저자: Jacob · 외국인
요약 보기
반도체 ETF(SMH, SOXX)는 2015년 이후 큰 상승을 보였으나 과거 수익이 미래를 보장하지 않는다고 설명. SOXX는 2001년 이후 나스닥100에 장기 하회한 구간이 있었음을 지적. 변동성 측면에서 SOXX는 20% 이상 하락이 13회로 S&P500(7회)보다 많고, 60% 하락도 2회 발생. 본인은 반도체 ETF 비중을 두지 않으며 분산 투자된 VGT를 보유 중. 장기적으로 반도체가 향후 5~10년 아웃퍼폼할 것 같다는 견해는 밝혔으나 리스크를 더 크게 본다고 결론.
다듬은 글
All right, semiconductors are absolutely on fire right now. I don't think that's a surprise to anybody. I want to take a look at this chart. And right here, we can see the SMH semiconductor ETF is up 1,351% from 2015 to now. And then there's the SOXX Semiconductor ETF up 1,022% from 2015 to now. And compare that to the NASDAQ up 484% which pretty solid.
And then the S&P 500 which is up 232% also pretty solid. It's like yeah those are good but I mean a,000% semiconductor ETF come on right? So I totally get it. And the question that you're asking yourself and I've asked myself is should I own semiconductor ETFs in my portfolio? And personally for me I don't own them.
I want to be transparent. I don't own them because I already feel like I get enough semiconductor exposure in other ETFs that I'm holding. So, for example, I'm holding Vanguard's VGT information technology ETF. There's about 320 holdings in there, and 32% of it are semiconductors. So, I feel like I don't need to expose myself anymore to semiconductor ETFs, but that's just me.
Some people want even more exposure. So, there are ETFs out there to fill that need. And the two most popular ones I think are VanX SMH ETF and then also uh Eyesshar's SOXX semiconductor ETF. So look are semiconductors going to go up over the next 5 to 10 years. If we all knew the answer to that we would either buy or not buy.
We can only make a estimated guess or educational guess. But what I do like to think is that we know the risks of the future and there are two risks. there's either one, the semiconductor ETFs will underperform the indexes, or two, there's going to be volatility and maybe we can't stomach the volatility.
So, we don't know for sure what the returns will be, but we do know what the risks will be. And I want to weigh those risks to then kind of help us decide like should you be buying a semiconductor ETF and adding it to your portfolio. And based on those questions of those two risks, I well, I hope you can make a decision after this video.
So, before I get started, just want to say thank you for being here. This is Money with Jacob. I'm 29 years old, $760,000 in a stock portfolio, 100% debtree. Let's go, baby. So, if uh you're new here, welcome to the channel. If you've been here before, welcome back. Hit that subscribe button. Doesn't make sense to keep coming back if you're not subscribed, right?
So, uh let's jump into it. So, there are the two semiconductor ETFs. There's SMH and there is SOXX. And just looking at the top 10 holdings of both of these, we can see that each one has basically the usual suspects. There's Nvidia, there's Nvidia, there's Micron, there's Micron, there's ASML, there's ASML.
So, I think like you can choose either one of these ETFs and they're they're going to be about the same. I mean, they're a little different, but they're kind of the same. And again, whenever I go and look at these uh two ETFs on the performance, we can see over the past 10 years, they've been averaging about the same compound annual returns here.
30% for SMH, 27% SOXX, stellar. And this is crazy. This is why people are wanting to either get into these or have been into these already. Like 30% compound annual returns. Can't beat that. I mean literally you can't beat that. This is the best of the best of the best at least for the past 10 years.
Now one thing I want to point out is that since inception it shows SMH is compounding 26% and SOXX is compounding 12.23%. But the difference here is is that socks was released right there at the dot bubble basically 2001. I mean after the bubble was bursted but still around that area. Uh it's been out a lot longer.
there's a lot more data we have to work with with socks and SMH was released in 2011. So these are both pretty similar. I want to just now focus on socks whenever we're talking about the risks of getting into semiconductor ETFs only because uh not because I think it's better but just because there's more data to work here with this particular semiconductor ETF.
So whenever I'm looking at socks and I think okay what is the first kind of risk that we have of getting into a semiconductor ETF it's that it could underperform over the long term and right now we have a lot of recency bias. So I'm pulling up a stock chart here of stocks which is the orange line compared to the NASDAQ which is the green line and then the S SNP500 which is the red line.
When I say NASDAQ, this is the NASDAQ 100 index index. So from 2015, a little bit before 2015 to now, stocks is up 1,081%. NASDAQ up 502%, S&P 500 up 237%. So over the past 10 years, yes, it looks like an obvious buy. We should be into stocks. This thing absolutely kills the other indexes. There's no way it could underperform the S&P and the uh NASDAQ.
But this is recency biasism. And I'm going to go on to the next chart here and show you what I mean. Socks was released back in 2001. And whenever we see it all the way back there, oh, let's see here. Whenever we see it all the way back there in 2001, 2002, that's where it was. If you would have bought Socks in 2001 or bought the NASDAQ 100 at the same exact time, the NASDAQ 100 is up 1,389%.
Socks is up 1,292%. So over the past now 25 years, SOK has actually underperformed the NASDAQ over the past 10 years. It's dramatically outperformed. Over the past 20 years, it's underperformed. Now, over the past 20 years, uh, SOX has dramatically outperformed the S&P 500, where the S&P 500's at 462%, socks is up there at,200%.
But what I find really interesting is we didn't see a divergence between stocks and the S&P 500 until 2017. So, if you'd have bought the S&P 500 or socks in 2001, the S&P 500 actually outperformed stocks until 2017. Then once that divergence took off, I mean it it separated pretty fast and uh pretty hard where stocks just went parabolic and the S&P 500 is did slow and steady.
But I'm bringing this up because this doesn't the semiconductor ETF isn't guaranteed to always outperform. It underperformed the S&P 500 for 17 years and from 2001 to now it's still underperforming the NASDAQ. So it's it is possible that this underperforms. And where this becomes a risk is is that if I buy a semiconductor ETF, I'm going to be taking on more risk.
I'm going to be exposing myself to a less diversified uh ETF. And it's not worth it if I'm not going to get outperformance. I mean, the whole idea of taking on more risk is to get more reward. But if I don't get more reward, I'm just take on more risk. That's not a fair trade-off. That's actually a really bad trade-off.
So, that is one risk. It's not guaranteed to outperform or underperform. It's just it is a risk. Now the second risk I want to look at is volatility and some people can stomach watching their stocks go down 50 60% and other people can't. I'm somebody who can stomach some pain but I personally don't think I could stomach a regular 40 50 60% sell off in my holdings.
So, I want to take a look at socks on the stock chart in the 2021 bull market and then the 2022 bare market. So, at the top it peaked. Socks is this orange line. At the top it peaked and from the peak of 2021 all the way down till it bottomed in 2022, it sold off by 45%. It was in a 45% draw down. Whenever we see the NASDAQ, the NASDAQ went into a 35% draw down and the S&P 500 went into a 25% draw down.
So, if you're in the S&P 500, 25% feels a little painful. It is a sell-off. It's pretty substantial selloff, but a 45% sell off. I mean, that's almost your pole position. It's basically been cut in half. And that can be really painful. And this isn't just isolated to the 2022 bare market. So I also pulled in together some data pulling up a chart.
This is volatility in semis and S&P 500 specifically stocks compared to the S&P 500 going back to 2001. So I have the total number of draw downs since 2001 and then also the size of the draw downs and the red boxes here are socks ETF and the orange boxes here are the S&P 500. And so if we count up the number of 20% or more draw downs in socks, we have six 9 11 13.
There have been 13 20% or more draw downs in socks since 2001. Whenever we compare that with the S&P 500, we have 4 5 7. We've had seven 20% or more draw downs in the S&P 500 compared to 13 in stocks. So it's basically twice the amount of draw downs that you get holding a semiconductor ETF than you get holding the S&P 500.
And then if we also just look at some of the sizes of these draw downs since 2001 there have been two 60% draw downs in stocks. There have been six 20% draw downs. Two 40% draw downs. I mean the the one that really screams to me is this two 60% draw downs. That is painful. two times you'd have to sit through a 60% draw down and then say to yourself I have the conviction to hold on one and then the second thing is is you have to say I actually have the time horizon to hold on because this is where I think it's important to be thinking about semiconductor ETFs for the long term because if you can't sit through a 60% hold uh draw down and then wait for the recovery the recovery is going to take some time and I I'm young I'm 29 I have the time to wait I just I personally don't have the stomach to go through a 60% draw down in one ETF, a concentrated ETF.
I could do it in the S&P. I could do it in the NASDAQ because they're much more diversified. But personally, if I'm that concentrated into one ETF, I think I'm going to start questioning myself and my ability and my own intelligence. And I think I'm going to start losing conviction of like maybe this is the end for semiconductors.
Maybe I should sell. I just don't trust myself in something this concentrated. So, are semiconductor ETFs for you? Maybe. Are they for me? Definitely not. Uh, but this is just me measuring the risk and I don't like the risk. This is why I'm not getting super concentrated in the semiconductor ETFs. But if you like them, you like them.
There's nothing wrong with that. You have bigger balls than me and you see a bigger, brighter future. Not even a bigger, brighter future. Like, I think that semiconductors will probably outperform for the next 5 to 10 years. I'm just weighing it to the risk and I don't like the risk. So, before I keep rambling, I'm just going to end this.
I'm going to say thank you for watching. Hit that like video. Hit that like video. See, I can't even talk. Hit that like button if you like this video. Hit that subscribe button. I will be back with more content as soon as possible.
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