The Fed's September minutes fail to address challenges to financial stability, says Mohamed El-Erian

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결론: 연준 9월 의사록은 인플레이션 싸움과 성장 사이 균형은 잡았지만 금융안정 리스크, 특히 유동성 리스크를 충분히 다루지 못했고 연준이 너무 늦어 무언가를 깨뜨릴 가능성이 크다. 의사록 평가: 연준은 인플레 억제를 덜 하는 위험이 과하게 하는 위험보다 크다고 판단한 것으로 보임. 의사록은 매파적 기조가 예상대로 약간 강화된 수준. 다만 금융안정 도전 과제는 거의 빠져 있고 국채 시장 유동성에 대한 짧은 언급뿐. 시장 리스크: 지난 연준 회의 이후 시장이 주간 5% 하락. 금리 리스크·신용 리스크에 이어 유동성 리스크와 시장 기능 리스크가 아직 가격에 반영되지 않았음. 영국 사례는 긴 제로금리와 대규모 유동성 이후 시장이 취약함을 보여줌. 경기 전망: 연준이 늦어 인플레 억제 과정에서 성장이 가장 큰 피해자가 될 가능성. 시장은 경기침체 리스크와 실적 영향을 반영하기 시작함. 개입 효과: 영국·일본의 개입은 초기엔 효과가 있었으나 채권·통화 시장은 개입 이전 수준으로 복귀. 일본은 YCC 종료가 필요하며, 영국은 연금 시스템 안정과 감세 공약 철회 없이는 재정 여력 문제 해결이 어려움. 달러: 재무장관 옐런은 시장 결정 달러 가치가 미국 이익에 부합한다고 발언. 달러 강세는 금리차·성장차·안전자산 지위가 뒷받침. 저자는 3년째 달러 공매도를 경계하라고 말해왔고 달러 약세 시점은 아직 아님. IMF 연차총회: 타국 중앙은행·정부들이 연준과 달러 강세에 불만을 제기할 것이며, 그 결과 글로벌 금융여건이 펀더멘털상 필요 이상으로 긴축될 수 있음. 출연자 전망: 단기적으로 리스크 자산 변동성과 유동성 취약성을 경계, 달러는 성급한 베팅 자제.

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01. Steve ran through the headlines Muhammad I think the biggest is that they they weighed the cost of doing too little or too much and decided it would be riskier to do too little to fight inflation than to overdo it that's absolutely right Sarah you know these minutes are as expected to somewhat I don't want to overdo it somewhat more hawkish what do you what the minutes do well is balance the inflation battle with the growth and job challenge what they don't do well and what the bank of England has reminded us we have to keep an eye on is bring in the financial stability Challenge and that's what's missing in these minutes there's a passing reference to liquidity in the treasury market but that's about it but keep in mind I mean and our viewers should keep in mind as well these are the minutes from the last fed meeting which was I mean you remember it was a very hawkish fed meeting the market tanked afterwards it fell five percent that week on this idea that they're they're not going to be slowing down anytime soon and things really started to get a little more disjointed after that Muhammad so so how how problematic is what you're seeing in the markets at this point look it basically points to the fact that the FED is so late that it will probably break something on the way to reducing inflation the most likely victim is economic growth I think the marketplace is starting to recognize that the risk of recession and what that does to earnings is an issue so think of interest rate risk we've understood credit risk we've understood there's a third element that we haven't really priced in at all which is liquidity risk and Market functioning risk and that that is something that I hope we're not going to have to price in but if the UK is telling us anything is markets are quite fragile after such a long period of zero interest rates and massive liquidity and the other thing that we're starting to pick up Muhammad is that the the interventions are not proving that successful it looked like they were at first with Bank of England bank of Japan but but both the bonds and the and the currencies and those and those markets are back to pre-intervention levels so what's it going to take here it's going to take a change in the basic um economic measures so in the case of Japan at some point they have to exit ycc yield curve control um until they do that they're going to find it very hard to control that currency depreciation and when they exit that in itself is going to be a challenge for the UK it's very different for the UK there's a short-term challenge of stabilizing the pension system that's a bank of England issue but then there's the underlying problem of a government thinking it has more fiscal space than it does and I don't see a way out unless the government does a u-turn on its tax cuts promises and that's going to be hard to do but that's the only way out of domestic UK's anyway the other thing people are worried about is that the US dollar which is stronger again right now just this Relentless March higher I was curious to get your reaction Muhammad to to Janet yellen's comments the treasury secretary I asked her yesterday if if she was okay with it and and whether she would consider joining other central banks that are trying to intervene to stop the dollar strength just listen to what she said on that well I I've said on many occasions that I think a market determine value for the dollar is in America's interest and I continue to feel that way and I do think that the pressures we're seeing largely reflect fundamentals and policies that are by and large appropriate she blessed it I mean she she basically said that it makes sense and we want to market value so is the market going to keep daring daring her and others to do more should you just buy the dollar where there's three things pushing pushing the dollar which is a favorable interest rate differential that is gonna exhaust itself if favorable growth differential that's going to stay for a while and of course our safe haven status so I warn people don't bet against the dollar too early I've been saying this as you know Sarah for the last three years um the time will come but it's not just now but what the U.S authorities are gonna get an earful of is all the central bankers and government officials coming from other countries to Washington DC this week for the IMF annual meetings and they will complain about the FED they will complain about the dollar and they will basically say you are forcing us to tighten too much and the global outcome is Financial conditions that will end up being much tighter than what's needed for fundamental reasons