원문 보기
Jeremy if you're right and we're on the cusp of the bursting of an epic bubble is now the time to as they say sell everything I suspect selling everything would work out just fine however having said that there are major discrepancies as there were in 2000 between the U.S tech um which is overpriced the same as it was in 2000 and everything else so the value stocks the low growth stocks if you prefer it are about as cheap relative to the high growth stocks as they ever get so they will not have the same pain but they're still at risk to some degree I suspect the good news is that overseas they have not had the same huge bull market and the same overpricing that we have had and that and that of course is a Heaven Sent opportunity because you can go out into the Emerging Markets and they are absolutely not that expensive despite the ridiculous argument of comparisons with a overpriced bond market they're simply not that bad anyway and compared to the s p they're as cheap as they have ever been about they've been this cheap two or three times and each time it's worked out very well so you can buy emerging markets and you can look at the intersection of those two ideas which is the low growth stocks or the value stocks within emerging and they are handsomely priced you should be able to make a really decent 10 20 year return there you will not make a handsome 10 or 20 year return from U.S growth stocks that there is in the ad a simple arithmetic the higher you big bid up the price of an asset the lower the long-term return you will get there's nothing you can do to change that equation every day the market goes higher you know only one thing with certainty that the long-term return will be less than it was the day before I have no confidence and have not had any for over 20 years in Price to Book and PE and price to cash flow price of sales even as a measure of True Value a measure of True Value is the long-term discounted value of the future stream of dividends a growth stock is of course worth a higher ratio of this that and the other and then the low growth stock but that doesn't mean they can't be overpriced so value should be cheap for what you are you should build in the growth you should build in the quality and if it's overpriced it's overpriced but to use a simple-minded measure of book is a crazy idea a cheap book is the Market's vote on the worst assets out there in the marketplace the lowest PE is the Market's vote on the worst earnings most likely to be overstated or downgraded and the same with yield it's the Market's vote of the most likely to be cut these have no business being a good indicator of future performance um I'm also worried by the way about inflation it if you think you live in a world where output doesn't matter and you can just create paper sooner or later you're going to do the impossible and that is Bring Back inflation you know that we haven't seen for 20 years and and you keep it up on a global basis you will you will have inflation and and I can't help but notice that around the world the commodity prices of all of all kinds really but particularly critical uh food and and critical metals are going up and if you have that happening and you have a rapidly declining growth rate in in the workforce um towards zero and negative you were really set up for this time is different so we are not just in in a bubble Market but we're looking at a global economy that is at an inflection point uh to turn down in in long-term growth rate I also think shares that benefit from The Greening of the economy um uh will do much better than the rest anything to do with renewable energy the electrification of the system electric cars Etc these are all going to have top-line revenues that dwarf the declining growth rate of of the rest of the of the global economy it will take trillions of dollars to to decarbonize the global system it will dominate everyone's portfolio and if you have to own a U.S stocks they're the ones to own and look around for for a good climate change fund I'm happy to say GMO has one and it and and they're doing very well now that the focus is clearly uh finally took 20 years to wake up but in the last year people really are beginning to understand the size of the problem and the need to move money uh in in into Greening the economy what is the future value of of the dividend stream of Bitcoin I can tell you that that doesn't take a prize-winning mathematician it is nil um it will never pay you a dividend if you're desperate can you read it no you can't uh its entire value is on the greater full uh is it not so Bitcoin could be worth a million dollars a unit if you can find someone to pay it so could we say the same about gold doesn't generate any dividend stream there two things you can't eat it either yeah that should give you a measure of restraint in your enthusiasm for gold granted but gold has had the odd 12 000 year test which is has passed pretty well and Bitcoin has got a few years to go yet to catch up and secondly gold does have some fallback qualities um it doesn't tarnish it's Unique in that sense everything that was ever made of gold is still around and that's a pretty handy characteristic that Bitcoin also lacks so I would say yes I'm nervous about gold because I can't eat it and because it pays no dividend but it has two Wicked advantages over Bitcoin Bitcoin is 100 faith and come the next Market phase where faith is at a minimum what do we think will happen to a stock whose entire reason for existence is Faith and nothing but thing
댓글 0