저자: JeffreyGundlach · 외국인
요약 보기
파월 연준의 기자회견은 관세 영향과 인플레이션, 실업률 상승 사이에서 리스크가 양쪽으로 커졌다며 정책금리를 현 수준에 두고 지표를 기다리겠다는 입장을 보였다. 실업률은 36개월·12개월 이동평균 위에 있어 경기침체 신호로 해석되며, 2s10s 장단기 금리차는 역전 해소 후 12개월 평균이 플러스로 전환해 과거에는 경기침체 전 드문 신호다. 연준이 어느 쪽으로 먼저 기울지는 불확실하다는 것이 핵심이다.
다듬은 글
So I can't really blame them. I mean there's we are in sort of uncharted waters with we don't know what the tariffs are going to do with inflation. There is pressure a little bit on the rising unemployment rate which I'll talk about in a little bit. But uh I really felt he did everything but invoke the hypocratic oath regarding the Fed funds rate.
Above all do no harm. Right. Because he's he says we're in a good place over and over again. Over and over. He he said that multiple times in exactly those words or uh you know versions of Yeah. But he doesn't he refuses to answer and I can't blame him for this either questions of what would the unemployment have to go to, which one's going to be a problem first and so forth.
So he says wait and see. We're in a good place. We can wait and see. But I think that it's a little bit of uncertainty. I'm surprised the market didn't act worse on on the stock market because it sounds to me like we're back in Mr. from Mcooland where we're in the car driving around and he admits that there's risks higher inflation, higher unemployment rate.
But he says, "I'm not going to I I can't explain to you what we need to see to get concerned about one side of the mandate or the other. So, we're just going to wait and see which tree we bump into." So, I feel like we're going to bump into either an a tariff inflation tree, we're going to bump into a rising unemployment tree, and that will affect what happens to the Fed funds rate down the line.
But the unemployment rate is rising. I mean, it's above its 36-month moving average. Uh, and that goes along with recession. It's also uh the unemployment rate is is also uh above its 12-month moving average on and 12-month moving average is is is important too. But also the twos 10 the yield curve which was inverted for so long and now it's de-inverted which usually puts us on watch for economic problems.
But the 12-month moving average of the 2's 10 is now positive, which has never happened without a recession after a period of inversion going back to 1980. So, we're watching that very, very carefully to see what happens in unemployment picture. Which way will the Fed lean first? Uh, you tried your best and JPAL just doesn't know.
He said, I I don't think we know. And then he he later said it's a complicated and challenging judgment that will have to be made if unemployment rises and inflation at minimum stays where it is. What do they do? They don't know. The the answer is which way to to to the question, Scott, which way they lean first.
The answer is yes. That's the correct answer. They they don't know. Look, Scott, I can take this whole 45minute press conference, wrap it up in a single question, which I said, which way do you lean first? And here's Powell's answer. I don't think we can say uh, you know, which way this will shake out.
I think there's great deal of uncertainty about, for example, where tariff policies are going to to settle out and also when they do settle out, what will be the implications for the economy, for growth, and for employment. I think it's too early to know that. So, I mean, ultimately, we think our policy rate is in a is in a good place to uh to stay as we await further clarity on on tariffs.
That literally, Scott, is the entire press conference. The rest, as they say, is just commentary. Um, and the the only salient thing here from the statement was that the Fed saying the risks have risen on both sides of the mandate. there's an equal amount of risk for higher unemployment and for higher inflation and that's what the Fed has to deal with and is just waiting to shake it out and it's not according to the last question which is worth summarizing here Scott not going to make a call on the sentiment data or the soft data it's going to wait till it shows up in the hard data and and I'll just add this idea of yes the Fed is going to be behind the curve but as Jason Ferman said in a New York Times piece that alleviates the risk of getting in front of the wrong curve.
Interesting. That's right. That's that hypocratic oath thing again. Yeah, Steve, thank you. Uh, good points. Of course, I'm going to ask Jeffrey about it now. Steve Leeman, uh, who asked really the question of the moment today. I thought it was in that meeting. I thought it was great that he got the first question because Steve's exactly right that that question was asked by him directly.
The answer was obviously, as Steve said, just that's all you need to know on the entire press conference. And there had to be half a dozen others that tried that same question and got basically the variation of the same answer. And and basically they say, "We don't know. There's too much too much uncertainty." That word was used a lot.
We we can't even tell you what we're looking for, but we'll know it when we see it. and know it when we see it means it has to be eyeopening enough that you've bumped into a
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