저자: ChamathPalihapitiya · 외국인
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결론: 비트코인은 정부 정책 실패에 대한 헤지 수단으로 소액 보유할 가치가 있다는 주장. 비트코인의 역할: 법안·금융 인프라와 연결된 다른 자산(주식, 채권, 부동산, 상품)과 달리 비트코인은 정부 의사결정과 상관성이 낮아 대안 자산으로 제시된다. 포트폴리오 전략: 포트폴리오의 1%를 비트코인에 넣고 가격을 보지 않은 채 보유하라고 권한다. 최악의 경우 나머지 99%를 지키는 보험이며, 성공하면 비대칭적 수익이 난다는 논리다. 정부 정책 비판: 재정적자와 부채가 급증했고, 미국 정부 부채가 GDP의 50%를 넘어 사실상 사회주의적 구조라고 주장한다. 의료·교육비는 높은데 혜택은 없다고 평가한다. 시점에 대한 견해: 2008년 금융위기 이후 여섯 번 이상의 양적완화가 있었지만 특정 한 사건이 '비트코인의 순간'이 되지는 않는다고 본다. 나쁜 결정이 쌓이는 패턴이 중요하며, 그 패턴을 기다리는 것이 오히려 과도한 투기를 부른다고 본다. 비트코인의 실사용: 결제 수단으로서의 가치에는 회의적이다. WhatsApp, 캐시앱, 벤모 등 더 편리한 결제 도구가 등장해 송금이 즉시·무료로 이뤄질 것이므로, 비트코인의 사용처는 제품보다 투자 수단(instrument)으로 좁아질 것이라고 본다. 리스크: 비트코인 베팅이 성공하면 세계 금융 질서에 파괴적 영향을 줄 수 있다고 언급한다. 비트코인의 근본 가치를 어디서 찾을지에 대한 의문도 제기한다.
다듬은 글
I mean just to use a stark example it's kind of morbid but you know if you put a pilot who's not a great pilot who actually really wanted to be a schoolteacher in the cockpit of a plane that person is much more likely to make a mistake that has huge consequences than a person who lives in breeds wanting to be a pilot and that's also true with legislators and so the reality is that you know we have folks that will focus on short term window dressing type solutions again you can see it today in in what the in what the Fed and the Treasury are doing you know we've massively increased the deficit and the debt you know the United States is now the United States government is now responsible for more than 50% of the GDP which essentially makes us a you know quasi communist country socialist country at a minimum except without any of the benefits so you know you still have sky-high health care and you know exorbitantly high useless education so it's kind of like the worst form of socialism dummy socialism and so you know when when those kinds of things are happening and they're not getting fixed and they're only getting exacerbated I just think that if people have been hard working with their head down they should have an opportunity to make sure that they don't get wiped out if the government itself just continues to make a string of bad decisions that then have rising consequences and Bitcoin to me is the only thing that I've seen so far that is really fundamentally uncorrelated to that decision-making process and to that decision-making body because at the end of the day any other asset class equities debt real estate commodities they're all tightly tightly coupled to a legislative framework and an interconnectedness in the financial markets that brings together many of the government's that are sort of behaving this way and so it's almost like a a bet against the ruling class in some ways and making sure that you have a small amount of insurance because these insurance again insurance is not something that pays off 50 cents to the dollar the insurance is something that pays off you know 1,000 bucks to a buck you want these massive massive asymmetric payoffs because you want to be sure that a small amount of insurance can basically make you whole and that's why I just think that you know you should take one percent of your portfolio put it in Bitcoin never look at it don't look at the price don't look at anything and hope that one percent goes to zero then you have the ninety-nine percent but in the case where that 99 percent goes to zero that one percent will probably be worth 120 percent and you'll feel like a genius but I guess what I'm confused about is you know if you feel that the government isn't handling the coronavirus response time een in terms of you know handling the stimulus and dealing with that economic fallout in the best way then why is it that you feel that this wouldn't be the moment when that uncorrelated asset would be something that people could turn to look the government has done you know depending on how technically you want to get six or seven forms of quantitative easing since the great financial crisis so we could have picked any one of those moments and said this is bitcoins moment and what I'm trying to get across to you is that you know it's there there is no seminal event and I think that people waiting for a seminal event probably create more speculation than is healthy for Bitcoin I think that you know this is a parade of terrible's it's it's a bunch of small things that eventually add together bring down the entire you know way in which we think the the financial infrastructure of the world works we will lose credibility in it there will not be a single thing Laura that you will be able to point to this will be the sum of many many bad decisions and it's the compounding of bad decisions and you know historians will try to pinpoint an event and I think it'll be not worth the time I just think that this isn't a it's a pattern and you know when you see the pattern I think you just have to be prepared to hedge it be on the other side of it hope the pattern stops because quite honestly if your Bitcoin bet pays off it will be cataclysmically destructive for the world and that'll have enormous consequences to many people that we all know and care about who weren't hedged in Bitcoin and so you all know wanted to happen and really only can see one path to what success you don't see any other reason for it to succeed even in a world where not everything else comes crashing down not really you know I mean I think that people could claim that it's a more frictionless payment mechanism or payment rails I don't really buy that I think that there are much easier to use products that eventually will become you know virtual payment mechanisms that connect the world whether it's whatsapp or the cash app or venmo or we pay all of these things will eventually be threaded together in an underlying framework that will allow seamless money transfer zero cost instantaneously you know in a ledger that's that's that gives you a sense of security and transparency all of these things I think will eventually happen and so the use case for Bitcoin I think become less and less as a product and more and more as an instrument and again then you have to think about what the underlying value of the instrument is you know people
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