저자: AnkushJain · 외국인
요약 보기
워런 버핏의 투자 조언을 소개하는 영상으로, 자신이 이해하는 소수의 기업에만 집중하면 충분하다는 결론이다. 핵심 주장: 수천 개 기업을 다 알 필요 없이 몇 개만 정확히 판단하면 된다. 능력 범위 밖의 기업은 평가하지 않아도 된다. 근거 사례: 빌 게이츠와의 대화에서 컴퓨터 투자 권유를 거절하고 껌 회사 등 이해 가능한 사업에 집중한 일화를 소개했다. 타자 비유: 테드 윌리엄스의 '스트라이크존' 개념을 빌려, 투자는 볼을 쳐야 할 의무가 없으므로 좋은 가격의 확실한 기회만 기다리라고 설명했다. 인생 카드 비유: 평생 20번의 투자 결정 카드만 주어진다고 생각하면 신중해지고, 4~5번의 옳은 결정만으로도 부자가 될 수 있다고 했다. 기업 사례: 아마존은 베이조스의 성공을 예측하기 어려웠다고 인정하며 거리를 둔다. 반면 뱅크오브아메리카와 코카콜라는 이해 가능한 기업으로 투자 의견을 가졌다. 코카콜라 계산: 하루 18억 잔 판매에서 1페니씩 더 받으면 연간 약 65억 7천만 달러 추가 이익이 발생해 가치가 높다고 설명했다. 결론: 몇몇 사업의 미래를 이해하고 판단할 수 있다면 매우 부유해질 수 있다.
다듬은 글
most important thing is to decide what is to be able to define which ones you can come to an intelligent decision on and which ones are beyond your capacity to evaluate you don't have to be right about thousands and thousands of thousands of companies you only have to be right about a company couple I met bill gates on July fifth nineteen ninety one we arrived seattle and bill said you've got to have a computer and i said why and he said well he said you can do your income tax on it I said I don't have any income Bircher doesn't pay a dividend yeah he said well you can keep track of your portfolio I said I only have one stock I said I did I mean he says it's going to change everything and I said well will it change whether people chew gum and he said well probably not and I said what will change what kind of gum they'd show and I said well then I'll stick to chewing gum and you stick to computers so bad I don't have to understand all kinds of but there's all kinds of business I don't understand but there's thousands of opportunities there I did understand the bank of america you know and and uh and i'll be able to i'm able to do that i'm able to understand some given percentage but Ted Williams wrote a book called the science of hitting and in the science of hitting he's got a diagram shows him at the plate and he's got the strike zone divided in the 77 squares each the size of a baseball and he says if I only swing at pitches in my sweet zone which he shows her and he has what his batting average would be which is 400 if he had to swing at low outside pitches but still in the in the strike zone is average would be 230 he said the most important thing in hitting is waiting for the right pitch now he was at a disadvantage because if the count was 0 and 2 or 1 and 2 or so on even if that ball was down where he was only about 2 30 he had to swing on it in investing there's no called strikes people can throw Microsoft that man you know your name it any any stock General Motors and I don't have to swing and nobody's going to call me out on call strikes I only get a I called if i swing at a pitch and mess so I can wait there and look at thousands of companies day after day and only when I see something I understand and when I like the price of which is selling then if i swing if I if I had it fine if I miss its a strike but it's an enormously advantageous game and it's a terrible mistake that think you have to have an opinion on everything you only have to have an opinion on a few things in fact I've told students if when they got out of school they got a punch card with 20 punches on it and that's all the investment decisions they got to make in their entire life they would get very rich because they would think very hard about each one and you don't need 20 right decisions to get very rich you know four or five will probably do it over time so I don't worry too much about the things I don't understand it if you understand some of these businesses that are coming along and can spot things on if you can spot on amazon for example i mean it's a tremendous accomplishment what Jeff Bezos has done and I tip my hat to me is a wonderful businessman he's a good guy too but could I have anticipated that he would be the success and 10 others wouldn't be I'm not good enough to do that but I'd unfortunately I don't have to you know I don't have to form an opinion on on amazon and I do I did form an opinion on the bank of america and i form an opinion on coca-cola I mean coca-cola has been around since 1886 there's one point eight billion 1.8 billion eight ounce servings of coca-cola products sold every day now if you take one penny and get one penny extra that's 18 million dollars a day and 18 million times 365 is seven billion free less 730 billion or six billion 570 million dollars so annually six billion 570 million dollars from one penny do you think coca-cola is worth a penny more than you know Joe's Cola I think so so I you know and I've got about a hundred and twenty-seven years of history that would indicate it so those are the kind of asians i like to make and you may have an entirely different field of expertise then i would have and probably much more up to date in terms of the kind of businesses that we're seeing above and you can get very rich if you just understand a few of them and understand their future but
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