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Gold and silver were down based on the renewed tension in the Gulf. They're going to borrow it and they're going to print it. It's the stock market that should be going down. Food and energy in particular cuz fertilizer and oil and gas, those prices are going to be permanently higher. This is bad news.
I maybe it's good news for the oil stocks. Bonds also went down, which is bearish for the stock market and the economy. The yield on the 10-year Treasury closed above 4 and a.5% on a weekly basis. Rising bond yields are obviously a negative for the real estate market. And a negative for the real estate market is bullish for gold and silver because what happens if we have a big drop in the real estate market?
Well, the Fed has to come in and bail everybody out. We get more money printing. We get more inflation. They expected housing sales to rise, existing home sales. Instead, they fell by 2.4%. 4% on the month year-over-year now. So, there is an affordability crisis. Homes have never been less affordable, but you're diminishing the rights of the owner of that property to sell it to whoever he wants.
What if the biggest threat to your wealth isn't a recession, but a new wave of inflation? While many investors are focused on record stock prices, Peter Schiff believes the real warning signs are coming from rising government debt, elevated bond yields, persistent inflation, and growing geopolitical uncertainty.
Despite the recent pullback in gold and silver, he argues that the long-term case for precious metals remains stronger than ever. In this video, we'll break down Shiff's latest warning and what it could mean for gold, silver, stocks, and your portfolio. Let's begin with why he believes the market is ignoring the bigger picture.
Gold and silver were down based on the renewed tension in the Gulf. Gold was down about 1%. I mean, not that big a drop. Uh closed the week at 4,11940. Silver though down three and a half% below $60 5976. But it was the gold and silver mining stocks that really took it on the chin. The GDX was down 5% and the smaller ones GDXJ uh were down 6%.
But the news was actually bullish for gold, bullish for silver. The fact that the war is going to continue is bearish for stocks, but not for gold and silver. Gold and silver benefit not only from the uncertainty that surrounds war, but from the inflation that always finances it. And because this war is not ending, and it may never end.
I mean, this again is a huge quagmire that Trump has gotten us into just as bad as Afghanistan or Iraq. Another huge mistake. Only this time, you could chalk it up to Trump. Uh, but it's going to cost us a lot of money. The war is going to cost us a lot of money. The peace, if we ever get it, is probably going to cost us even more money.
Uh, where's that money going to come from? They're they're going to borrow it and they're going to print it. It's going to drive people out of the dollar and into gold and and silver. So, the metals should be rising on this news. It's the stock market that should be going down based on the prospects of bigger budget deficits and higher inflation.
In fact, it should be obvious by now that Iran now controls the straight of her. They had no control over it before the war, nor did they have any pretense to take control. And in fact, had we done nothing, had we not started a war against Iran and Iran had just taken over the strait, the whole world would have united around us uh to repel that, to put a stop to that because they would have been the bad guys.
But we gave Iran an excuse to do what they probably always wanted to do, but could never find an excuse to do it until we dropped it in their lap. So, we basically fell into their trap by attacking them and created a pretext for them to take over the straight. And now they're going to be charging a toll probably forever uh for the ships that are going through there.
That is going to substantially increase the cost of everything that transports through that uh straight, which is going to be food and energy in particular because fertilizer and and oil and gas, right? So, those prices are going to be permanently higher. This is bad news. I mean, maybe it's good news for the oil stocks, but you know, it's not good news for the overall stock market.
It's not good news uh for the economy. And that's good news for gold and silver because bad news for the economy means more government stimulus, more inflation, more money printing. The irony of this is that everything that's happening is bearish for stocks, yet stocks are going up, is bullish for gold and silver, yet gold and silver are going down.
Now, bonds also went down, which is bearish for the stock market and the economy. The yield on the 10-year Treasury closed above 4.5% on a weekly basis. Now, 4.56 is the 10-year. And on the 30-year, we're now back above five 506. And more significant than where the yields are now is where the yields are headed.
Because if you look at a chart of the bond market, it looks to me like there's going to be a major breakdown uh in in that market. uh we're going to see a sharp fall in the price of of bonds and that means a big rise in the the yields and that is a big negative for the stock market. It's a negative for the economy.
It's a negative for the housing market. In fact, the 30-year uh mortgage, I think, went out at about 6 and a half%. And I'm going to talk about housing uh after this uh this break that's coming up. Uh I got a lot to say about housing in this podcast. So I'm going to table that for a minute. But rising bond yields are obviously a negative for uh the real estate market.
So and a negative for the real estate market is bullish for gold and silver because what happens if we have a big drop in the real estate market? Well, the Fed has to come in and bail everybody out. We get more money printing. we get more inflation. So, I do believe that the precious metals market is setting up for a major move up and the stock market is setting up for a major move down.
Okay, before I get into housing, just a couple more uh markets I wanted to mention. The dollar was flat on the week, which I thought was significant in that the dollar didn't get a bump out of the renewed war. And so I think that's a bearish sign for the dollar, which again is a bullish sign for gold and silver.
And oil prices up about 5%. I think oil prices are going a lot higher. In fact, I'm surprised oil didn't move up even more this week. So I expect oil prices to continue to build on these gains, which are ultimately going to be bearish for the bond market, which should be bearish for the stock market and bullish for gold and silver.
I think it's irrelevant uh to Bitcoin. I mean, Bitcoin has already proven that it's not correlated to gold. It's not cor correlated to tech stocks anymore. Although, I believe that when tech stocks go down, Bitcoin will be correlated. It just doesn't go up when tech stocks go up. But when tech stocks go down, it's going to go down a lot more.
But I want to pivot and and talk about housing. And that's because this new bill, the 21st century road to housing bill, will become law on Saturday without the president's John Hancock. Uh Donald Trump refused to sign this bill. Uh and he shouldn't sign it. It's a bad bill. Now, I thought he should have vetoed it, but it passed with such overwhelming support that even if Trump vetoed the bill, Congress could have overrode it.
And maybe Trump didn't want to have that fight. He didn't want to risk the embarrassment of having his veto overridden. I mean, if I was Trump, I would have vetoed it. I would have been proud to veto it and I would have tried to convince some other Republicans to stand with me and and and reverse their votes.
But I think he realized he didn't have the numbers and so he just didn't sign the bill. Now, he his excuse for not signing it was not like, "Oh, it's a bad bill. I don't want to sign it." He basically said, "Look, unless uh I get the Save America Act signed, I ain't signing this bill." So, he was kind of holding his signature hostage to this other bill.
And I'm going to talk about the Save America Act a bit in the next segment. Uh right now, I want to talk about about housing. So, he's not signed the bill, but it's going to become law. Now, anything that has overwhelming bipartisan support is probably a bad bill. I mean, pretty much you you you can tell when you have a consensus where the Democrats and the Republicans, they both like it, you got to know it's bad because it's full of goodies.
And the whole idea behind this bill is that it's going to make housing more affordable. That they're addressing this housing affordability crisis, which we have. In fact, that was confirmed yesterday. We got some housing numbers. We got existing home sales, which unexpectedly fell. Now, I I don't know why people didn't expect this, but they didn't.
They expected housing uh sales to rise, existing home sales. Instead, they fell by 2.4%. on the month year-over-year. Now, Peter Schiff's message to gold and silver investors is clear. Don't let short-term price swings distract you from the long-term trend. He believes the recent pullback in precious metals doesn't change the bigger picture.
According to Schiff, rising government debt, expanding fiscal deficits, and elevated interest rates continue to increase long-term inflation risks. He also points to higher Treasury yields and a weakening housing market as signs that the economy could face growing pressure in the months ahead if economic conditions deteriorate.
Schiff believes policymakers could once again turn to easier monetary policies, increasing inflation over time. He also warns that ongoing geopolitical tensions and higher energy prices could keep inflation elevated by increasing the cost of transportation, manufacturing, and food. Meanwhile, central banks around the world have continued adding gold to their reserves in recent years, reinforcing gold's role as a long-term store of value during periods of economic uncertainty.
Shift's bottom line is simple. Focus on the long-term fundamentals, not daily market noise. He believes gold and silver remain important wealth preservation assets in an environment of rising debt, persistent inflation, and economic uncertainty. Now, here's the key takeaway. Uh, home sales are up but only 2.8%.
As of the prior month, they were up 3.2%. But what's also significant and not unrelated is that home prices rose to the highest ever. So people aren't buying houses, but housing prices are going up, right? Which maybe doesn't even make sense because you would think that people would have to be buying houses to push the price up.
They're not buying them and the price is going up anyway. But one of the reasons they're not buying is because the prices are going up. If prices were coming down, then maybe more people could afford to buy. But because prices keep going up, they can't buy. And so sales are falling. And so there is an affordability crisis.
Homes have never been less affordable than they are right now. In all of American history, housing has never been less affordable. And that flies in the face of over 50 years. In fact, more than 50 years. I mean, it started in the 1930s. So, 90 years, right? But ever since the 1930s, the government has decided to make home ownership a priority to make it easier for people to buy homes, to make housing more affordable.
Yet, it's more unaffordable than ever. And you know what? That is not a coincidence. That's not irony. That is actually the predictable consequence of America's policy. So here you have Congress passing this 21st century road to housing bill pretending that this is going to solve the affordability problem.
It is going to do nothing to solve that problem. But the problem itself was created by Congress. The US government is the reason that housing is so unaffordable. And this bill will do nothing about that. What the bill does do is destroy private property rights because it restricts ownership of single family homes.
It says that companies that own I think it's like a 350 homes or whatever it is, there's a certain cut off and once you own that many homes, you can't buy anymore. And they're thinking that this is the reason that housing is so expensive is because you have these big corporations buying houses. They're a small part of the market.
Maybe in a couple of cities it could be significant, but overall this is not going to make much of a difference. But what everybody is overlooking is not the fact that you're diminishing the right of a corporation to buy property, but you're diminishing the rights of the owner of that property to sell it to whoever he wants.
I mean, if I own a piece of property, I should be able to sell my property to anybody I want. But the government is saying, "No, you can't sell it to a company that already owns a bunch of houses, even if that company is willing to pay you a higher price than everybody else." So, you're diminishing my property values.
You're diminishing my rights as an owner of property to sell it to the highest bidder. So, I think it's a slippery slope of uh taking away property rights. I think it's unconstitutional that they're doing this, but so many things the government does is unconstitutional anyway. So uh I don't expect that many uh congressmen to to to you know vote against it based on constitutionality but it is bad policy to do this and it is also going to result in fewer homes being built uh because the investor pool to buy them is diminished.
I think it will result in fewer single family homes for rent which means higher rents for single family homes which will impact people who want to rent them. Uh but I want to get into the bigger issue and that is what the government has done to the housing market. All the government policies that are designed to make home ownership more affordable actually made homes more expensive.
The main policies the government has is you got the FHA, Federal Housing Authority, a Federal H Federal Housing Agency, which you know guarantees mortgages directly, low down payment mortgages. And then you got Fanny and Freddy uh which were created which have implicit now explicit government guarantees where they can buy up mortgages, repackage them and and issue them with government guarantees.
All of this is designed to make it easier for people to borrow more money to go out and buy houses. Also, the tax code incentivizes a home purchase by giving you a deduction for your mortgage interest. And so, when people are looking at the cost of a home versus the cost of renting, they take into account the tax deductibility of the interest to the extent that they itemize.
that most homeowners would itemize. Uh they would take advantage of that deduction. And so the tax deductibility of mortgage interest as well as property taxes and things like that reduces the the the money that you spend. But all of this increases demand. If you make it so people can borrow more money to buy houses, they have more money to spend on houses.
If you allow people to deduct their mortgage, they can borrow more money to pay higher prices. Now, if the government gave one person those benefits, if one guy could deduct the mortgage interest uh or um got a guaranteed loan, yeah, sure, that would help that one guy because now he can go and buy a house and and and and save money.
But if everybody has the same benefit, if everybody can go out and deduct their mortgage, if everybody can get a government guaranteed mortgage, then everybody is just bidding against one another, everybody has more money to buy houses. So what happens? The price of houses goes up. It's not rocket science.
If you if you increase demand, then price goes up. That's what happens. And so the government's policies have backfired. Instead of making home ownership more affordable, they've made it more expensive. Housing is overpriced. But also because of all these government subsidies that stimulated demand, right?
And none of this is the free market. The free market would have produced an opposite result. If we had a free market in housing, there would be no affordability crisis. Housing would be very affordable and very plentiful, just like everything that the free market provides. It's not an accident that the where the government is most involved.
Education, health care, housing, that's where prices keep going up. It's because the government doesn't allow the market to work. Peter Schiff believes the biggest risks to investors aren't over. Rising debt, persistent inflation, elevated interest rates, and global uncertainty could continue to reshape financial markets.
whether you agree with his outlook or not. Understanding these macroeconomic trends can help you make better informed investment decisions. Now, we want to hear from you. Do you think gold and silver are preparing for their next major breakout, or will stocks continue to lead the market? Share your thoughts in the comments below.
If you enjoy expert insights on gold, silver, investing, and the global economy, don't forget to subscribe, turn on the notification bell, and hit the like button. Thanks for watching and we'll see you in the next
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