저자: EdYardeni · 외국인
요약 보기
Ed Yardeni는 강한 노동시장(실업률 4.8%, 경제활동참가율 61.6%, 시간당 임금 상승)을 근거로 미래 경기침체 가능성이 낮다고 주장한다. 노동시장이 소비지출을 키워 총수요와 성장을 떠받친다는 논리다. 영상은 충격·구조적 변화 등으로 경기침체가 여전히 가능하다고 보완하며, 2007~09년 금융위기 사례를 든다. 영상 자체는 특정 자산의 가격 방향을 예측하지 않는다.
다듬은 글
no more recession that's what Ed yardeni suggests with a robust labor market he believes a future recession is unlikely but how can this be and what does this mean for you but how can he be so sure what does he mean by a strong labor market come let's find out more Ed yardin is a famous economist who studies how the economy Works he recently said that the labor market is very strong and that this makes a future recession unlike a recession is when the economy slows down and people lose their jobs and income a labor market is where workers and employers meet to exchange work and money a strong labor market means that there are many jobs available and that workers are paid well but what does Ed yini mean by saying that the labor market is strong and how does this affect the chances of a recession first let us look at some facts about the labor market according to the latest data from the United States Bureau of Labor Statistics the unemployment rate was 4.8% in September 2023 which is lower than the average of 5.8% in the past 20 years the unemployment rate measures how many people who want to work cannot find a job a low unemployment rate means that most people who want to work have a job another indicator of the labor market is the labor force participation rate which was 61.6% in September 2023 Which is higher than the average of 61 2% in the past 20 years the labor force participation rate measures how many people who can work are actually working or looking for work a high labor force participation rate means that more people are active in the labor market a third indicator of the labor market is the average hourly earnings which was $31.36 in September 2023 higher than the average of $28 65 cents in the past 20 years the average hourly earnings measure how much workers are paid a per hour a high average hourly earnings means that workers are earning more money these facts show that the labor market is indeed strong as Ed yini said there are many jobs available more people are working or looking for work and workers are paid more but how does this make a future recession unlikely to answer this question we need to understand what causes a recession a decrease in the total demand for goods and services in the economy usually causes a recession the total demand is the sum of the spending by consumers businesses governments and foreigners when the total demand Falls the production of goods and services Falls and the income of workers and businesses Falls this leads to a vicious cycle of lower spending lower production and lower income which is a recession now how does the labor market affect the total demand the labor market affects the total demand mainly through the spending by consumers consumers are the largest part of the total demand accounting for about 70% of it consumers spend money on goods and services that they need or want such as food clothing housing entertainment education healthare and so on the amount of money that consumers spend depends on their income and their confidence consumers income depends on their jobs and wages consumer confidence depends on their expectations and their feelings a strong labor market means that consumers have more income and more confidence when consumers have more income they can afford to buy more goods and services when consumers have more confidence they are more willing to buy more goods and services this increases the spending by consumers which increases the total demand which increases the production of goods and services which increases the income of workers and businesses this leads to a virtuous cycle of higher spending higher production and higher income which is economic growth therefore a strong labor market makes a future recession unlikely because it boosts spending by consumers which boosts total Dem demand which boosts economic growth this is what Ed yini meant by his statement however this does not mean that a recession is impossible other factors besides the labor market can affect the total demand for example a sudden shock such as a natural disaster a war a pandemic a financial crisis or a policy mistake can reduce the total Demand by disrupting the production trade or confidence of the economy a structural change such as a technolog iCal Innovation a demographic shift or a social movement can reduce the total Demand by changing the preferences habits or Norms of the economy a cyclical fluctuation such as a boom or a bust can reduce the total Demand by creating imbalances bubbles or overcapacity in the economy these factors can cause a recession even if the labor market is strong for example the Great Recession of 2007 to 2009 was caused by a financial crisis that originated from the housing Market which reduced the total Demand by destroying the wealth credit and confidence of the economy the labor market was strong before the recession with a low unemployment rate a high labor force participation rate and a high average hourly earnings however this did not prevent the recession from happening therefore a strong labor market does not guarantee a future recession free because other factors can affect the total demand besides the labor market this is what I would add to Ed yardi's statement most people agree that a strong labor market makes a future recession unlikely because it boosts spending by consumers which boosts the total demand which boosts economic growth I can't entirely agree that a strong labor market guarantees a future recession free because other factors can affect the total demand besides the labor market when talking about Ed yardin he was born in 1950 in Israel which is a country in the Middle East he moved to the United States when he was 7 years old he studied at Cornell University univ and Yale University which are two of the best universities in the world he got his PhD in economics from Yale University in 1976 Ed yardeni has worked in many different places and roles he has worked for the Federal Reserve Bank of New York which is part of the Central Bank of the United States he has worked for big Banks and investment firms such as Morgan Stanley and Deutsche Bank he has also worked for his own company yardeni research which he founded in 2007 he is the president and chief investment strategist of yardeni research which provides economic and financial advice to clients around the world Eddie yardeni is famous for his accurate and insightful predictions and opinions about the economy he has been called one of the top economists In This World by many magazines and newspapers he has also received many awards and honors for his work he's known for his optimistic outlook on the economy even when others are pessimistic he's also known for his use of charts and graphs to explain complex economic Concepts and Trends some of the topics that Ed yardin talks and writes about are the labor market is where workers and employers meet to exchange work and money Ed yardin thinks that the labor market is very strong and that this makes a future recession unlikely a recession is when the economy slows down and people lose their jobs and income the stock market is where people buy and sell shares of companies Ed Gardini thinks that the stock Market is very high and that this reflects the strength of the economy and the profits of the companies inflation is when the prices of goods and services go up Ed yardeni thinks that inflation is low and that this is good for the economy and the consumers he also thinks that inflation will not go up too much in the future even if the economy grows faster what's the secret behind this robustness and how does it make a future recession unlikely hang on because we're about to unravel this mystery in our next discussion comment your thoughts on this and don't forget to like share and subscribe
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