원문 보기
people don't understand their natural advantages and they don't use it that's bad number one but worst number two if you don't think you're a good ice skater or if you're convinced you're not a good cellist you're not going out and try it people are buying stocks anyway they're not discouraged they just think it's a gamble yeah we began with Peter Lynch Time Magazine has called him America's number one money manager during the 13 years he head of the Fidelity Magellan fund it was a top-ranked General Equity mutual fund his new book beating the street offers advice on picking stocks and maximizing profits and he's here to talk to us about a lot of things Peter welcome to the broadcast you wrote a book called one up on Wall Street and I think that's one of the best-selling books ever about Wall Street if I'm not correct you can correct me and so so why then did you write another book okay okay I think the reason I wrote it it was the first I tried to explain to people they're great advantages they're edges they have and that they should get involved in stocks and they should do it on the right basis on the first book right yeah and obviously I didn't make a great impression because the percent of people's assets involved in the stocks has gone down in 1960 he played 40 of their financial assets including their house in stocks and mutual funds in 80 that was down to 25 it's now down to 17 and why do you think that is well I think people in the decade of the 80s was the best decade this Century for stocks I think people managed to lose money in the 80s doing it themselves because their methods were so flawed so I I really feel as though I wanted people to understand I don't want anybody to buy a stock I'm saying if you're going to buy a stock you should do certain things right if you're not willing to do these things you should leave your money in the bank your philosophy is simple and I'm remembering this from the previous book I think we're now talking about the previous book correct your philosophy was if you find something that you identify fight with I remember there was a story of your wife and her hose your wife oh you got it yeah your legs are painted your wife said these are the greatest things I've ever seen right and when your wife said that you knew that this was a product that was better right you used to stay at La Quinta motel right and the service was better whatever was better price is good and the price was good too and you said this is a place that I can determine Peter Lynch can tell that this is a good product right if these people make a good product then their earnings are going to go up there for the Stock's going to go up right and I that's the kind of decision-making process you ought to go through right do I have it you've got it exactly right well I do I don't think people understand there's a hundred percent correlation with what happens to a company's earnings over several years and what happens to the stock if the company McDonald's has done very well as a company right the stock is done very well people worry about too much money supply what's happened the price of oil whether who's the president who's being nominated for the Supreme Court the ozone layer it has nothing to do McDonald's earnings go up the next 10 years the stock will go but they will say to you Peter is that as you know and why am I telling you this but anyway it's fun to tell you this they're telling you that these other things influence the amount of earnings of a particular company if we're in a recession people are not going to spend as much money on going to the movies or whatever they do right and and therefore you got to pay attention to these other things because they impact on Earth they are very important but you have no idea of knowing what they're going to do Alan Greenspan is the head of the Federal Reserve right he cannot predict interest rates yes he'd be the first if you can influence somebody can't predict them he cannot predict what long-term insurance rates are going to be one year from now two years from now three years he's even surprised how low they are now right so how am I supposed to demonstrate how am I supposed to predict the economy you certainly remember the recession of 82 yes 1982 we had a 20 prime rate 14 unemployment 12 inflation I don't remember anybody telling me in 1980 or 81 that was going to happen all of a sudden we had the worst recession since the depression I didn't read about in the paper so it's crazy to think about these things here's a quote from you I own Dunkin Donuts when you own Dunkin Donuts you don't have to worry about Korean imports you don't have to worry about M2 or M3 these are money supply figures aren't they yeah and what's happening to the money supply this is the way you make money if you don't understand what the company does you should not be in it if you could predict the stock market you could predict the economy you could predict interest rates if you go buy the wrong stocks you're going to lose half your money anyway right I'm seeing people have natural advantages yeah let's say what you do for a living is you're involved in the restaurant news right you supply paper products you supply kitchen equipment you help build restaurants you saw McDonald's you saw chichis you saw Chili's you saw Cracker Barrel you saw Dunkin Donuts Kentucky Fried Chicken Taco Bell these are these test stories these were 40 40 fold you made 40 to 50 times your money you don't need to make that kind of money many times your life right no that's all you had to do was follow the restaurant industry people are in Industries they're in the publishing industry they're in the chemical industry the paper why don't they just stay with an industry you only need a few stocks a decade how many good stocks you need a lifetime instead of people they're in the restaurant industry they're buying biotechnology stocks the people on the campaign Illinois the people in the chemical industry are buying oil stocks it's absolutely absurd people don't understand their natural advantages and they don't use them so that's that's bad number one but worse number two if you don't think you're a good ice skater or if you're convinced you're not a good cellist you're not going to try it but people are buying stocks anyway they're not discouraged they just think it's a gamble so therefore they go forward and they they bet on one stock for a week and a half and it goes up and they make two dollars on it then they sell it they buy something else when three years is over all they've done is generate a lot of commissions they've probably lost money that's a mistake so your advice is what if you don't understand a company you can't explain it to a 10 year old in two minutes or less yes don't own it because when it goes down let's say the stock goes down too you won't understand what's going on what do you do do you buy more do you do you do you flip a couple chances are your broker doesn't either you they he or she certainly doesn't know about it I mean who knows what Advance what all these things are at Auto act planes and mega flops who knows what all this is so buy what you know Buy in your industry buy what you know Buy Local people so suppose you you don't have an industry I mean you know you don't really well you buy local companies it comes your own industry 10 years after Walnut went public 10 years at Walmart 10 years after it went public it's a 25 year old company now right you could have bought the stock and made 50 times your money on it 50 times this is if you bought a 10 years after it was public already it already gone up five-fold so you could have made 250 fold but I'm saying let's say you were in a town they came into it they said boy these prices are great they're doing terrific I like the bargains you checked it out you spent a little bit of work on it yeah I mean people are very careful when they buy a dishwasher they do some research they'll put ten thousand dollars in some stock they hear on a bus so if you did a little bit of research you say Walmart's only 10 of the country they're not even saturated there why can't they go to the rest of the country so is this this is more of the same it's more of the same plus I show examples it's it's a touch more detail this actually shows me an action right I picked 21 stocks early in 1990 two some work some don't I follow those companies some of the companies the fundamentals deteriorate some may improve I watch those companies go through the year I also explain the retailing industry I try to make it very simple and I talk about a wonderful example is a seventh grade class yeah the teacher of that read my book and my first book that you were talking about you you and I did a show on that in Washington you remember that show this is a long time ago she read the book and I said if you made it through fifth grade math you can do it in the stock market she says okay she started teaching it in seventh grade seventh grade class these kids had to study companies they had to look at the balance sheets to see if they're solvent yeah and they pick stocks these stocks were up 69 over two years when the market was up only 20.
and they picked stocks like limited they picked the Gap they picked they understood these companies they also picked IBM I lost money on that too I mean everybody makes mistakes yeah but I'm saying this is this was this was the school St Agnes's School in Arlington Mass but in addition and the jacket of the 80s there's 8 000 investment clubs these are amateur sort of right average people just investing these investment clubs 62 of them of these clubs beat the market in the decade of the 80s only 25 percent of professionals beat the market let me go back to one other subject you after you're coming back to Fidelity aren't you just I'm not going to do something when I when I finish this book I've been working about one or two days a week the last year and a half on this book right now I'm done with the book I'm going to go back to maybe one day a week working with the younger analysts just listening to them talking to them I'm not telling them to buy zero zero lifestyle not totally I'm not going to run another fund 13 years there's plenty of running a fund I'm just going to work with younger analysts let them ask questions I'll ask them questions it's gonna be a lot of fun and do you still follow you manage any money for anybody other than yourself nope nope I manage money with other people for some Charities right but no I don't manage anybody's accounts you're not doing some mutual funds no fun no it's nothing I'm out versus cold turkey cold turkey cold turkey are you happy you did four or five years ago you just said and I'm managing all this money I'm gonna do I'm gonna quit yep that's right and what and you went to do what well actually I wanted to spend more time with my wife and my children right and it was an interesting situation because I love my job I adored my job and I and I liked outside activities and when I was young you know I didn't wasn't involved in charity work until I was 30.
no activities younger children you just read them a book and good night Moon and they fall asleep and it's all over when they get older this there's more time involved so I enjoyed the family I was leaving for work at six in the morning I was getting home at seven o'clock at night six days a week visitors in Boston yeah traveling 14 days a month it was just too much so I said you know I I said that's it I can't take it unfortunately I'd made enough money to say I could give up the job so I didn't have to give up the family or the outside activities and so what happened then so you did what with your well I cut back from about a 80 a 90 hour a week to a 40 or 50 hour week and I in the morning I make breakfasts and lunches for the kids and I do the spelling words and the Spanish words and Carolyn does the math and the science and I uh see Carol in the morning and off I go to a place you have to go so in my opinion you have to go somewhere to do something if you stay at home you wind up answering the telephone or watching cartoons so yeah it's like you're falling asleep taking a nap so she does the hard work and I go I go I only gave me an office I have a secretary and I spend a majority of the time working on charity things like inner city schools Inner City libraries inner city housing you know people manage their money or no not at all just just um some of the Charities I'm on the investment Committee of some of the Museum of Fine Arts the I'm involved in National Hospital Boston College but United Way but all the extra things I added to were real Hands-On actually being involved in charitable activities
Comments 0