저자: 짐크레이머 · 외국인
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코로나 공포로 국채금리 급락·안전자산 쏠림이 나타났으나, 치명률 1.4% 등 파우치 연구 인용을 근거로 3월 3일 시장이 급반등했다고 설명한다. 크레이머는 이 반등을 과거 독감 수준의 치명률 가정에 기대는 것으로 보며, 재택경제 관련주 선호와 여행·외식·크루즈 회피를 권한다. 다만 감염병 자체는 여전히 심각하며 금리 인하로는 공중보건 위기를 해결할 수 없다고 강조한다. 핵심 주장: 공포(감염 우려)가 경제 활동 위축과 안전자산 쏠림을 만들고 있다. 근거 수치: 10년물 국채금리 약 1.15%, 치명률 1.4%(1099명 확진자 연구), 다우 1294포인트 상승(당시 역대 최대), S&P500 4.6%, 나스닥 4.49% 상승. 시장 대응: 공포로 인한 급락 시 매수, 반등 시 매도 전략 제시. 종목 언급: 웬디스(아침 메뉴 호재, 긍정적), 업스(주가 52주 저점 반등·배당 4.3%, 긍정적), 치즈케이크팩토리·다든레스토랑·올리브가든 등 외식주는 매수 비추천, 여행·크루즈주는 회피 권고. 리스크: 치료제·백신 개발 전까지 여행·외식 수요 위축 지속, 기업 대응 능력에 따른 차별화. 정책 제안: 치료제·백신 개발자에게 1억 달러 비과세 보상, 중소기업 신용한도 확대. 출연자 전망: 감염병 확산이 최악 시나리오로 가지 않을 것이라 보며, 여행·외식주 약세와 재택 관련주 강세를 전제한다.
다듬은 글
bad money starts now hey I'm Kramer welcome to mere money welcome to Kramer akka I'll people and make friends trying to make some money my job not just to entertain you but to educate and Kramer huge day I get that how do you explain it I think it's about two numbers here are the numbers one point one five and one point four yep I'm talking about the plummeting yield on the benchmark ten-year Treasury where you only get one point one five percent return how weird is that and one point four percent and that's the apparent rate of lethality for the dreaded clone of virus at least it's what we think it is while bond yields have kept falling signaling real fears about where this economy's headed and I share this that 1.4 percent with Ally number is much better of course than two percent number we've been worried about with this outbreak which along with the cessation the made by him Treasuries is very afternoon it's a major reason why the mark was able to rebound today Dow skyrocketing one thousand two hundred and ninety four points here that was the biggest one-day point gain ever the SP surging 4.6% and the nasdaq pull voting four point four nine percent okay I don't wanna be simplistic here but this markets become ridiculous evolve because it's controlled by fear that's the physical fear of getting sick the fear of a slowdown in commerce says people are become reluctant to go outside and the impact of that fear which is causing investors to hide their money in safe haven Treasuries like safe phase and Treasuries which are giving almost no yoke that's driving the prices up and their yields down now we've seen the most my new changes in Treasury yields produce wild swings in stocks it is literally over a bull market the futures were down about 40 ticks when I went to bed they're up 60 ticks when I woke up at 3:00 a.m.
that's kind of insane and tells you about how thin the futures are it also does it says that the market is unhealthy and by the way today's rally is unhealthy I don't like to see these kinds of rallies I don't like to see the big decline so quickly I don't see the big increases like this but it's the actual events driving us either direction we have to talk about see we were down first on coronavirus desks and then jump thanks to talk of an emergency Fed meeting they never actually materialize what are you doing the times of extreme volatility like this do you just state just sit sit tight well you know I'm in favor of that always but I think you need to show some come soon and buy stocks when they come down the levels will you find them attractive as we did on Friday this morning and then sell them when they bounce the levels that are no longer enticing the futures are distorting everything here and while that makes it hard to get your bearings you can also give you some great entry and exit points at the end of the day you have to believe in yourself although you should remain willing to course-correct when you get it wrong that belief is your strength in times like this that's in my head today you know why it's because of the interactions I have with the legendary chat well it's the man who took GE from a twenty billion dollar company to a four hundred billion dollar company with the power of conviction and he passed away this weekend Jack who is loved that I believed in my views when I was kicked off the old squawk box vacation back in 1998 for being too rough around the edges he sent me a fax saying I was the most entertaining guy he'd ever see on cbc and he applauded me i showed the facts of the old management team in much to their chagrin i got myself back of the rotation more importantly you need some facts especially facts about this outbreak because the outbreak is all about fear and as I told you the fear then goes right down into a rush of stay-at-home Commerce see I think the facts in the concomitant reversal rates from the ridiculous lows that they allow that's what allowed the market to ordinary the facts and then the switch of the yields see there are very few people who have any real let's say gravitas when it comes to this coronavirus we hear these people come on TV and they say things but there's only one guy that we all Revere only one famous dr.
Tony Falchi and he did breakthrough work with aids and as part of the government's apparatus it was allegedly been silenced by vice-president pence but it's far now just being silenced is obviously his byline in the most distinguished publication in healthcare this weekend in healthcare forever but this weekend is byline and that's the New England Journal of Medicine in the single best article I have read on this epidemic and it's not a you know it's it's not to sell papers it's titled Cove in nineteen never gating the uncharted now she notes something huge there's a study of 1099 laboratory confirmed patients and they showed a mortality rate of 1.4 percent which is what we keep hearing about 1.4 1.1 point for why is it so important as Falchi explains if one assumes that the number of asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic cases is several times as high as reported cases the case fatality may be considerably less than 1% in other words the denominator is much bigger then maybe maybe we're not in as much trouble as before and here's the statement that I think gives credence to this rally quote this suggests that the overall clinical consequences of koban 19 may only be more akin to those of severe seasonal influenza boom we've been hearing that it might have a two percent fatality rate one point four percent is much lower than that and it's even possible that after reading this article you have to believe that one point four percent is way too pouchy goes on to note that the real number could be as low as 0.1 percent or like the 1968 flu season they killed 38,000 about thirty two thousand eight hundred or the 1957 flu scene they killed the clever one hundred and seven thousand to these terms the death rates for pandemics tend to be much higher overseas than they are here our health care system isn't perfect but it's a lot better than China's I felt somewhat reassured by this article that is available online and makes you put things in perspective for the first time since this began does it mean all this pain it was much ado about nothing absolutely not the coronal virus is still a serious problem diseases who easily transmitted that you could see many people deciding to stay at home and wait it out if they can afford it and that's why I keep recommending the stay at home economy stock so you zoom video Adobe we know that China has been practically shut down for the better part of a month and anyone who works in a business that shuts down because of the virus is going to take that hit that's why things it's a very good time to reevaluate reevaluate your profile sell the stocks are the strengths that we have that I think we're gonna continue to go down and accrue and do slow down for example even with a lower death rate you should stay the heck away from travel leaves your stocks because no one wants to catch the disease today so some research recommending Cheesecake Factory coupling fighters are digital dart of Dardan which parent Olive Garden I say uh-uh no no don't buy a restaurant stop going to a possible pandemic people are going to stay home and delivery business as much palooka if there's any way to cancel cruise on bechet's going to get cancelled after that Diamond Princess Fiasco my guest 18 months before the cruise lines can count on this on the reservation let's be real that's how long it took for people to get over to both these most recent foods are scare historically 18 months had been the pattern I see the same Hanneman carnival now since we're talking about financial markets I know that there will be an endless drumbeat of experts telling us that the Fed can solve the slowdown with lower interest rates this is a public health problem now you can't cure the corona virus with monetary policy think about who benefits from lower rates I'm currently the process of getting a mortgage I have a great credit rating yet the mortgages half a point higher than what I was paying with the benchmark 10-year Treasury was double where it is now manat lower than those rates I'm not opposed to Fed adding liquidity but it doesn't do much to fix a slowdown it's caused by a public health crisis no amount of rate cuts will make people go outside if they're afraid to get in sick of course there are things the government to make things easier I am proposing right here right now that if I were president I would offer a hundred million dollars whoever comes up with a decent treatment for the disease or a couple vaccine yes a scientist a company I don't care 100 mil tax-free if I were Treasury secretary I make sure that small businesses get credit lines so they can stay in business even if that's closed down temporarily and therefore they can still pay their employees that said there are other reasons we rally maybe you think it's the resurgent Joe Biden who the Democratic stab wounds now circle the wagons around in order to fend off Bernie Sanders status quo Joe was much better than the market for the market that birdie maybe they'll be an emergency Fed meeting maybe you think there will be a lot of central bank intervention and maybe think it's gonna be Chinese stimulus is tonight or every night but the bottom line I think stocks stored today because Wall Street realize that the coronavirus might be the equivalent of a severe flu season not great but it's not going to cause the endless economic devastation that you'd expect from a virus with a two percent fatality rate or one point four percent I'll take it and I bet by the way that the tenure goes back to one point four percent - hey why don't we go to fill us in New York Phyllis thank you so much for taking my call Jim I had I had called before yes and he gave a great big booyah booyah booyah - my largest holding which is Wendy and today I'm very excited because today was the breakthrough on the breakfast menu which came out and I thought it would be a great game changer I myself will deposit whose name the stock fell too much the breakfast is apparently all the good readings I have great memories of Wendy's constantly great reads breakfast is looking good so I think we're in good shape how about Jack and Ohio Jack hey thanks for taking my call Jimmy of course hey it's bouncing off its 52-week low but I know the competition is getting tight in this sector from watching your show ups I like ups 4.3 percent yield that's going to be terrific stay at home tuition which I think we're still gonna have to even though I know that we have I think that we're making some headway against the virus and it's run by David Anthony I think he does a very very good job I like them alright this volatility is unheard of people using to reevaluate your portfolio and to use some gumption and get your prices to buy or of course in the strength get rid of the ones that aren't going to work via Bunny tonight stocks bouncing back if we were sweet since the financial crisis is time to start hunting for buys stocks we may know if their highs hey I'm gonna sit down with this to of beyond me see if one of the hottest stocks in this market is still worth considering then this you of Twitter could be looking for a new job soon as Elliott management presses for big changes in the company what could it mean for the stock going forwards right no we you care about and it won't where people are more more likely to be working remotely puppies need a well-developed Digital backbone I'm I one company that could help
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