저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
요약 보기
금 가격은 하락 추세 속 일시 반등에 그쳤으며, 저점을 확인했다고 보기 어렵고 고점은 아직 오지 않았다는 결론. 금 가격 전망: 반등 폭이 크지 않았고 금값이 크게 떨어진 뒤의 움직임이라 지속성은 확신할 수 없음. 그러나 조정이 끝나면 금값은 훨씬 더 높아질 것이라고 주장. 연준과 금리: 경제는 부채로 지탱되는 거품이며, 정부 지출과 무역적자 확대가 연준 제로금리·양적완화에 의존. 따라서 금리는 장기간 낮게 유지될 수밖에 없고, 연준은 인플레이션을 억제할 수단이 있어도 거품 붕괴를 우려해 실제로 쓰지 못할 것이라고 주장. 인플레이션: 시장은 연준이 금리 인상으로 인플레를 잡을 수 있다고 믿어 금에 하방 압력이 가해지고 있으나, 연준은 싸우지 않고 항복할 것이며 인플레이션이 통제 불능이 될 것이라고 전망. 그때 달러 바닥이 빠지고 금은 급등할 것이라고 봄. 미국 재정: 연방정부 지출은 연 8조달러 이상, 세입은 3.5조달러 미만이며 차액은 연준이 메우고 있다고 지적. 신규 1.9조달러 부양책 통과도 이 구조의 연장으로 봄. 암호화폐: 회의론자들의 비트코인 추종은 과열 말기의 전형적 현상으로 해석. 일부 전향자는 암호화폐 관련 사업에 이해관계가 있어 홍보 동기가 있다고 주장. 과열이 얼마나 더 갈지는 예측하기 어렵다고 함.
다듬은 글
hours after hitting a nine-month low gold futures rose more than one percent to above seventeen hundred dollars an ounce on tuesday as both the u.s dollar and treasury yields retreated this as concerns remain over inflation and what the federal reserve will do as the latest 1.9 trillion dollar stimulus package nears president biden's approval so joining me now to discuss is peter schiff chief economist and global strategist at euro pacific capital now peter gold has been in a downward trend so is this rebound we saw earlier likely to stick well you know i have no idea it wasn't that you know impressive a move considering how much gold has dropped preceding this uh this move on a tuesday a lot of things that were beaten up bounced back today look at the move we saw in the tech stocks that had been really getting hammered as rates are rising so i don't know if we've seen the lows in gold uh but i know for sure we haven't seen the highs so when this correction is over the price of gold is going much much higher yeah and there is a lot of talk that it still has a long way to go and that this is just the beginning now we've also heard a lot of talk about inflation and you yourself have said that the federal reserve is between a rock and a hard place right now because it couldn't fight inflation even if it wanted to so how long do you see jerome powell continuing to promise to keep interest rates low well rates are going to have to stay low indefinitely because the entire economy is a bubble i mean it's not a legitimate recovery that we're enjoying it's simply the spending of uh borrowed money and more literally printed money we're running massive deficits uh the federal government is spending over eight trillion dollars a year but collecting less than three and a half trillion in in taxes the difference is pretty much being supplied by the fed and americans are spending all this money that's why our trade deficits are skyrocketing right now so the whole thing that's keeping this house of cards from imploding is zero percent interest rates in qe so the fed is not going to pull the rug out from under this bubble but it has to pretend that if it ever sees an inflation problem that it's got the tools to fight it even though it's bluffing because even if it had the tools it would never use them because the tools would destroy the house of cards that they've erected yeah that's a really good point and it is interesting that you refer to it as a house of cards as we have congress passing another 1.9 trillion dollars in stimulus now the federal reserve seems to be doing everything it can to keep the markets calm right now but if inflation fears continue to increase do you see gold and precious metal prices catching up to those expectations well absolutely see right now i think the markets sense that inflation is going to be moving higher uh and maybe even higher than what the fed is uh acknowledging but i think the markets still believe the fed that the fed will be able to contain the inflation problem before it really runs out of control so it's the expectation that the fed's going to fight inflation by raising rates that's what's pressuring gold but the markets are wrong i mean the fed is not even going to attempt to fight inflation it's going to surrender inflation is going to win without a fight and when the markets realize that the fed is all barking no bite and that inflation is going to be an even bigger problem that is going to be uncontrollable then the bottom is going to fall out of the dollar and gold's going through the roof yeah well that definitely creates a lot of hope for those investors in gold now i can't have you on without talking a little bit about cryptocurrencies i know you've been a big critic but it appears that other skeptics have been changing their tune in recent weeks why do you think that is and of course do you see it lasting well certainly there are some of the skeptics who are now capitulating uh which is something that you might expect in at the end of a mania uh the early doubters naysayers you know can't help it and they join the party uh usually pretty late uh you know whether or not this party is gonna rage for a lot while longer it's hard to say i also question some of the uh legitimacy of some of these uh bitcoin converts because i think some of the people who are now bullish also have vested interest they've kind of got involved in some crypto related enterprise and so it's in their financial interest to now be uh promoting bitcoin so whether or not uh their newfound love for bitcoin is genuine or not it's hard to say when there's a lot of money at stake and people are trying to get their piece of the pie before it's gone great insight to consider here peter schiff thank you so much for your time sure thanks
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