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that's something like three times the average rate of the bull market and it did that from covid on outwards the NASDAQ more than doubled and it went up at well over three times the normal rate and uh and finally a thing that is unique to the super bubbles the two or three that just keep going and going is that at the end the speculative stocks start to peel off and even on the upside for the broad Market they start to go down and that started early last year the super duper specs the worst of them all started to decline and then one by one they fell in and started to drop and as we said today something like 40 of all the NASDAQ stocks are down over 50 percent which is pretty amazing since it's only the other day the s p was at its all-time high in late December nothing is certain in life but I would say that is the beginning of the Burst when the specs that typically go up quite a lot more than the market go down as the market goes up so the s p went up 25 last year and a lot of the most speculative stocks of 2020 were already going down that is very rare it happened in 1929 it happened in 1972 be before the very big decline then it happened in 2000 before the tech white about I I think it would be unlikely that the market would not come down by 50 permits Peak the broad Market the s p and it would be unusual if the specs did not do worse than that the problem is is it's low or is it quick the stimulus program left a lot of money in individual hands for buying the dip and they have been throwing money this year individuals at the depths they have probably never invested more rapidly than they have this year and despite that of course the market is down but they have a lot of money they're pretty well funded corporations many corporations are doing well the economy isn't too bad so this could be turn out to be quite a struggle where slowly but surely the market has to readjust to higher and higher rates and higher inflation they will not give up I suspect too easily but we'll fight it out if you look at the real estate market all real estate markets pretty well around the world are very very high but if you and if you look at the bond market of course interest rates are incredibly low and bond are incredibly high but when it comes to the stock market rather like two thousand and the tech bubble this is more an American Affair than anything else outside America the world is merely overpriced ho hum it's often overpriced it's not that usually not that dangerous in the U.S however we have an extreme overpricing extreme crazy behavior and I think um we're in a a rather dangerous Equity bubble so there is a decent chance that Australia the UK Japan does some fairly reasonably priced countries uh well if if they come down in sympathy they'll come down a lot less and probably rally earlier this bubble in the U.S is eerily similar to the 2000s Tech bubble it's led by the NASDAQ is led by the specs uh 2000 the specs underperformed all year and the s p continued to climb it is just possible that the s p will rally to a new high I think it is impossible that the specs will so I think the game has started and it will play out perhaps rather light a 2000.
historically the stock market has hated inflation it crushes price earnings ratios this time uniquely it did not inflation started June of last year roared through the roof and the peas continued to widen to rise nothing like that had happened before we have a model that goes back to 1925 and there are two factors that determine price earnings ratios or the price level of the market one of them is profit margins of course it loves them and the other is inflation of course it hates it and they have worked like a charm and in 2000 you had for example at the top of the market world record profit margins and very little inflation and today we have world record profit margins but we have rather High inflation the market should have dropped starting in the middle of last year had it been following the normal battle plan it did not the market is saying about inflation that it totally ignores it completely believes the fact that it's a temporary ephemeral Etc and it doesn't appear to be and if that seeps into the market in the usual way it will mercilessly depress the the price earnings ratios and I know the administration does and In the End the Fed doesn't like to get on the bad side of the administration politically inflation is death the average person in the street notices it measures it if anything exaggerates it but even without exaggeration it's painful and politically very very uh tough on on the voting pact and therefore the administration really wants to do everything it can to get inflation down so it will be discreetly leaning on the FED to do what it can there there are people who spend their entire lives watching the Fadden going into the nuances of quarter points and half points and I do not I I am confident that they will move uh at the stronger end of the range I am confident they will try very hard to make sure that inflation does not become embedded I'm also confident that that will be difficult because we're very short of Labor we're running very scarce and wage rates will start to come through the system in the U.S increasingly for the next few months that makes it very difficult to control inflation so it will be quite a struggle and the FED will have to raise the rates quite a bit if you if you have to own U.S stocks you should earn high quality stocks that are in Good Financial shape because this can always spiral in to something of a financial crisis they often do I would emphasize in general though non-us stocks and quite a few countries as I said are not that bad Emerging Markets has some overhang problems if the U.S goes and commodities are high priced uh it's a mixed blessing at best for them but they're very very cheap and in the end cheapness usually trumps everything else so Emerging Markets some of the cheaper developed countries would be very much better idea than a massive holding of U.S equities I I'm not an expert on Australian equities um it doesn't look cheap but it doesn't look horrific I think it is ending I'm trying to write a paper which is basically the end of the golden era or Goldilocks and and three hungry bears um it's uh everything has been different for the 20 years of the 21st Century the PE is average not just a little bit higher but 56 percent higher profit margins average 30 35 percent higher than they had in the previous 50 60 years everything seemed to work out corporations got a lot of political power the taxes on Capital ball dropped tax on dividends tax on interest rates tax on capital gains all came down most of the most of the regulatory bodies were somewhat captured by corporations and they have had a golden era we've never seen uh bigger profits the concentration in each industry has increased and the fangs that are remarkable companies are in their own way instant monopolies so the monopolistic feature of of our economy today and somewhat around the world has increased this is very good for profits it's not so good for growth and the governments are beginning to Twitch a bit no I I don't think they're uh assets I think they embedded technology that may turn out rather like the internet to be useful Here There and Everywhere and when they are useful and when they're making money in the traditional way um then you value it like any other money making Enterprise but while they just sit there and they go up in price because people are persuaded that they will go up in price it's very much a question of the emperor and his clothes I think uh Bitcoin in particular it does nothing for anybody
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