for predicting the collapse of the U.S housing market but in 2008 he was proven 100 correct in his predictions in February 2021 when the latest reported inflation rate in the United States was less than two percent he forecasted a big spike in inflation fast forward to today and he was once again correct the largest speculative bubble in history of all things was forecasted by him in June 2021 the value of equities and cryptocurrencies plummeted throughout the year 2022 a white-collar LED recession was forecasted by him in September 2022 and here we are with major layoffs across the IIT sector the guy obviously has a tendency for getting things right and he's just come up with another huge bold prediction if this latest prediction comes true it might have far-reaching Economic Consequences well beyond anything he has discussed in the past few years welcome to investing path and for today's video we will be finding out what bury has predicted for the 2023 stock market but before we continue go ahead and give this video a like And subscribe and hit the Bell Button as well to stay updated for more of our uploads now let's find out what Michael burry has in store for us over the past month or so Michael burry has maintained his Twitter Rampage and oddly it appears that he is not deleting his tweets anymore at least for the time being to make things even simpler for us going forward Murray gave us an update on the economic climate we can expect to see in the coming years on January 2nd saying inflation picked but it is not the last peak of the cycle we are likely going to see CPI lower possibly negative in the second half of 2023 and the U.S in recession the FED will cut and the government will stimulate and we will have another inflation Spike now basically what bury is predicting is that the current downtrend in inflation we are seeing is simply the end of a first wave of inflation and that over the next few years we will likely see more waves of inflation because the FED rates could be high enough to trigger a recession if they are kept there but they need to be kept high if they are to be effective when stifling inflation it is the same scenario that played out in 1970s which is why this possibilities strikes fear in the hearts of investors but first we will give you a background to at least give you an idea of what is going on in response the Federal Reserve has increased interest rates in an effort to slow the economy by making it more difficult for consumers and businesses to obtain credit there are two bad options here letting inflation run wild and making everything more and more unaffordable or letting the economies slow down and putting everyone under more financial pressure or would you rather see inflation subside after interest rates have been raised the latter course of action is the one that has proven most effective in the past as seen by the fact that inflation has been declining since the Federal Reserve raised interest rates to 4.5 percent in 2022 however here's the thing individuals really do suffer during periods of high interest rates now interest rates are at particularly high right now but they're expected to continue Rising through 2023 and what high interest rates mean for the people is that you know mortgages and personal loans eat up more and more of their disposable income until they have no money left over to spend on other things keeping interest rates high for an extended period of time is not a popular choice and as a result governments often give it to public pressure to bring them down since they know that doing so makes voters happier and furthermore the president actually nominates the chair of the Federal Reserve so there is political pressure for rates to be lowered however if this is done prematurely it can lead to inflation ramping back up and then the financial pain you inflicted trying to stop inflation is for nod and you are back to square one this is precisely what happened in the 1970s the effective federal funds rate Peak at 9 in 1970 and inflation surpassed 5 the following year after inflation dropped to 3 percent the FED lowered interest rates again only to seed its Pike to 11 in 1974.
inflation then fell to six percent in 1976 at which point the FED figured inflations going away now that's what Michael Burris is coming in the next several years for the United States he doesn't think we've learned our lesson calming inflation stable but High interest rate a deepening recession widespread hardship and political pressure on the Federal Reserve to ease monetary policy in an effort to revive the economy will lead to a new round of inflation and you might think bury is a loose cannon with such a bold prediction but interestingly he isn't the only famous super investor to express this opinion one very notable prison you will definitely know who also believes The fed's Willpower will not be strong enough to conquer inflation is Charlie Munger he predicted that it was a terrible economic downturn when volcker raised the prime rate to 20 in the late 1970s and the government was only paying 15 on its government bonds at that time we hope very much that we are not returning to that place of prolonged suffering with the benefit of hindsight we think it was a good thing that Volker did that but we also believe that circumstances under which he was able to do so were quite uncommon we doubt that today's politicians would be as receptive to Fresh valkyr taking such a hard line on the economy and bringing on a recession since this is the case we anticipate that the fresh problems will be distinct from the old ones so given with what happened in the past it is clear that we shouldn't ease up on anything and it is evident that the Federal Reserve is well aware of what transpired throughout the 1970s and is dedicated to avoiding a Repeat Performance however they may be trying to come up with a solution but whether they actually follow through is another question entirely thus Michael burra's opinion is still very true even while the FED says all this is tough and that's what Charlie Munger and Michael burry are saying sure the FED wants to get inflation back down to two or three percent and that would be great but if they have to keep raising and raising interest rates and because a nasty recession and a lot of Americans lose their jobs and can't afford their mortgages will there be the political willpower to keep going and properly get inflation under control or will there be too much political pressure to lose in monetary policy an example lower interest rates and print money to keep the people happy according to bury we are likely to see the CPI lower potentially negative in the second half of 2023 and the U.S in recession by any definition If the Fed reduces interest rates the government stimulates also known as Prince money and inflation rises again indeed that is Michael Burr's most recent prediction and it fits with his other Tweets in a very satisfying way after the stock market fell 20 in late June bury declared I think we are just halfway there and on September 7 hero iterated no we have not struck the bottom yet and it appears that his lack of faith in the Federal Reserve is the primary reason why he is so pessimistic for the foreseeable future however please share your thoughts in the comment box below if you think the FED has the intestinal fortitude to finally stomp out inflation in 2023 what about Michael Burr's forecast in bringing back the Disco era of the 70s the question is how sticky inflation will be anyway that's all we have for you here an investing path we thank you so much for watching and if you enjoyed watching this one please don't hesitate to give this video a like And subscribe and if you'd like to see more of our future uploads then hit the Bell button to stay updated for our content on personal financing and investment thanks again for watching and we'll see you in our next video
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