저자: HowardMarks/WarrenBuffett—대담영상기준,출연자소속은제목·설명근거상추정 · 외국인
요약 보기
두 투자자는 트럼프 행정부의 정책이 예측 불가능하며, 그 영향이 불확실하다는 점을 강조한다. 일론 머스크의 정부 역할이 테슬라에 긍정적이라는 논리는 매우 약하다고 보고 테슬라 매수는 권하지 않는다. 미국 경제는 상대적으로 양호하나 가격이 높아 좋은 가격에 사기 어렵고, 현 시점에 시장에서 빠질 때는 아니라고 본다. 정책은 정치적 결정에 달려 있어 투자자 자금으로 해결 불가능한 문제에 나서서는 안 된다는 입장이다.
다듬은 글
reports about our activities are in the press are erroneous. Now, now some are accurate, too. And then, of course, some are way out of date. I mean, that we get confidential treatment on our on the filings we make with the SEC as to our holdings. So, they're published well over a year after uh we filed them.
And therefore, there have been a couple of stories uh in the last month or two as to something we've bought. And of course, if you read the story carefully, it's we bought it a year and a half ago, maybe. And we may have sold it, we may have bought more, all kinds of things. So that uh uh I'd be careful about press reports generally.
Again, these things are very hard. Number number one, what's going to happen? Nobody knows. His appointments are not firm. They have yet to be confirmed. His policies are not known. What is he going to do? Nobody really knows what he's going to do. Um, number two, what else will be going on in the world?
He's not the only show. It It's complicated. Uh, number three, how will the market react to all these things? Uh, uh, number four, uh, the president's influence on most things is usually quite limited. Uh, number five, as I said before, our invest our economy is in good shape. So I it it in general things are going well in the United States and or better than most other places and that's why things are high in the United States.
So uh the situation is generally good but you're paying a lot for it. Uh we'd like to get a good situation at a bargain price. It's rarely the case. I don't think things are crazy high now and I don't think it's time to get out. Well, uh, I'm not smart enough to know the answer to that question. Uh, I think that this is a very unusual situation.
Uh, one we've rarely, if ever, seen before, a bromance, if you will, between a president and a and a founder of a company. Uh, uh, there's no doubt about the fact that Musk is, uh, brilliant, idiosyncratic. uh uh people have been talking about uh increasing efficiency in government and eliminating fraud and waste for decades.
I don't think anything's ever been done about it. And the question is uh I I I assume that what's going on means that Musk will do more about it than has been done in the past and then we'll get to see uh whether it works. But you know this is just one more thing which is so unpredictable and indeterminate that I don't think it's worth most investors doing anything about it.
So no point piling into Tesla. No, this is no the the the reasoning through which uh Trump's relationship with Musk and Musk's role in government produces an improved outlook for Tesla is is very attenuated. I wouldn't go there. Think that uncertainty, you know, and what do you do about developments in the in the political arena today?
Um uh you know, uncertainty is the word of the day. Um with in in normal circumstances, you try to figure out what you think will happen uh that's important in the long run in let's say the political arena and you maybe bias your plans a little bit toward that. Although again what should matter is the specifics of your companies and industries and not what goes on in the in in the in the so so-called big picture.
Uh but you have to admit today that we know less than usual about what the future holds in that regard. And uh you know I think that I think that uh this administration is less predictable than that's the problem, isn't it? It's unpredictable and uncertain. There's two there's two Yeah. feelings to it.
Yeah. Well, um I don't I don't know if the members of the administration could predict what they're going to do a year from now. I certainly know I can't. Uh I mean I I don't think you could enunciate uh a common thread that runs through these activities other than uh you know dislike of the establishment.
U but exactly how it's going to manifest itself, we don't know. M and uh you know uh we want uh tax cuts and smaller deficits. Um and we want um to discourage imports and control inflation. And uh there are many ways in which uh the individual manifestations uh of the attitude are in conflict with each other.
There's you know there's it's it's hard to find the common logic. Uh so uh you know most people you have a very strong view of what they stand for and what they're going to do in consequence. And I think today we we have to just watch to see uh how how this administration's uh predilictions determine its action.
But there's some problem. Yeah. There's some there's some problems that can't be solved. And we we shouldn't be in the business of taking your money, investors money, and and and tackling things that we don't know the solution for. And um uh there's you can present the arguments, but it's a political decision when you are dealing with states or the federal government.
And uh uh if you're in something where you're going to lose, the big thing to do is quit. And [sighs] you do you present your case as well as you can and everything else. But uh if you don't hold the pen in the end, uh you know, we don't have any business taking your money and uh doing dumb things with us and and we can do our best to explain what the intelligent things are, but uh it's your money.
And uh uh so it's it's very hard to tell how to to handle the questions of politically determined decisions that are going to go to court in many cases. But you know that that it just doesn't it doesn't make sense. We we know what we think a sensible system would be, but and we ought to explain what what what we think it is and and uh uh you know do the best to get our position because it's pro social to have the right solution to have it.
But uh the right solution [snorts] for example in the interstate wasn't to let 48 states each decide on their own way of doing it and award [snorts] contractors the jobs based you know there's just there's some problems that can't that can't be solved and we are not in the business of trying to solve insolvable problems.
Yeah. I'd even go for example. But then the problem you have, of course, is that the people that work for you, that's it's their job. So they they they they they want to have reasons to keep going. And uh that's a that's a it's those are tough choices if you're managing, but that's what's that's why they have managers.
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