Expect a 'hawkish cut' from the Fed this week, says Wharton's Jeremy Siegel

요약 보기

시겔은 이번 주 연준이 25bp 인하하되 매파적(hawkish) 인하가 될 것으로 전망하며, 미란(Miran)을 포함해 여러 위원이 반대표를 낼 수 있다고 봄. 케빈 해셋이 차기 연준의장 유력 후보로 거론되며 발표가 임박했다고 언급. 연준 기준금리는 지난 75년간 10년물보다 약 100bp 낮았다는 점을 근거로, 금리 인하가 10년물 장기금리를 크게 낮추지는 않을 것이라고 봄. 다만 단기 차입금리와 연동된 15조 달러 이상의 대출에 영향을 줘 경제를 자극할 것이라 봄. 장기금리 상승 요인으로 일본 금리 상승과 관세 충격 우려의 완화를 꼽음. 국가부채 38조 달러 우려에도 시장이 크게 걱정할 필요는 없다고 봄.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. want to uh get uh right into the broader markets ahead of this week's Fed meeting. Joining us right now is Jeremy Seagull, arden School of Business. Also, of course, chief economist at Wisdom Tree. Good morning to you. Uh what do you think we are going to hear from the Fed this week? And and what do you think we should hear from them?

02. Uh I think we're going to hear a uh what I call a hawkish cut. I think they are cutting 25 basis points. I think there's going to be dissents um on both sides. I I think Mirin is going to go again for 50. Uh but I think there could be two maybe even three that want to to keep it unchanged. So uh I think this would be by if that would be the case the most desense under the entire pal nearly eight years uh that he has uh been chairman.

03. Of course, uh, as I as we we note in a few minutes, you're going to have Kevin Hasset. I I think is Kevin I think in the 70s now as the probability of the next Fed chair, which Trump says uh he will announce at the beginning of the new year. So I I feel I'm sort of a straw man here for uh maybe what uh Kevin is going to say, but he won't spill the beans.

04. He won't tell you that he's the man or or not. Um but um uh he's he certainly uh uh has gained in prominence and uh what he says is going to start moving the market uh much more than in the past. Do you believe ultimately that there's already a shadow Fed even in without maybe in name only or without even having a name that we just know that come this May interest rates are going lower?

05. Yeah. I mean, um, well, you have Mirren already there. Um, and actually, uh, I've been relatively impressed with him. He's put out some good papers. I don't agree with everything on him. I actually wish he would stay maybe after January. Maybe he will instead of going going back. Uh, I think he's uh I think the Fed needs a lot of different voices and he's certainly uh one of them.

06. So already he is in the Fed and yeah I mean announcement of a new Fed official if it is in January I think would be perhaps you know one of the earliest before uh the actual change takes place. So you know how important will Jay Powell's statements be after that? Um it's going to be a new Fed uh if it is hassid it's really going to be a new Fed uh from what we've had in the past.

07. What do you think the bond market is going to do if if interest rates come down? I mean, this is the one interesting component. I know we spent a lot of time talking about equities, but I I've been I' I've been curious about how the bond market has reacted. You know what? I don't think the bond market is going to move that much down.

08. I mean, my feeling is, and I've stated this for many months, Fed funds rate, if you go back through the last 75 years, has been about a 100 basis points below the 10-year. So the 10ear is what 415 now approximately. So that would be the low 3s. It would not necessarily lower that long rate. U now what does that mean?

09. That means 30-year mortgages are not going to go down very much. But to say that that's not going to have any effect on the economy is wrong because there's over 15 trillion dollars worth of loans that are tied to the Fed funds rate. all the short-term borrowing, auto loans, um, uh, uh, inventory loans, the prime rate, credit card rates, all those short-term rates are one to one linked to what the Fed is going to do.

10. So even though it might not affect the long rate, which does affect is important for mortgages to be sure, it definitely will uh, stimulate the economy uh, for the short end. So Jeremy, the the the bond market is dealing with a lot. Um maybe we're, you know, we're cutting into a 3% inflation rate and maybe I guess critics of uh of Kevin Hasset would say that he's not independent enough or more likely to uh to be more dovish than the market really calls for.

11. But do you expect those things to come home to roost or because it it hasn't really happened yet. Do you think the vigilantes will be uh will this get raise the eyeire of of people that watch it close? I mean we're at 38 trillion in in debt. There's a lot of reasons. Yes, for sure. But you know, when the hints came that Kevin was the front runner, we did not see the long-term bond rate go up.

12. I think the long-term bond rate is going up now because of what is going on. two factors I think one is going on in Japan certainly I mean they're I think at a 20 or 30 year new high on on their rate and that's important and secondly the fact that the economy is holding out well you know the fear that this quarter might be the quarter where those tariffs were going to bite the economy at least from the you know early news that we're getting we're not getting uh any really significant dampening of of sales so that has been positive so I don't think it's Kevin I I worked with Kevin um uh you know Kevin called me in 2000 said Jeremy you want to work on the John McCain campaign he was the lead economic adviser and I was second uh he's a wonderful person a wonderful economist u I don't think I don't think the market should have anything to worry about am.