저자: TomLee,Mona · 외국인
요약 보기
2020년 4월 16일 CNBC 방송. 시장은 나쁜 경제지표를 이미 상당 부분 반영했으며 바닥을 다지는 중이라는 Tom Lee의 낙관론과, 반등 폭이 커 리스크 대비 보상이 덜 매력적이라는 Mona의 신중론이 맞선다. Tom Lee는 S&P500이 2,800(50% 되돌림)을 회복했고 1929년 이후 30% 이상 하락이 10번 있었으나 중간 회복 후에는 신저점이 나오지 않았다며 강세장 재진입을 주장한다. 2,100 회복이 중요하고 2,200 재방문은 없을 것이라 본다. Mona는 S&P500이 고점 대비 18% 하락, 연초 대비 14% 하락 수준이며 저점 대비 약 24% 반등해 3월 손실의 약 50%를 되돌렸다고 설명한다. 반등이 너무 빨랐을 수 있다고 본다. Mona는 2,500과 2,400이 핵심 지지 레벨이며 약 10~15% 추가 하락 가능성을 열어둔다. 6월 무렵까지 바닥 다지기 과정이 있을 수 있으나 저점 재테스트는 없을 가능성이 있다고 본다. 경제 측면에서 미국 실업률이 약 18%에 근접했고 소비자는 신중하며, 미국 경제는 소비 주도이므로 재개방 경로가 핵심 변수다. 추천 전략은 바벨 접근. 방어 자산으로 국채, 금, 고품질 IG 채권을 유지하고, 포스트 코로나 수혜로 음식 배달, 온라인 소매, 5G, 클라우드, 사이버보안, 원격근무 관련 기술주와 원격진료·제약·진단장비 등 헬스케어를 제시한다. 기술과 헬스케어는 이미 S&P 내 상대 강세. 대상 자산 예측: S&P500은 Tom Lee 상승(강세장 재진입, 2,100 회복), Mona 하락 가능성(2,400~2,500 테스트, 10~15% 하락 여지)으로 엇갈림. 나스닥은 기술주 선호 맥락에서 긍정적 언급. 금·국채는 방어 자산으로 언급되나 방향 예측은 없음.
다듬은 글
yeah the markets barely moving here SP is down half a percent Nasdaq's up a quarter of a percent clearly stocks have discounted this very bad news on the economy but what's in the market as far as whether or not these jobs come back and how quickly the economy recovers I mean that's that's what the stock market is trying to discount because you know I think there are three waves to this crisis like you know we've had the kovat case crisis and now we have that first wave of social distance company victims and now we're gonna see all the asset owners react so is there's a lot of information to discount I think it's good news that we are getting just awful data and the stock market unlike early March it's not in a freefall so I think the market is starting to look through this and think you know 2028 earnings are kind of a write-off and even if it's a slow recovery stocks generally recover almost 12 months before GDP recovers so week week I think what we're seeing is a pretty typical sort of bottoming of the market and kind of a revival Tom I know you've had some particularly good and timely calls lately when it comes to the recent action just bring us up to speed on where you are what your performance has been and what you're calling for now yeah I mean I I don't think we you know we can give ourselves you know great marks for this because it's really been so hard to adjust to what's happening and you know cuz this pandemic is moving so quickly but I think what's been really really notable is we recovered 2,800 on the S&P which is the 50% retracement and since 1929 there have been 10 e 10 declines of over 30% whenever you recover at sort of halfway mark 8% losses you don't make a new low so I do think the stock market has has really bottomed you know I'm saying this realizing there's a lot of uncertainty out there and I think logic says look there's so much bad news ahead how can the stock market be looking ahead and I think part of it is that the policymakers did a really good job of really acting quickly and we know the central banks have intervened and really supportive markets in a way that's that's providing liquidity and tamping volatility so I think that's why you know I know it sounds strange but we are really in a bull market and I think recovering that 2100 is a big deal because I don't think we revisit 2,200 it sounds strange and it's out of consensus Mona what do you think about that call just if you're keeping track SNP is down 18 percent from the highs which is technically out of that bear market phase and a lot better than where we looked in March absolutely look we're down 14% year-to-date as Tom alluded to we rebounded about 24% now off the lows retraced nearly 50% of the losses in March that being said we do think some of this may have come too far too fast you know we really were driven by one the virus and the health issues perhaps stabilizing here which is good news the stimulus from both the Fed and the fiscal of broadly being quite strong quite fast I think that's another piece of good news but at this point you know to us the risk reward doesn't seem nearly as compelling we're facing some key unknowns ahead of us what does the reopening of the economy look like especially now with an unemployment rate close to 18 percent after this morning's jobless claims numbers and a consumer that's really quite cautious still you know keep in mind this this US economy is driven by consumption and the US consumer now we do see a bottoming process ahead of us perhaps sometime between now and the June timeframe where we agree with tom is that we may not retest the lows given the nature of the stimulus that's been nearly 40 percent of GDP or here in the US but we do think key levels to watch here or that twenty five hundred and twenty four hundred in the S P it's about 10 to 15 percent perhaps downside but we do continue to believe that this type of retest does provide opportunities you know how do you position in sectors that we see really thriving in a post kovat nineteen world so that's how we're looking at it what are the recommendations there yeah yes your maybe top three picks sure so you know again we always talk about that barbel approach on one hand that barbell we continue like defensive asset classes no Treasuries gold high quality IG but that really postcode good positioning includes things like the rise of food delivery services and online retail technology trends all named 5g cloud computing cyber security especially for companies looking at a more work from home workforce and then really fundamental shifts in the healthcare space so telemedicine pharmaceuticals trends towards testing equipment and devices in the non demand fashion we're really starting to see interesting positioning and we're seeing some of that reflected already in the SP with tech and healthcare two of the out performers thus far so we continue to feel like while we will get a bottoming process there are ways to position yourself to to outperform and really benefit from this you
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