원문 보기
holy bully this market is a complete disaster and it's also quite interesting because the yield curve is quite frankly steepening very strongly we have only inverted for about 36 hours back on april 1st and ever since then the market well since the inversion has essentially been going kind of straight down it's kind of if interesting if you actually look back and think about it it was essentially right when the yield curve inverted that that's it that was the beginning of the slide straight down we've been kind of crazy since though that yield curve has inverted we are now at the steepest level of the yield curve that we have been at uh since uh about the middle of february since about february 17th with a spread of about 49 basis points which ordinarily would signal hey if we only had an inversion for a day how could we have a recession but interestingly the argument is that oh don't worry the recession's already here and so the yield curve is just like no well if we're gonna have a recession gotta quickly invert and let everyone know anyway at the same time we've got break-even inflation rates dropping still which these should be good signals right a steepening yield curve should signal a strong economy uh and not a recession a uh declining a break even on the five-year treasure or even the uh you know short-term treasuries should indicate to us less runaway inflation or more anchored inflation expectations right now those levels are down again we're at uh now levels of inflation expectations are on february 28th obviously still elevated but rotating down just like used car prices are rotating down fright prices and shipping prices are also indicating signs of rotations down you've got though unfortunately the 10-year treasury yield sitting now at about 3.13 and yields just across the board rising there's really no way to go to safety you've got emerging markets that are getting hit value stocks are getting hit you've got bonds that are just getting decimated and the expectation is now that we broke three percent and i've kind of gone from three percent on the 10-year to now 3.13 that oh my gosh maybe we don't need to cap out around those 2018 levels this is actually something that we've been talking about on the channel that i don't actually think 2018 is going to be any kind of resistance point for treasure yields because we didn't have inflation back then now we do so to me it just wouldn't be a surprise to see the 10-year treasury yield rise to something like i don't know three and a half percent now do i think we're going to see a four handle on the three and a half trash who knows i have absolutely no idea but i think three and a half percent is entirely reasonable after that hey maybe the market can get a little bit more excessive uh it no markets tend to do that right we go excessive to extremes in either direction whether that's excessive to extremes in the positive direction or to the negative direction so what do we have right now well we've got a futures market that indicates the dow is going to open up down one point one percent the s p down one point five three percent nasdaq down roughly two percent actually now 2.02 percent uh at the same time we've also got a little bit of a fall in oil right now you've got oil actually rotating down slightly about two and a half percent both on wti and and brent now uh this also then of course brings up what happened with putin and victory day remember that's what i talked about yesterday was when you wake up see what happened putin and victory day and so of course as scheduled putin day occurred as we suspected putin called his denotification of ukraine a special military operation and remember these are some of the largest troop losses sustained since uh military operations in 2014 in the donbass region when the existing uh ukrainian government was overthrown in 2014 again now uh this parade is the most watched parade in ukraine uh sorry not in ukraine probably definitely not in ukraine in russia uh and uh and and putin didn't really give us any kind of guidance on what was to come next instead he gave brief justifications suggesting that without providing evidence that the united states or the west uh potentially just referring to ukraine here but implying in addition to western countries maybe just with western help we're preparing for the invasion of our land including crimea uh there were multiple hacks as well at the same time as this broadcast was going on and putin was suggesting these things including one hack that took control of smart tvs in russia and then changed the name or the title of every program to quote and it was sort of like a scrolling name because the name was a lot larger but imagine how when you're scrolling through the channels it might say like bbc right or fox news or whatever well that title was changed to quote on your hands is the blood of thousands of ukrainians and their hundreds of murdered children tv and authorities are lying no to war now russia was also planning an air display but that was cancelled due to weather reasons they say and they have been training these uh air defenses uh or sort of signals of air superiority strength uh over the last few days but that was possible for their show yesterday again apparently due to weather uh again nato uh was was referenced as a quote obvious threat to russia and ultimately quote urged europe to find a fair compromise and at the same time as you've got this you had zielinski who released a video uh saying we won on victory day we won we will win now too and this is him sort of referring to the past but then also kind of sending an innuendo today that no no we we've got this in the bag too uh and uh that uh that that will have a parade of victory as well but that uh victory will come to ukraine and we will not give up any bit of ukraine or any land and this is of course where folks are like oh no this does this actually mean things got worse not better right because we you know maybe about a month ago we're in this position where hey maybe this war will be over by me uh you know ukrainian officials mentioned by may by victory day we had uh i've sort of been expecting by the end of may but now you know here we are two and a half months in and no no real talks here on compromise of oh yeah okay uh let's carve out certain areas as a buffer zone or demilitarize maybe the donbass and figure out how we can operate these neutrally and provide assurances that ukraine will enjoy nato these things were talked about now just aren't coming up as much anymore so potentially leading to some of the red that we're seeing in the morning today but in addition to that you've got kind of this really interesting uh shift happening at companies but the question is are these companies companies that are really companies that we need to worry about like for example you've got robinhood laying off nine percent of its workforce you've got facebook freezing hiring and at the same time uber has now released a letter after earnings the ceo writes i spent several days meeting investors in new york and boston and it's clear the market is experiencing a quote seismic shift and we need to react accordingly he says my meetings were super clarifying and i wanted to share some thoughts with all of you as you read them please bear in mind that while investors don't run the company they do own the company and they've entrusted us with running it well we get to set the strategy and make decisions but we need to do so in a way that ultimately serves our shareholders in and their long-term interests so this is very interesting here you have a ceo going hey um just a heads up our bosses are saying we gotta clean up ship a little bit here so uh be prepared for what's next sound like the guy from family guy anyway in times of uncertainty investors look for safety they recognize that we are the scaled leader in our categories but they don't know how much that's worth uh channeling jerry maguire we need to show them the money we have made a ton of progress in terms of profitability setting a target of five billion dollars in adjusted debit for 2024 but the goal posts have changed it's now all about free cash flow remember this is something we talked about last week as well if you're in a profit list company or a money losing company we'd probably get out right and get into profitable companies because that's just been the trend over the last four months here there will be companies that put their heads in the sand and are slow to pivot the truth is that many of them will not survive so now we're talking about the potential forecasting of business bankruptcies coming in this sort of next wave here unless of course you uh you adapt uh uber ceo here talks about how the average employee at uber is barely 30 which means you've spent your career in a long and unprecedented bull run you know i love it when the old folks are like oh you don't know the next period will be different and will require a different approach rest assured we're not going to put our heads in the sand we will meet the moment oh here we go number two investors finally understand that we are a completely different animal than lyft ooh slam or other ride-sharing platforms they're incredibly excited about the pace of our innovation yeah how how could you in how much more could you innovate uber but all right whatever uh huge growth opportunities uh like hail bulls and taxi okay i think he's talking about auto taxis robo taxis right and they acknowledge that we are winning okay yet they don't know the size of the prize their questions run the gamut of has anyone other than you made money in on-demand transport to ride sharing has been around for a while why isn't anyone else profitable and they see how big the total addressable market is and just don't understand how this translates into significant profits and free cash flow we have to show them it's really interesting you really got the uber execs here i think they really believe that oh don't worry we're the best tesla's robo-taxis have no chance anyway keep going investors are happy with delivery's growth coming out of the pandemic and see we have performed better than most other pandemic winners i must admit and i was a bit surprised because i firmly believe delivery should be growing even faster the primary questions were is delivery a good business and what i mean honestly if these are the questions the executive of uber is getting quote is delivery a good business and why he's talking to some morons like who has these stupid questions but anyway uh like have you not read a single one of our earnings reports right anyway um their delivery is doing quite well in fact that's why their drive they have so much more driver retention than lyft at least that was sort of what we what we analyzed last week in the earnings call so i guess it's surprising to me that some of these questions seem so bland anyway um so talking about uh you know what happens if we enter a recession okay this gets more interesting right and so this is where he then goes into talking about investors who asked about freight love freight however less than 10 of them asked about it freight needs to get even bigger so that investors recognize its value and love it as much as i do number five meeting the moment means making trade-offs ooh here come here come the trade-offs the hurdle rate for our investments has gotten higher and that means some initiatives that require substantial capital will be slowed in other words probably bonuses uh we will have to make sure that our unit economics works work before we go big the least efficient marketing and incentive spend will be pulled back ooh pulling back on marketing spend that's not great we don't like to hear that uh we will treat hiring as a privilege and we'll be deliberate about where and when we add head count we will be even more hardcore about cross costs acosta across the board number six uh we have started to demonstrate the power of the platform which is a structural advantage that sets us apart as you know our strategy here is simple bringing consumers either on mobility or delivery encourage them to try another and tie everything together with a compelling membership program the advantage here is obvious but we have to show the value of our platform and real term dollars all right so kind of interesting talking a little bit about maybe preparing back on marketing talking about paying back on hiring or really being deliberate if they do hire someone this follows robin hood cutting follows a meta sort of freezing jobs right so we got to think about that and then the last thing the uber execs here say is we have to do all of the above while continuing to deliver an outstanding and differentiated experience for consumers and earners whether someone is looking is a booking rides for a summer trip with friends or a new parent relying on ubereats for everything from groceries to dinner and diapers it's on us to make sure the experience is excellent the same goes for anyone who comes to uber to earn we responded to the pandemic by becoming an earner-centric company essentially but we're innovating for earners literally blah blah blah whatever okay whatever so that's a letter to employees yesterday that obviously was like instantly leaked to the media and it really signals this this sort of malaise of oh no we have to you know batten down the hatches and and be a little less spendy and frothy and you know this makes sense right this is sort of what you would expect if you're in a recession or going into a recession now for me what what i think is fascinating about this is generally you see the most hiring cuts or job loss when you're already in a recession so if we start seeing other companies start saying oh no maybe we too need to start cutting and removing people from positions because we're overpaying or whatever maybe that's an indicator that you're actually starting to see more evidence that no no the recession is now now who knows we'll see what happens going into the q2 gdp uh report especially since you know we've now broken low levels uh and levels that we've been bouncing off previously on qqq and spy and so this creates a lot of fear and so then the question becomes how many layoffs do we potentially see and they said just reiterate the fact that maybe we're already in the depths of that recession now my thesis as to why the market is reacting the as horribly as it is that we're about to have this full candle break on the day chart on qqq below the zero percent fib is really because we're not getting great news from the big catalyst that we were expecting at the beginning of this month think about the catalyst that we've had so far we had a jobs report that reiterated the federal reserve can continue to hike when the federal reserve came out with their federal reserve fomc meeting we didn't hear hey we're going to do 150 basis point hike and then go back to 25 no we heard we're going to do three 50 basis point hikes which may as well have been a 50 a 75 and then a succession of uh of i'm sorry a 50 a 75 and then a succession of 25s right you may as well have had that now we did have a little bit of hopium this weekend that the federal reserve was suggesting hey well you know we've already tightened quite a bit we don't necessarily have to get extremely more aggressive here problem is nobody really believes the federal reserve right now right when we get catalysts that come and go and the market gets worse you get this almost self-fulfilling dyna dynamic that the direction we're going is down why because the fed's behind the curve and they're failing and they can't be trusted they've lost that credibility of trust that when the fed actually makes a statement over the weekend that we've already tightened a lot like we're on the right track now people don't believe it and so probably the strong jobs report combined with not believing the fed is a very strong catalyst for suggesting this market should be read beyond that victory day to some extent was a little bit of a nothing burger you kind of ended up with a victory day that gave us no clarity in terms of putin's intentions to potentially scale back his operation but on top of that folks what do we have in two days cpi numbers and most investors in my opinion are not looking at the cpi numbers going oh yeah they're going to you know the the estimates for cpi are substantially lower and that this wednesday could actually mark the beginning of a turning point in inflation which ultimately leads to the federal reserve likely taking a dovish u-turn at some point in the future which any time the fed takes a device u-turn that's usually your signal to be like okay time to go all in right it hasn't happened yet you know they've kind of suggested that they're getting ready for a double-shoe u-turn but they haven't actually made that double-shoe turn yet and uh uh but but what's what's the market doing right now nope nope nope don't believe it don't believe the cpi lie uh so i mean we'll see but this wednesday will obviously be very big with core cpi expected to sit at 0.4 percent month over month and headline cpi month over month expected to be 0.2 percent it's going to be some of the lowest numbers that we've had in uh in at least six to eight months so quite wild probably looking back to that time frame when we had a low inflation in the summer of 2021 before of course all this disaster really took off anyway that's probably why at least in my opinion market's selling off along with the fact that we're breaking that upper bound on the 10-year treasure so welcome to payne
댓글 0