저자: ElonMusk및CathieWood · 외국인
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아크 인베스트 주최 X 스페이스에서 머스크는 비트코인에 대해 통화시스템 관점에서 긍정적 견해를 보였으나 직접적 가격 예측은 하지 않음. 테슬라가 비트코인을 매입했다가 운전자본 우려로 일부 정리했고 스페이스X는 대부분 보유 중이라고 언급. 비트코인 채굴 전력 문제는 재생에너지 확대로 개선되고 있다고 평가. 참가자 Harry(Bitcoin 채굴 관련)는 채굴이 재생에너지 발전 자산의 수익원이 되어 계통 연결 지연을 해소한다고 주장. 화성에서는 비트코인 대신 지역 통화/라이트닝 네트워크가 적합하다는 장기적 논의.
다듬은 글
you know I'm on this call because Kathy asked me to be on this call not because I'm uh wish to argue about Bitcoin and I still do think that this is if we're get intoit Bitcoin annoying Bitcoin arguments I I will I sign off yeah uh Elon um I brought up X at truth and advertising uh we own it in our our Venture fund and um and we're excited about the plans you have for it um we want to do our part this is part of what today is all about we want to break news on X and I think uh I think more and more companies and people will uh break news on X so hence uh a AR rkb um but also uh you wanted to be the everything uh app and I know on this call uh there are a lot of people who uh who have a a strong View about how how quickly you'd be able to proliferate that throughout the world uh with uh Bitcoin as uh as U part part of the infrastructure yeah I'm open to the idea of using Bitcoin I mean it's like said it's of the various things that I think about I think about Bitcoin very little so but I thought about monetary systems a lot and and the actual practicalities of exchanging exchanging money or it's money is really just data it's information in a database and you know it's basically money is an information system for labor allocation um so but most people think think of money as having power in and of itself but you can obviously run some basic C experiments and say if you have a a trillion dollars and you're marooned on an island it's useless because there's no labor to allocate you you only once you have some complexity and then you need sort of an information system for labor allocation and to shift obligation across time um but it's remarkable how many people think money has power in and of itself that is their experience certainly in any advanced economy you know for example if if you were to say like let's spend more money on um Healthcare I'm like okay well you you can't instantaneously change the number of doctors doctors take roughly 30 Years to you to for for a new doctor a baby to be born and ultimately be to educate to be educated and become a doctor you you can't just throw money at a system and and suddenly have get doctors from a magic doctor Factory you can't over time change the number of doctors if you change the incentive structure for doctors but you cannot just adding money to a system does not create more doctors but people weirdly sometimes think that that is the case they see what is immediately in front of them but they do not see uh two two or three layers deep this is why uh inflation is such an effective means of Taxation is because it inflation is is a few layers deep and and most people simply see one or two layers deep but like so if something is like three layers away that they simply don't realize it and they will in fact be angry at the store for the prices going up um even though it is in fact the government that has caused the prices to go up um that's why we have to get the government out I mean for any any given system what whatever the incentive structure is uh whatever the incentives are that's what that's what will happen and and it then it should be no surprise if if you incent something that it will happen it would be weird if if you incense something and it didn't happen within the context of your companies Elon uh SpaceX and Tesla like what was the rationale behind using Bitcoin in the treasury and is it something that you've kind of backed off of or is it something that you're amable to kind of more broadly well I mean we did make some prominent purchases of Bitcoin you know at Tesla we were we just became a bit concerned that uh the the big changes in bit in the ratio of dollars to Bitcoins you know that that that that value ratio was changing too much you know and uh so in case we needed the working capital it would better for us not to have a Bitcoin and uh now SpaceX still has most of its Bitcoin because SpaceX did not anticipate any working capital issues um or or potential working capital risks yeah just and I was at one point it really seemed like the use of electricity for Bitcoin was on the margins really being quite a lot of dirty electricity and I know people got all these rebuttals to high you know high CO2 energy being used for Bitcoin but but like there was at one point like I think an entire power station and coal mine in China of that was a truly gigantic one that was responsible for a massive amount of Bitcoin mining now I believe that has now been shut down but I think that that actually constituted some insane amount of of Bitcoin hashing at one point so I think things have gotten better with um electricity usage for Bitcoin hashing um I it's still a little bit of a concern uh but it seems to be not as serious of a concern as it was in the past that's analogous to me arguing that electric vehicles are bad because I live because they're powered by a Coal Power Plant like I I think you have to divorce the the source of the electricity from the actual fundamental good that spending energy to secure the Bitcoin Network produces uh and that like the the reason the thing that Kathy and art are talking about is that hey here's a currency that a government can't control it can't control because you have a basically decentralized um distributed denial of service system preventing it from being kind controlled and co-opted and the cost of that is the energy you spend I I don't think they're exactly analogous so in the in this case of the the gigantic coal mine and and coal power plant in China it's sole purpose was Bitcoin mining and it it was it was really not something that would be used for anything other than than Bitcoin mining in fact when that plant went offline there was a massive drop in um the in in hashes per second for Bitcoin um that's how you could tell it was that plant um so uh you know that that's it's it's when it's that that that that that is that is problematic it it it went too far at a certain point um now like I said I think at this point it is it is it is better um and and when when you look at electricity usage when it's not being pushed Beyond uh you know reasonable bounds it is electricity use electricity production is increasingly sustainable uh coming from wind and solar um with buffering uh with battery pack pack buffering Elon if you don't back the monetary units with with work something that that actually takes energy as opposed to key strokes I just don't know how how you can build a better system um that actually pegs fiat currency around the world without some type of proof of work mechanism no I I'm not saying you shouldn't have some proof of work mechanism um uh you know I'm saying that and and look I don't want to you know on this call because Kathy asked me to be on this PO not because I'm uh wish to argue about Bitcoin and I still do think that this is this is an important if we're get intoit Bitcoin annoying Bitcoin arguments I will I will I will sign off I I I think Elon you you kind of raising some of these concerns I think part is part of the education process for understanding Bitcoin this is exactly why we have these conversations um you know we don't we don't necessarily need to go back and forth but maybe I I see Harry's actually on the line he is a Bitcoin minor perhaps kind of setting up the the case for Just Energy and Bitcoin and how you're effec ly converting electricity into a hard asset um perhaps might help as as a framing hey aen thanks um great to be here congratulations Kathy the entire Arc team we've actually been through our own SEC process in the last two or three weeks as well and and got approval um to take grid public so congratulations thank you we're we're in we're in good company with you uh to say the least um I I want to address um just the energy thing in general because I I actually think Elon sort of is right about the more fundamentalistic which is that Bitcoin provides a revenue stream to energy generation assets that they wouldn't have otherwise and so on the one hand that can create you know perverse negative Dynamics and externalities when it comes to a one-off coal plant or several one-off coal plants that are getting shuttered whether regulatory Al or financially um and can breath a second life into assets that um that maybe you know we we as as a species would would argue against um I think that's true and I think that that's a negative I think that the the positive Tailwind that Bitcoin mining as a totally orthogonal purchaser of energy um actually carries the positive day net net um because there's an enormous amount of opportunity you know look at the the you know the interconnection pipeline in the US for example you know there are wind and solar Farms that are waiting multiple years just to connect to the power grids to be able to enter their renewable energies into into our markets and they're unable to whether for regulatory reasons or or system engineering reasons and so you're able to bring a Bitcoin mine to that generation asset and start clicking Revenue much earlier it means that the ability to finance these projects is significantly expanded it means that that the infrastructure costs that get passed back to rate payers get to be lower because those revenues get brought to Market much sooner um and it does a lot less from an eminent domain you know where do you bring the lines you know those types of environmental and and Regional issues those all get diminished as well um the only other thing I just want to I I actually have one question I I don't know how much time you have Elon but I do I would love to know um you've been you've been clear about the need need for us to be an interplanetary species what money uh would would you use on Mars it probably would make sense to use some some kind of cryptocurrency on M now you couldn't use Bitcoin because the reconciliation time uh is too long like the Mars at times is Mars can be like 20 light minutes away um so you know not not an easy difficult there have to be some localized thing on Ms um yeah so I I know we uh some very important movers and shakers in the community are here I I'm sure they are already thinking about ways to make sure that Bitcoin makes its way to Mars I'm positive yeah it's it's just uh like I said you know at times you're well when you m is on the other side the Sun and I mean re reason sort rough way to think about it is Earth is eight light minutes from the Sun Mars is roughly one and a half times as far away from the Sun as the you know as the Earth and so at times you're on the order of a 20 minutes but sometimes even like you can't go right through the Sun so you'd have to be you know Bank shoted past the sun to they might be like 23 24 minutes um at at at speed Max Fe of light um so um anyway so I I think you you could perhaps use Bitcoin to some degree but it uh you know it would be difficult to use it a lot I think one Mo Lily some of the other Technologies like lightning uh would work totally great without latency you'd have to have a localized lightning Network like you were talking about um now you wouldn't be able to mine on Mars you can't split mining across the the Earth and Mars but uh correct um no I think the Mars have some some something local I mean that that I hope we have that problem to deal with if we have that problem to deal with then um really civilization has advanced dramatically um so right now we we've not yet been able to put a single person on Mars um just just a few robots uh at extremely high prices so in order to have any you know in order to pass uh one of the FY great filters which is are you a one planet species or a multi-planet species um we have to have a self-sustaining civilization on Mars where the as the test being if the if the resupply ships from Earth stop coming for any reason whatsoever that the that the city on Mars does not die out well um I want to thank you Elon I know I I I you if you want to hang out and and he continue uh with the Bitcoin conversation that hello where you could yes Kathy you're back yeah did that did I get cut out I don't know what happened there uh backed out for just a second okay what I was saying is I don't know how much time I mean I I'd love to uh keep batting back and forth uh Bitcoin um I know your time was short but uh I I want I wanted to thank you for joining us this has been awesome spaces is awesome and we're going to be doing a lot more on spaces so so um thank you all right sounds good
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