저자: Stanley · 외국인
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버크셔 해서웨이가 2022년 HP Inc에 40억 달러 이상을 투자해 11.4% 지분을 확보한 것을 계기로, HP의 사업 구조와 가치를 분석한 영상이다. 버크셔의 투자 배경: 2021년 내내 막대한 현금을 보유했으나 높은 밸류에이션 때문에 자사주 매입에 집중했고, 2022년 들어 Occidental Petroleum 지분 약 15% 취득, Allegheny 인수(120억 달러), HP 투자(42억 달러)로 쇼핑을 시작했다. HP는 버크셔의 두 번째로 큰 기술주 포지션이다. HP 사업 구조: 2015년 기업용 사업을 HPE로 분사한 뒤 PC·프린터·소모품에 집중한다. PC는 고급 노트북·게이밍 데스크톱 등으로 회복했고, 프린터는 잉크 구독 서비스와 Samsung 프린터 사업 인수로 규모를 키웠다. 실적과 성장성: 2020년 매출은 4% 감소한 566억 달러, 2021년은 12% 증가한 635억 달러로 사상 최고치였다. 다만 성장률은 한 자릿수~낮은 두 자릿수에 그쳐 기술주 대비 낮다. 영업이익률은 PC 7.8%, 프린팅 18.2%다. 주주환원: 최근 2년간 잉여현금흐름의 100% 이상을 자사주 매입과 배당으로 환원했다. 2022년 FCF 전망은 최소 45억 달러이며 그중 40억 달러 이상을 자사주 매입에 쓸 계획이고, 배당수익률은 약 2%다. 인수 측면으로는 HyperX(약 4.25억 달러)와 Plantronics(33억 달러) 인수를 진행했다. 밸류에이션과 리스크: PER은 약 6배로 낮다. 팬데믹 중 전자기기 수요 급증 이후 재택근무 축소에 따른 둔화, 경기침체·고인플레이션 위험이 낮은 마진을 압박할 수 있다는 점이 우려 요인이다. 결론적으로 HP는 현금을 많이 창출하고 주주에게 환원하는 안정적 기업이며, 버크셔 같은 장기 가치투자자에게 적합하다는 평가다. 버크셔의 완전 인수 가능성에 대해서도 언급했으나 확정적 전망은 없다. 대상 자산 예측 발언: HP(HPQ) 등 대상 목록 자산에 대한 1~3개월 가격 방향 예측은 없다.
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hi guys stanley here i'm the co-founder of valueinvestation.com an investment portal where we give you investment news and in-depth analysis on listed company every single week so if you're new to the channel remember hit that subscribe button so you'll not miss out on any of our videos for most of 2021 berkshire hardaway sat on a huge pile of cash there were about 144 billion dollars on its balance sheet but due to the high valuation back then the main stock that warren buffett found interesting is berkshire itself hence he turned to a lot of share buyback but now in 2022 berkshire is on a shopping spree first it acquired about a 15 stick in occidental petroleum in march and then it purchased an insurance company allegheny corporation for 12 billion dollars and in april berkshire disclosed an interesting 4.2 billion investment into hp inc the purchase gave berkshire a 11.4 in hp and make it its largest shareholder it also make hp berkshire's second largest tech position behind the mighty apple which berkshire state is worth over 120 billion dollars but what makes hp so appealing to berkshire now with hp share down more than 10 percent from berkshire investment is it an even better bargain right now so in this video we'll try to answer that question but first i'd like to thank our sponsor for our video seeking alpha seeking alpha is the largest investment community in the world seeking alpha provides investors with a wealth of information through their data news earning transcript and crowd source analysis both personal and professional investors find great investing ideas through seeking alpha and i personally found it extremely useful to keep up to date with company i am interested in so you can now also sign up for seeking alpha today with a 40 discount from their premium membership just click on the link on our show notes to find out more now back to the video so what is hp inc anyway hp has spun off its enterprise businesses as hewlett packard enterprise in 2015.
after that separation the new hp inc only sold pcs printer and printing supply to consumer and commercial market hp initially struggled with sluggish demand for its pc as consumer pivoted towards smartphone tablets and other smart devices but hp managed to revive his stagnant pc business with fresh design for high-end notebooks convertible device all in one computer and also their gaming desktop the printing business also initially struggled with outdated model and competition from just generic ink and toner suppliers and also with a rise of paperless workspace the need for printer is now less however hp also managed to refocus its printing business by launching a cost-effective subscription service for his ink cartridges then it increases his scale by acquiring samsung printing business and the home equipment dealer apogee hp even started developing a new line of industrial 3d printers however in 2020 it suffered a slowdown at the initial stage of the lockdown as its net revenue declined by 4 percent to 56.6 billion but the situation improved significantly in 2021 pushing its revenue up 12 to its highest ever at 63.5 billion dollars yet even with that recovery hp isn't exactly a high growth stock when we compare it with other tech stock its growth rate is extremely low ranging from just a single digit to maybe a low two digit increase apart from that its operating margin are not great either the company records a 7.8 percent operating margin for its pc business and a 18.2 operating margin for its printing segment however what lacks in growth is certainly make up for stability hp is a very predictable company that generates a lot of cash and it has returned a lot of its free cash flow to investor through buybacks and also dividend over the past two years hp has returned more than a hundred percent of its free cash flow to investors even as this commercial business faced pandemic related disruption for example in 2020 hp generated a free cash flow of 3.9 billion but it returned 4.1 billion to shareholder in the form of share buybacks and also dividend that's the similar case in 2021 as well where hp generated a free cash flow of 4.2 billion dollars but returned 7.2 billion to shareholder in share buybacks and dividends and going forward hp expect is free cash flow to rise to at least 4.5 billion dollars for 2022 and it is planning to spend more than 4 billion of that on share buybacks it is also still giving a dividend yield of around 2 having said that hp has not given up on growth last year it spent about 425 million to acquire hyperx the gaming peripheral division of kingston technology hyperx is now a leading manufacturer of gaming headphones as well keyboards mice and also microphone and as an effort to capitalize on the remote work culture hp has agreed to buy plantronics which make phone headset audio and video equipment for 3.3 billion in march but what i think is most interesting part of hp for berkshire is its valuation the hp stocks now trade as just 6 times earning but there of course some reason 2 is low valuation after the huge buying of electronics during the pandemic hp might be facing a slowdown as remote works start to fade plus the risk of recession and high inflation might also affect its already low margin business nonetheless hp inc is still a relatively stable company that is generating tons of cash more importantly is returning all this excess cash flow back to investor the perfect kind of stock for berkshire hardaway some might even feel that it will work great as a fully owned subsidiary of berkshire hardaway could that be the reason why berkshire is investing in it comment below what do you think are the chances that berkshire might acquire hb ink fully outright well that's the end of today's video if you've gotten value from the video please give us a like and share it with a friend who you might think will benefit from it as well and if you like to see more of our content please support our channel by supporting our sponsor seeking alpha you can sign up for a premium membership now with a 40 discount by using our affiliate link below anyway my name is stanley until we meet again investing you
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