저자: 미상 · 외국인
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2016년 4월 기준 워런 버핏·존 폴슨·조지 소로스가 미국 주식을 대거 매도하고 있다며, 2016년 시장 폭락 가능성을 경고하는 다큐멘터리 형식 영상. 버핏 지주회사 버크셔해서웨이는 2012~2014년 사이 존슨앤드존슨 지분을 96.8% 줄였고, 크래프트 지분 99.7%를 매도했으며, P&G 지분도 약 11.5% 축소한 것으로 제시. 반면 웰스파고·US뱅코프 지분은 늘리고 아메리칸익스프레스 지분은 유지했다고 설명. 폴슨은 JP모건, 패밀리달러, 샤라리 등을 처분했고, 소로스 펀드는 2014년 1분기 JP모건·뱅크오브아메리카·씨티그룹 지분을 매도하고 MS 지분을 줄였다고 주장. 경제 지표 측면에서 실업률 6% 미만이지만 불완전고용 14.6%, 임금 정체, 가계부채 증가, 식품보조 수급자 7명 중 1명 등을 근거로 실물경기 회복이 허약하다고 평가. 미국 GDP의 70% 이상이 소비지출이며 S&P500 PER 약 25.7배로 10년 평균보다 높다고 지적. 연준의 양적완화 종료로 저금리 환경이 끝나 주가 상승 동력이 약화됐다고 분석. 2013~2015년 GDP 성장률 1.9%, 2.4%, 2.4%와 IMF의 2016년 세계성장률 전망 하향(3.4%)을 근거로 S&P500 기업 매출의 약 40%가 유럽에서 나오는 점을 들어 대외 리스크를 강조. 결론적으로 버핏·폴슨·소로스가 2016년 미국 증시의 폭락 또는 중대한 조정 가능성을 인식하고 있다고 주장하며, 일반 투자자도 더 안정적인 투자처로 이동할 것을 권유. 영상 끝부분에서는 역사상 주식시장이 회복하지 못한 적은 없다고 언급하며 장기적 회복 가능성도 함께 제시. 출연자 전망은 미상이며 채널 내레이션 중심의 설명임.
다듬은 글
Warren Buffett predicting upcoming stock market crash billionaires dumping stocks stock market crash on the way when it comes to investing in the stock market we're told to follow the smart money who might that be the most influential investors businessmen in America today are Warren Buffett John Paulson and George Soros their investing acumin has helped them amass billions of dollars and millions of followers with the Stock Market trading at record highs one would think they're still snapping up US Stocks the NASDAQ is up 232 since the markets bottomed in March 2009 and the New York Stock Exchange is up 126% the most important stock market indices are keeping Pace the SNP 500 has climbed more than 180% and closed above 2,000 for the first time ever in August 2014 the Dow Jones Industrial Average has increased 145% but should we follow the smart money when they're shedding American stocks some of the most visible and vocal billionaire investors are turning their backs on US stocks are they preparing for a stock market crash in 2016 and should we follow suit over the last couple of years Warren Buffett's holding company Burk Shear Hathaway has been dumping its exposure to American stocks that rely on consumer spending for example at the end of the second quarter of 2012 birkar Hathaway held 10.33 million shares of Johnson and Johnson one at the end of the second quarter of 2014 it held only 327,00 shares to over a 2 year period Buffett's holding company sold off 96.8% of its Holdings in Johnson and Johnson Burk Shear Hathaway also called its Holdings in craft Foods Group Inc NASDAQ krft in the second quarter of 2012 Warren Buffett's holding company held 58,800 66 6 shares that represents a 99.7% selloff in position number seven the Proctor and Gamble company ny/ PG is still one of Warren Buffett's top Holdings that said Burk Shear Hathaway currently owns 52 m793 78 shares of Proctor and Gamble or 2% of the company but four years ago it held 59.6 million shares in just four years Warren Buffett has dumped 11.5% of his Holdings in Proctor and Gamble what stocks does Warren Buffett think will do well in a correction since the beginning of 2012 birkar Hathaway has increased its holding in Wells Fargo and Company nwfc by 23% us ban Corp ny/ USB by 23% and still has a huge stake in American Express company n ax it appears as though other well-known billionaire investors are predicting a major correction and shedding their once heavyweight US Stocks to billionaire investor John Paulson's hedge fund Paulson and Co is unloading certain US Stocks including JP Morgan Chase and Co ny/ JPM Family Dollar stores Inc nyfo and the Sarah Lee Corporation also read four strategies to protect yourself from a stock market crash billionaire business magnate George sorus is the chairman of sorus fund management which sold out its Holdings in several banking Giants in the first quarter of 2014 including JP Morgan Bank of America Corporation nbac and City Group Inc n/c between the three Banks sorus fund management sold more than a million shares three it didn't take long for sorus to lose faith in the US markets the divesture comes only a quarter after his fund purchased a stake in JP Morgan and City Group the fund also eliminated its stakes in Alcoa Inc n/a and JC Penny Company Inc ny/ JCP and decreased its stakes in Liberty Global PLC NASDAQ General Motors Company ncgm and Microsoft Corporation NASDAQ msft the funds decreased holding in Microsoft comes just two quarters after it actually increased its stake significantly stock market lurching toward crash as economic Outlook weakens despite the stock markets record run in Washington's assurances that the economy is getting better some of America's wealthiest billionaires aren't convinced in fact their recent actions suggest some sort of Market crashes on its way do they know something you don't not really the data is out there for everyone to see unfortunately Wall Street is too busy ignoring the warning signs the stock market is supposed to be a reflection of the economy but right now it isn't that's because most Americans aren't even aware we're in the midst of a recovery not unlike the stock market the US economy looks good on paper the us unemployment rate is under 6% interest rates are low and the economy is picking up steam four dig a Little Deeper though and you will discover that the underemployment rate is still at an unacceptable 14.6% 5 wages are stagnant personal debt levels are high and one in seven Americans are on food stamps six plus more than half of Americans are still living paycheck to paycheck seven for the world world's biggest economy these are not the makings of an economic recovery nor are they the foundation for sustainable economic growth especially when you consider the fact that the US gets more than 70% of its gross domestic product GDP from consumer spending this might explain why some of the country's wealthiest investors are dumping certain US Stocks it's quite possible that Warren Buffett John Paulson and George sorus also think US stocks are in a bubble and why not stocks have a price to earnings ratio of 25.67514 higher than their 10-year average 8 if the economy and strong corporate earnings and revenues haven't been driving the stock market higher then what is the stock market has been doing well because it's the only Avenue investors can turn to also these economic indicators point to a possible stock market crash in 2016 Federal Reserve shuts off tap that propelled stock market higher in 2008 the Federal Reserve introduced its first round of quantitative easing QE to help Kickstart the US economy after it slipped into a recession it was hoped that by artificially lowering the short-term lending rate to nearly zero Banks would more readily lend money to both businesses and individuals RS the low interest rate environment did three things it essentially took income out of once reliable stable fixed income Investments like treasuries bonds and CDs it made it easy to borrow money and it also meant that the stock market was the only Avenue for investors looking to make money after 6 years the Federal Reserve has turned the Easy Money Taps off this is bad news for investors since the low interest rate environment is generally recognized as being the fuel that has propelled the stock market increasingly higher overvalued stocks are going to have to rely on real revenues and earnings to propel them higher judging by the shape of the US economy this is going to be a difficult task in 2013 the year that the overall markets soared US GDP growth was just 1.9% for 2014 US GDP grew 2.4% % in 2015 the advance estimate for US GDP growth was 2.4% the same rate as in 2014 n the global economy could have a real drag on the US economy in 2016 the IMF cut its outlook for Global growth in 2016 to 3.4% dot1 this is bad news when you consider that roughly 40% of the public companies that make up the SNP 500 get sales from Europe the outlook for the stock market looks bleak Buffett Paulson and sorus understand this and the reality of the US economy has led them to see there is a real good chance the US markets could experience a crash or serious correction in 2016 hopefully everyday investors will be able to see the same thing and put their money in more stable Investments after all there's never been a crash the stock market hasn't recovered from
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