저자: JimRogers—채널진행자미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
짐 로저스의 신간 'Warning to Japan' 소개: 일본의 국가부채(GDP 240%)와 저출산·고령화가 구조적 위기를 낳을 것이라는 경고 로저스는 2021년 도쿄올림픽이 단기 부양은 주겠지만 장기적으로는 경기 침체를 예고한다고 봤으며, 올림픽 이후 국가부채가 더 불어나 서민에게 나쁜 결과를 낳는다고 주장함 일본은 인구 감소(출생아 90만 명 미만, 2065년경 인구 8,800만 명 전망), 저임금 비정규직 확산, 제한적인 이민 개방 등으로 성장 동력이 약하다고 평가함 아베노믹스 같은 대규모 양적완화와 중앙은행의 ETF 매입은 근본 개혁을 피하고 부채를 국유화하는 방식이라고 비판함 재정 목표(2021년 흑자 전환)는 2025년으로 미뤄졌고 그마저도 달성이 어렵다는 전망이 우세함 로저스는 일본 정치인들이 고통스러운 개혁을 피하려 한다고 지적하고, 이 상황이 장기 저금리가 성장을 보장하지 않는다는 교훈이라고 봄 영상 후반부는 대차대조표 불황(밸런스시트 리세션), 자본 유출, 달러 채권 수요, 제로금리 등 거시 메커니즘을 설명하며 전 세계가 일본의 길을 따라갈 수 있다고 주장 과도한 소비·생산 정점 이후 성장 신화에 대한 의문과, 부의 집중(포브스 400 vs 하위 35억 명) 문제도 제기됨 영상 내 일부 댓글성 발언은 여성·이민자 관련 극단적 표현을 포함하지만 투자 판단과 무관하므로 요약에서 제외함 결론: 일본 경제는 구조적 부채·인구 문제로 장기 어려움이 예상되며 근본 개혁 없이는 회복이 제한적이라는 경고
다듬은 글
famed american investor jim rogers is warning in a new book that the worst economic downturn in his lifetime is around the corner and that japan's future is in jeopardy unless it takes serious steps to deal with staggering debt and a declining birth rate japan's national debt is going to swell due to the olympics and this can only lead to a bad outcome for ordinary citizens global investor jim rogers wrote in a new book entitled warning to japan welcome back to the atlantis report you are here for your daily dose of the truth the whole truth and nothing but the truth please take a second to hit the like button hit the subscribe button and don't forget to also hit the notification bell thank you when japan rose from the ashes of war to host the olympics in 1964.
it impressed the world with its urban infrastructure and avant-garde technology like its high-speed train and marked its emergence on the world stage as a global superpower but japan today is very different said famed global investor jim rogers while rogers is predicting that the 2021 summer olympics also commonly known as tokyo 2021 would bring a short-term boost to the japanese economy he said it would presage a longer-term downturn given that there is no solution in sight to a slew of socioeconomic issues like a shrinking and fast aging population the lack of gender equality the reluctance to embrace immigration low productivity and a little appetite for disruption japan's national debt is going to swell due to the olympics and this can only lead to a bad outcome for ordinary citizens jim wrote in his new book warning to japan the book which is published in japanese comprises interviews with oxford educated entrepreneur casato it has cracked best sellers lists and was reprinted six times within one month of its release in july japan's ballooning public debt now stands at 240 of its gdp gross domestic product and all previous attempts to bring the nation back to fiscal health have been postponed the target of fiscal 2021 was pushed back to 2025 and yet even the most optimistic estimates now suggest this is implausible there was such a long period of astonishing prosperity when everything worked mr rogers said in an interview but japan got so rich so successful that it resulted in huge protectionism prime minister shinzo abe has tried to change things but mr rogers said many policy measures serve only to kick the ken down the road rather than go far enough and try to obtain some concrete results if there was somebody in japan who will say we got to bear this pain we have to sort this out and if we don't the 10 year olds in japan today will have no future he said but the problem is that the politicians in power today don't want to do that they know if they cause the pain it is not going to be good for them japan pressured by global headwinds downgraded its economic outlook to worsening this month among other things it is facing sluggish exports in part due to a trade war between the united states and china and an ongoing boycott of japanese goods in south korea and while mr rogers acknowledges japan has opened up to foreigners under a new specified skills visa scheme for blue-collar workers launched in april he said the influx needs to be more drastic to make an impact japan is already facing a glut of jobs the unemployment rate was 2.2 percent last month when there were 159 job openings for every 100 job hunters but the visa program under which up to 345 150 foreigners are to be welcomed by march 2024 has been off to a tepid start this has raised interrogations about whether they want to work in japan and whether the locals are welcoming enough to these overseas workers only about 600 people mostly from southeast asia have been granted the visa despite the fact the government wants to woo 47 550 foreigners in the program's first year they're opening up a little bit but not nearly enough he said it's simple arithmetic the population is going down and they're not having babies it is straightforward but overwhelming and frightening for their future fewer than 900 000 japanese babies are expected to be born this year marking a new low the population now at 126.4 million is expected to shrink to 88 million in 45 years a forecast by the japan center for economic research showed that japan would lose its status as the world's third largest economy by 2060 overtaken by india and germany mr rogers said this could be why the japanese have been so hesitant to have children even if the government drafts policy measures to incentive the fertility rate few people have any confidence they know consciously or subconsciously that there is something wrong he said maybe somebody will change things but i'm afraid i don't see that happening right now there are too many entrenched interests japan ordered women into the workforce to boost gdp per capita which works short term so instead of one mother producing four engineers and two more mothers each woman soldered 10 000 motherboards for minimum wage and is dying alone with a cat i can't feel sorry for the men this spawn of samurai supposedly they are still asking what happened why is the birth rate falling why are women not wanting beta cuck losers for sex the more feminists sneer at something the more hysterical they are about it the more accurate it is there is nothing happier than a woman who is pregnant barefoot and in the kitchen the japs had that straight and were rampaging across the pacific in asia conquering like old-school genghis khan now look at them it just goes to show that forever growth especially that based upon growing population numbers is not necessary for the average person to have a good life and a clean and stable society only big business requires ever-growing numbers if a company's sales were frozen at 4 billion per year and it could pay out 4.00 share it is much more valuable than an uber or even microsoft that never paid out dividends as well as the other tech companies that seem never to make an actual dollar in the black the japanese scenario is blake since the bursting of the japanese bubble in the early 1990s growth has been stagnating wage levels have been plunging and a growing number of people have been forced into precarious jobs the so-called abenomics an immense keynesian spending program financed by the central bank has failed so far to jumpstart the ailing economy instead statistics are interpreted and designed creatively we are all japanese all the assets are in the hands of the point zero zero zero one percent the only reason the government's print money is at the behest of the elite who complain that their sales are down and their interest payments aren't being collected it's the fatal flaw of capitalism there is no reset button all the money eventually ends up in a few hundred people's hands we have been here before in the 1900s with the robber barons we are here again the forbes 400 has more wealth than the bottom 3.5 billion people combined think about how similar our current times are to them we are fighting over the same things income inequality immigration tariffs monopolies trust busting etc japan though seems to have a lot of money to spend they are investing hundreds of billions in industrial investments and acquisitions all over the world in fact japan outspends china almost two to one in overseas projects china gets the fanfare and japan does the quiet legwork everyone is turning japanese japan leads the way and everyone followed like lemmings going over a cliff the uk the u.s eurozone and china the sequence of events debt fueled boom minsky moment balance sheet recession china was the lemming that looked down before it went over the cliff they saw their minsky moment coming the australian and canadian lemmings will be going straight over the cliff they haven't got a clue what they are doing japanification is technically known as a balance sheet recession shall we find out what it is they have had 30 years to study it in japan japan had its debt-fueled boom in the 1980s and have been repaying that debt ever since debt repayments to banks destroy money and so the money supply shrinks debt deflation the money supply equals public debt plus private debt the private debt component was going down and the japanese maintained the money supply with government borrowing to keep debt deflation at bay richard cou shows the ridiculous levels of bank reserves built up by the fed bow ecb and bank of japan that can't get into the real economy due to the lack of borrowers we saved the banks but left the debt in place the banks are ready to lend but there aren't enough borrowers which is why inflation has remained so subdued just like japan for the last 30 years economics and action number one capital flight when economy a japan eu has a return on capital that is excessively low capital leaves economy a for another economy with higher capital returns such as the us number two economy a uses dollars for u.s investments because the us does not accept yen or euros for u.s investment the dollars were earned via their exports into the u.s their dismal currency values made their goods artificially low in price to the u.s markets they subsidized the us this is good when u.s imports are for things the u.s does not want to make it's not good when they supply everything number three since the u.s is running a substantial fiscal deficit it needs to sell a lot of debt via the us thankfully economy a is being run into the ground via bad monetary policy the capital flight from economy a into the u.s buys down u.s financing rates also repatriating capital from economia back into the u.s number four japan and the eu are both being run into the ground via their respective monetary policies which are a function of government policy they are printing their way into prosperity or so they think u.s debt is being subsidized by the bad economic policy in the eu in japan number five if rates were zero interest rate again in the u.s this would not exist since there would be no reason for capital to come from economy a into the u.s rates would be equally low everywhere thus in the u.s if zero interest rate existed there would be no interest income hence less reason to save open borders for labor would cause wages to go down in the u.s adding even less to savings printed money would replace saved capital asset bubbles would replace interest income open borders would also provide the lowest cost items available prices would fall except for those items with inelastic demand such as education health care health insurance farmer costs and carbon credits due to a renewed interest in global warming the rich would get richer everyone else would have what they were allowed to have number six in 2016 the scenario in point five actually existed except for the carbon credits it got cut short because hillary lost the election carbon credits were likely two years away number seven points five and six document why the globalists and their establishment flunkies hate ex-president trump so much even though trump wants lower rates i don't think he wants them to go back to globalist zero interest rate levels again number 8 disrupting the globalist supply chain by any legal means necessary is saving the life of the u.s there is no real economy left to jump start we've reached peak consumption and peak production and especially on human effort strength just how many more tvs cars houses jeans shirts phones computers etc do we need and can we make it just how much more crap can we possibly need or buy there's no real money everything is an illusion for a long time master magicians are running out of one more act japan is the poster child and living proof that low interest rates do not guarantee economic growth and prosperity the whole world is on a path that mirrors the same unsuccessful way taken by japan since its bubble economy popped decades ago it is a path that avoids real reform and bails out the very people that caused many of our problems the bank of japan is not only expanding its balance sheet but pumping up the market by jumping into the etf market all this has morphed into a program that seems to share a key focus on doing whatever it takes to keep the economy moving forward this is just another way to nationalize debt this was the atlantis report please like share leave me a comment subscribe and please take some time to subscribe to my backup channels i do upload videos there too you'll find the links in the description box you will also find a paypal link if you want to make a donation thank you wholeheartedly to all those of you who have already donated stay safe and healthy friends
Comments 0