저자: ChamathPalihapitiya · 외국인
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게임스탑 공매도 스퀴즈 논란을 두고 개인 투자자의 모멘텀 매매를 옹호하고, 규제로 개인을 막기보다 기관 레버리지와 공매도 구조를 고쳐야 한다는 주장. 게임스탑은 공매도 잔고가 유통주식의 136%에 달해 비정상적 구조가 원인이라는 점을 지적하며, 개인이 이를 노린 것을 비난하는 것은 비미국적이라고 주장. 게임스탑은 합리적인 사업 모델을 가진 회사이며, 과거 주당 7~10달러 수준에서 주가가 올라 공매도 세력이 손실을 본 것은 규칙 변경의 이유가 될 수 없다고 봄. 테슬라도 몇 달 만에 10배 오른 사례가 있어, 가치 판단은 각자 모델에 따른 것이며 누구도 정답을 알 수 없다는 입장. 다만 게임스탑 350달러, AMC 등 일부 종목은 펀더멘털로 설명되지 않는 모멘텀 흐름이라고 인정하며, 이 과정에서 손해를 보는 것은 결국 개인 투자자일 가능성이 크다고 경고. 퀀트 헤지펀드 등 기관도 모멘텀 기반 매매를 하므로, 개인의 모멘텀 매매만 문제 삼는 것은 이중 잣대라고 비판. 해결책은 개인 거래 제한이 아니라 기관의 위험 감수 구조, 공매도 허용 조건, 펀드 레버리지 비율 등 제도적 전제를 고치는 것이라고 주장. 개별 종목에 대한 명확한 가격 목표나 1~3개월 방향 예측은 제시하지 않음.
다듬은 글
degree can see their stocks rise in this magnitude and all of that is just fine that there's nothing wrong with the integrity of the system if that is occurring the the lack of integrity in the system is the precursor that caused gamestop to be sold short 136 percent and for people to try to pile on and destroy a company in front of our eyes that to me feels wrong that feels pretty un-american if you ask me i think gamestop is a reasonable business you know i think what they do is reasonable and so the fact that they shouldn't be allowed to exist because all of a sudden like we decide that they should be obliterated into the ground well that should be elected they should be allowed to exist at whatever their stock is should be valued at based on what their earnings are and this stock was like free market seven ten dollars not that long ago who says that who says that are you do you want to make the same argument about tesla it's gone 10x in a few months you don't know what it's worth let's be honest okay you don't think that tesla's growth process i have scott i have my own model for the company i'm allowed to underwrite however i want to own it everybody that bought that stock is also underwriting how they want to own it and the point is just because you're wrong doesn't mean you get to change the rules especially when when you were wrong you got billed out the last time that's not fair but doesn't mean that that these these investors who were short the stock were necessarily wrong i mean i still haven't heard i still haven't heard you tell me what the fundamental case is for gamestop at 350 or amc theaters which are have been closed for months and months and months is worth what the stocks trading at now or any number of these things the way that they're trading there's no fundamental reason why they're there they're trading because there's this momentum cohort behind it whether it's on reddit or robinhood wherever else but why but scott why why is that all of a sudden so wrong to you this kind of momentum trading because for example if you look under the hood on every quant strategy organized quantitative strategic hedge funds on wall street those things are all momentum shops they trade day over day massively levered small swings so basically what you're saying is hey if retail runs a momentum play to squeeze a short that's wrong but hey if renaissance technologies and somebody else does it that's okay that's what you're saying you may not know that that's what you're saying but that's what you're saying and to me that feels very unknown oh no what i'm saying is someone's gonna get screwed okay someone's gonna get screwed and it's gonna be the one of the retail it's gonna be a retail investor who gets screwed because they think that this is the way the game works that this is the new wall street they're new to this game maybe they haven't been in the game that long not everybody not trying to say that in any way shape or form but somebody's gonna get hurt i'm not talking about the billionaire with the big house and the hamptons i'm talking about the person who thinks this is cool fun and an exciting way to spend their time i'm not i'm not i'm not taking away that there's an element of that but you're really discounting how smart so many of these people are okay and all i would encourage you to do is spend a little time in these forums go into the discord server and you're not going to hear a bunch of bros just sloshing around you're going to hear a bunch of really really smart people talking about things in fundamental ways don't tell me that yesterday amc entertainment was was uh you know five dollar stock and today it's up 170 and that's justified don't tell me that some of these names are justified to be where they are it's one company in one moment of time what i'm saying is you're there's like 10 companies 15 companies 20 companies you're broadly sweeping with a broad brush that says these guys don't know what they're doing and they don't deserve to do what they are doing and what i'm telling you is there is a small part of momentum there is a part that's fundamental analysis and then there's a part that's just sticking it to the man i'm not taking you away from that but the reality is it's all allowed in a free market and all of a sudden if you start to gait decisions by individual people all you're going to do is systematically lock in institutional ways of making money for institutional clients and i don't think that's the solution if you want to go and address the solution fix how risk-taking happens at the institutional level fix the precondition fix the ability for these stocks to be so massively shorted in the first place change the business model of funds so that they're not forced to be these small net highly levered funds change the leverage ratios those are all institutional decisions but don't all of a sudden look at a short squeeze where money is being made by retail and all of a sudden say hey they could and may be the bag holder in the future so let's make sure that they can never
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