저자: 짐크레이머 · 외국인
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결론: 시장 바닥이 가까워지고 있으나, 아직 체크리스트 일부가 충족되지 않아 완전한 바닥 확인은 이르다는 판단. 시장 상황: 다우 장중 +462에서 -313으로 급락, S&P500 -1.1%, 나스닥 -1.3%, VIX 23→26 급등. 넷플릭스 실적 가이던스 실망으로 FANG 약 20% 급락. 바닥 체크리스트 (2주 전 대비 점검): ①극도의 비관(AAII 강세 25→21%, 약세 38→47%로 매우 높은 비관) 충족 ②S&P 오실레이터 +7→-4로 하락, 바닥 신호 -5 필요해 아직 미달 ③애널리스트 항복 충족 쪽(AMD 등 다수 하향, 투매성 다운그레이드) ④시스템 리스크 아님, 장기금리 급등 등 일반적 리스크 ⑤IPO 철회 등 공모시장 악화 조짐, CNBC 포스트-SPAC 지수 급락 ⑥좋은 실적이 시장을 구하지 못함(유나이티드헬스·P&G·모건스탠리·웰스파고는 강세 신호로 언급) ⑦현금 유입 여부 아직 불확실, 채권 수익률 상승에도 국채 수익은 역사적으로 낮음 ⑧연준·정책 측면은 중립~부정적. 체크 결과: 5개 이상 충족, 바닥 근접 평가. 내일 바닥이 나올 수 있다고 언급. 개별 종목: AMD 160→121로 하락, 애널리스트 하향. 포드 목표 10대 구간 매수 기회 제시. 시스코 다운그레이드. 페로톤 생산 중단 보도. 캐시 우드(ARK) 등 대형 헤지펀드 큰 손실 언급. 노르웨지안 크루즈(NCLH) 질의: 오미크론 영향으로 더 낮아질 여지, 위험 감수 가능한 투자자는 매수 고려 가능, 일부 하락 후 매수 쪽 시사. 출연자 전망: 바닥이 가깝다는 낙관 제시하되 리스크 관리 전제.
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in i'll be one of my friends i'm just trying to save you some money my job is not just to entertain but to teach and educate so call me at 1-800-743 cmc or tweet me at jim kramer what do we do after today's absolutely brutal meltdown dow went from up 462 to down 313. s p ultimately losing 1.1 percent sell sell sell and the nasdaq dropping 1.3 the house of fame just in the last hour trading was so horrible due to the vix index that fear index it jumped from 23 to nearly 26 we were gripped by something anything we don't even know something working in ukraine china washington wall street or hollywood even but when you think about netflix's miserable forecast that sent the n in fang down almost 20 percent after the bell but you know what we got to step back for a second because you know how often these sell-offs lead to the opposite happening let's talk about two weeks ago two weeks ago i talked about a checklist i used to identify when the market was bottoming see at the time the market had been going down i didn't see a bottom because i was being dispassionate about things i looked for i said there could be more pain to come we didn't have enough checks the market was still too high to me it was too perilous didn't want to put any money to work from a charitable trust still taking money out now though especially after the total despair of the last hour today i'm actually feeling a little more confident this is what a bottom could look like it's murky down there let me walk you through the same dispassionate checklist from two weeks ago because i know it's difficult to look through the negativity and see something anything constructive but we must do that together and that brings me to item one of my checklists before the market can bottom we need to see a sickening level of negativity looking at the tape should make you want to yes puke and this market certainly felt vomit inducing as we went into the close believe me the run to the exits was visceral it was excruciating even before then the american association of individual investors weekly survey had some incredibly weak numbers bulls had fallen from 25 to 21 that's that's shattering bears had risen from 38 to just under 47.
this is an astounding level of negativity one of the few times we've ever seen it so you know what we're checking that box okay now emphatically even as that scary decline in the stock of netflix was at the end after tonight there'll be more fright tomorrow believe me that carries over second are we oversold now you know i watch that proprietary s p oscillator like a hawk right that's what i use to measure i need something again dispassionate keep thinking that word now i did an oscillator explainer this morning for the investing club in my new morning meeting 10 20 am video which people are telling me is important as what i'm doing in any other point in my life so i need you to go to this 10 20 video only for club members i talked about how the market was barely oversold two weeks ago and so therefore it was too early this time though the oscillator has plummeted now it's formed from plus seven where everybody's too bullish it's an extraordinary positive number you have to do selling all the way to -4 but it is not yet deep enough to prevent another down day it's getting there minus five is the level you need to see we have to hold your nose and buy i'd say we're here okay getting there we have to go to minus five and right now tonight we're minus four third have the analysts thrown in the towel two weeks ago we had almost no towel losses if anything they dug in their heels today though they threw in towels all over the place if you walk by wall street you're probably hit by one casey boy amd this semiconductor stock like almost all the semis has been beaten to a pulp falling from the 160 to 121 today an analyst downgraded it hey i get it says business could slow sure wait a second though now we throw the tail i don't know stock lost another five bucks like i said it would do five percent i said it would do that and then squawk in the street it loses vulnerable vulnerable but at what point is it down 60 points from its high tempting okay then there's ford like amd we saw some four assaults and four for the investment club at much higher levels hey we're not idiots this morning an analyst raises his earnings estimates for ford so far so good right but then downgrades the stock by hold even as it had fallen from 25 to 22 because he thinks it's too early to start saying good things i think you're going to get a good opportunity in the teens yesterday an analyst downgraded cisco saying this business is cool despite the increase in orders that's a measure of the future these are all signs of a bottom towel throws today cnbc.com broke this terrific story about how pelotons halting production of treadmills and bikes demanding waning despite the inexplicable decline in the stock there's still plenty of buys on the street that means we're going to get more cows thrown tomorrow have the analysts from the towel we're going to do this okay some have some haven't four are the big guns getting clobbered holy cow david faber my partner squawk on the street he reported that while kathy wood remains the poster child of poor performance there are now plenty of big-time hedge funds that got caught the wrong way big funds billions of dollars bunch of down double-digit guys that's shocking to me we're just beginning of the year we're no longer just watching woods arc funds her misery has a lot of company are the big guns getting clobbered yes five is there actual systemic risk this one's more of a safety question because systemic risk means you can't trust the bottom like the late 2008 period what we have are normal risks rising long-term interest rates that have come up rapidly in the last couple of weeks the backdrop has certainly gotten worse without out threatening the entire economy which is what we need to see before the pain can stop so i'm going to tell you events the trigger no we're good on that one all right we're good so we're uh three you know we're now three out of five okay six are the public markets closed after the new deal we've seen a couple of ipos get pulled that's very good news i think a more important way to measure this is to look at the cmbc posts back index the posts back index oh my god it's doing so badly i mean look at this i mean and also i like to look at the recent ipos they're bad too this understand more than 20 percent year to date and down an unbelievable 50 57 over the last 12 months these outfits that came public by merging with special purpose acquisition companies have seen their stocks get slaughtered they're still being slacked despite the uptick in earnings i think these awful percentages will shut the door to all but the most brain dead of investors because it looked like you're tossing your money into a bonfire if we get fewer ipos and fewer spec deals that means there'll be less new supply coming in and at the end of the day all markets are about supply and demand including the stock market so you know what when i look at something like this and how the deals seem to be walking away i am tempted to check the box which says that we are running out of the public markets being open to junk that you'd rather put money in a bonfire seven can good earnings save us when i did this checklist two weeks ago the answer was no good ones did nothing now we're starting to see the likes of united health procter and gamble morgan stanley wells fargo have real breakdowns both breakouts on good numbers they will be our new leaders when the selling ends but then the forecasts for netflix and coding's maker ppg were disappointing so here we go again too early okay one or two one or two but not in that last hour how about eight is sideline money ready to come in can't tell this one i'm seeing money still streaming out despite the gigantic increase in bond yields at least on a percentage basis you still aren't getting much of a return from treasuries while rates are a lot higher than where they've been they're still very low on a historical basis so i think money will come back flow into the stock market if we stabilize the last couple days but the last hour today is going to frighten people no box check whatsoever as a matter of fact this one went the wrong way okay now nine could anything change the principal negative which is the case is the fed getting ready to put the brace in the economy attempt that inflation tough call we've had some negative sentiment numbers a weaker jobless claims figure this very morning a not-so-housing sales number against that though many of the commodities especially oil moved up substantially the one big positive what happens if jay powell by just talking about positive rate hikes has managed to push long-term rates high enough to slow a bunch of businesses right just make them go slower stranger things have happened could anything change the principal negative we're going to give that one a yes finally is the government outside of the fed at a hindrance or help from wall street's perspective there are a few things better than a gridlock congress that can't accomplish anything which is exactly what we're getting you got a box check there here's the bottom line was today significant considering that we've now got many boxes checked well it means that something that we didn't have two weeks ago we now have but that vicious late days decline that inspired a lot of terror so therefore the market while being close to the decline still has some work to do michael in florida michael hey jim big boy out of you from western florida thanks for taking my call thank you caller my question is in regards to norwegian cruise line in your past interviews with the president of norwegian cruise line frank del rio he spoke with you about his positive outlook for norwegian cruise line by the end of 2022 with their record bookings but now with the fed raising rates the inflation rate at an all-time high and just recently some cruises are now being cancelled due to covet and omicron my question is this based on today's close at 2103 would you consider norwegian cruise line i buy right here or would you recommend sitting on the sidelines to see if they're retailing i think for people who can tolerate a level of risk absolutely michael it's just that when they froze you know when you read that that omicron has pretty much overwhelmed the industry again i think you can get norwegian cruise a little bit lower i really do all right now we are starting to get evidence of the bottom i think we're very close to it we just have a few more boxes to check and we will be there and it might happen tomorrow i'll be talking about of course nine and then in my 10 20 morning meeting for subscribers only of the investing club on mad tonight the supply chain crisis continues to wreak havoc across a host of industries and as the kinks get worked out could now be the time to make money off of it i'm going to turn to a week that's doing it getting a real read on the space the ceo of pro lodges then ernie season is off to the races i'm taking a closer look at the first report the financials giving you my take and after selling off today on a good quarter could today's post earnings reaction from first horizon prove that the stock just came in too hot like a lot of others did i've got the exclusive with the ceo
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