저자: TylerBarry · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 2019년 2월 영상으로 S&P500은 단기 횡보·저점 높이는 중이라 2700 돌파 전까지 방향 불명확, 원유(UWT)는 상승 추세 전환 중으로 매수 우위, 천연가스·금은 약세로 판단. S&P500: 시간봉 기준 횡보하며 낮은 고점을 확인하는 흐름. 2700 지지 여부가 핵심이며 2703~2705 돌파 시 추가 상승 가능성을 언급. 2700 이탈 시 하락 전환 우려. 원유(UWT 등 레버리지 원유 ETF): 저점 형성 후 반등 확인, 상승 추세 전환으로 판단. 여러 번 지지된 52 부근 눌림 매수 전략과 상단 돌파 시 53 방향 상승을 제시. 52 이탈 시 손절 기준. 천연가스: 주말 갭상승 후 갭 메움 가능성과 단기 지지 여부를 언급, 현재 진입은 리스크가 크다며 공격적 매수 비추천. 단기 반등 스캘핑 정도만 가능하다고 봄. 금: 시간봉 기준 낮은 고점 형성, 약세로 판단하며 매도 관점 유지. 시장 뉴스에 따라 변동성 주의. 테슬라(TSLA): 300 레벨 지지 후 반등했으나 큰 흐름은 낮은 고점을 만드는 중, 일부 수익 실현. 최근 하락 전환. 외환: 달러(USD) 롱 포지션 유지, 금 약세 연동 언급. 기타: 주요 지지·저항 구간을 반복적으로 강조하며 손절 가격을 명확히 제시하는 방식. 출연자 전망 요약: 단기 원유 강세, 금·천연가스 약세, S&P500 2700 지지 여부 관건.
다듬은 글
alright guys, what's up what's up. Look at Adam's time today, it has ice. We'll look at the S&P 500 first. I'm hourly, as you see here we opened up, now I'm moving down, down, but on a tire time frame. So yeah, on the daily I just go in sideways right now, we're still heading up but kind of moving sideways. If anything, that's a lower high, and now we're confirming the lower high. Please sit 22. Nothing I'm keen on on the hourly; it just looks like we are selling off here. If we say above this area here, that's the 6,118 in the 6... how do I get that? That is the 6.8 from the highest point here back in September, I believe, and then down to the lowest point here. So we're right on the 6,118. If we were to use the Fibonacci on the big picture, that's where it has come up before, and it's struggled to break above this. It broke, well, this here consolidated sideways, so that is what we're looking at now.
Breaking it down a little further on the 15-minute, full play: this now looks like it's just chopping sideways on the 2,700. So if you're going to play this, on the daily, I would look to enter at 2,705, and I'd have my stop ready at 2,700. Yeah, really, if it breaks 2,703, then it's going to make a lower low. This is a demo account, but I went along here the other day, a while back, so I'm still long at 2,700 technically on my demo, just for fun. It's just a little fun position in there.
So, S&P 500 as of right now is making higher lows. We will need to stay above 2,700 first. The first time it breaks to 2,703, that's a sell right now. What I would do right now would be a nice position to go long, and then take profits—scalp it to 2,708 and see what happens at 2,708. Put your stop right below it at 2,700, and if you get stopped out, you maximize your position, because if not, it would have broken out on the actual play itself. We'll see what the S&P 500 does as of right now. On the hourly you can see it as a lower high, or you can see it as a higher low. You see how we're kind of consolidating up. Really, I would have liked to see both 2,710 for an actual uptrend to be confirmed, but whatever, it's just not moving very fast.
Oil, this was pretty awesome. Look at this oil chart here. Let's look at a fresh one, actually, guys, because I like doing that, that's fun. I see carries... "freshman" cool. Oh, these are for long. Yesterday, or yeah, yesterday Sunday, stock box below our house, our zones huddled up. My name is E. This, um, pretty good look at that. It closed just below it, just below it. Oh, that's close. So sorry for all of those who got stopped out. If you were bringing yourself too close, honestly, obviously I would have had my stop. I guess that's another area right here. Yeah, yes, because UWT is the play, and if you're playing this long, just wait for the confirmation on this one. I wouldn't have tried timing the bottom because it's just been constantly selling off, so I waited for that bounce and closed in. See how it bounced up here, and then this is exactly what I did today, actually, because I played UWT. I actually caught it a little; I was watching the 15-minute, I saw this balance and come back up, and then a retest, and I actually wanted to retest down here and have my stop right below this pivot here. It just right back up, and once it came to this area at the top, I actually, right here, I actually had a hedge with DWT, thinking it would actually... no, not here, actually. No, I did DWT here and I thought, as a hedge, just a small position, and then I believe on the 5-minute it did play there. Yeah, I saw this and I wanted to break this level, and I pretty much got stopped out there. So that was that, because I thought this was just going to be another higher low, and if it worked out perfectly on the hourly you would see that it would have been right here, and we were at the higher low, sell off. But once we broke that, I just added more to UWT, and obviously you can see it worked out pretty well. So really I think this is the bottom for oil as of right now.
If I was to take—you're going to see a pullback. Anyone who's not in it, you're going to see a pullback right here, your area here. I'd take profit, possibly, in this area here, but you could really swing this longer. Once it breaks above this, you're going to see this thing move a lot faster, because that's going to be the confirmation of definitely an uptrend. It just needs to break above this level, because we made these the other day, and on the 4-hour you can definitely see it a lot clearer why this is an area to be aware of. So, multiple touches there. For those in UWT, if you want to just, de-, try it, take profit here at the 52, and you can play UWT there, because it's going to happen. We're probably going to pull back now. You're going to see it pull back here. We're going to see a pullback for anyone who's looking to enter there; that would be your confirmation, and I would enter it. Let's see, if I was in this long, because I am, I would have my stop, because I entered it down here. Really, if you enter it now, your stop is the same as it would be if you entered down here, because that's just the way you play it. Stop right here at 52. Like, if it breaks that, that's a new lower low.
So oil is looking bullish. Playing it, break above this zone, I'll probably swing this one, to be honest with you, and look to take profit. Let's take a look here, guys. We've got our areas here—that's a pretty... that's going to see it touch there, and obviously a touch there as well. I'm just looking at the candle bodies there: touch, touch. Nice. So that's going to be an area to be aware of, as well as over here. Let's see where supply and demand look in right there; that's going to be your next area to really watch out for. So, cool, break above this, we're headed up to the 53. We'll see as of right now. Look at us like this. Do that pullback we're talking about; we need that now. I'm still in it. I'm not going to stop out. If I want to hedge it, I could hedge it right now, but I'm pretty set right now. Stay above this area here. We can't sell. It would be really nice if we just made a base right here, like we did over here. That'd be nice. Yeah, you see how we bounced over here, so if we bounce now in this area, that would be great.
Anyways, I spent too much time on this one. UWT is the play. Sorry, spent too much time. Go back, because I just run so much time as well. Go back and see what else is going on. SPY is still not doing much, sideways.
All right, now we'll look at natural gas, and I've got a cleaner chart for that. I just deleted all my other crap. Natural gas on the one-hour right now gapped up over the weekend. I wasn't... you guys, over the weekend, yet. I said it was 50/50, but it looked like it was breaking this resistance here, and that's what I was playing. It would have been a perfect entry for DJs, but because it was a swing and I had all this momentum, I used... I was a new guess. So looking at it now, we are holding this level. We need to stay above this level where this gapped up. Yep, that's going to be pretty major, and where is this base? It's holding right now. Let's see here, guys. It's the one-hour right there. It's not a major level, but gap filler there. And if we're looking at the daily—we're playing this on the daily—you go to 15-minute, thank you, computer. And yeah, that, me too. Looks like we're not doing so hot right now, because we really needed to hold this area here. Yeah, I'd say D-gas right now looks like this is a you-gas entry because of what we're here. It's a support, but once... I mean, look at that, that's pretty scary right there, all the way down to here. Yeah, that's looking like a big-ass play. You're a little late to the party if you're indeed as if you were to enter. You guess... your stop would still be up here. So if you were to enter you guess, obviously you'd be a little better of a play as of right now for a bounce play, just a sort of short little scalp, and it would be "you guess" here, stop right here. That's how close. I see the risk/reward for you guys right now is a better chance for the bounce, but it is not showing in favor, so you're kind of going against a trend. But on the big picture, you're not going against the trend, because this is bullish. A gap up is bullish; anyone who says that's not is kidding themselves. We can almost draw a trend line right here, right there. Let's see if we can make it better, one, Chinese... many touches as I can. That's pretty steep. Hmm, let's see what happens. It looks like it's respecting—you're pretty fun, pretty much there, there, there. So we need to break above this, otherwise it's D... yes. I'm not going to sit here and tell you to enter you guess, because that's stupid. Look at this: this has no potential of going up at this moment. We're just making higher lows, and because we broke this over here... yeah, definitely stuff. How do you guess? So that's for natural gas right now. It looks like we ran out the gap fill here soon, so that's pretty cool for those who are playing that. No, not looking so great on even this chart here. This one's a little cleaner, it's a little different platform. Well, yeah, we need to hold this pivot, hold this pivot. That would make sense: hold that area, hold down, hold down.
All right, just looking at gold next. This was awesome. I shorted this over the weekend. I actually was in GDS—ta da. I said this was a 50-50 shot because of this. Look at it, it's perfect. Then another, this was like it was starting to form this higher low stuff. It's just kind of 50/50 on that, but then the market was strong, and then it just sold off, and that's where I was like, yep, double down, short. Gold futures directly once this opened up yesterday, and saw a little bit of a pullback down. I was like, yeah, that's definitely bearish as heck. So I just held the oil lay down here and just trailed my stop, and got stopped out this morning. Gold futures as of right now, it looks like we're kind of doing this, like a pennant, like this little flag. Looks like a bull... are you actually think that's what that is? I don't really play patterns; I just am aware of them. So we need to break up or down with this area right now. We're sideways, so that would be... that's pretty cool. Oops, that works a lot. I really disappear to draw that. It would be looking like that, and looking like that. So yeah, see what happens here. Break out in one of these areas, hopefully confirmed, and then either go up or down. Right now it's still looking bearish, because, oh wow, the 15-minute looks bullish, because we're making this higher low. But on a big-picture hourly, that is bearish. That is a new lower high. So what would I be waiting for right now? I still would be in JDST, and on the 15-minute I would be in JBST, and the stop would be right above here. But you're in the middle, so this is kind of like Russian roulette. But JDST, if I'm still in it, I'm holding it, and if it breaks and really starts to trend up here, I'm going to cut it, switch to JDUB. But as of right now, that is the play. So gold is looking like a sell, but we're in this major area that it's bounced off that many times, especially if you look in the 4-hour. So bounce at the same area; we're just kind of figuring ourselves out, oh, higher low. Yeah, gold looks like a sell. Just be careful in these areas, especially with the market. See, that's the thing, like the market—it just depends on what the market is, the news. That's a tricky one. Gold is still a sell.
So: gold is a sell. Summarizing: oil is a buy, and as you see here, that was your pullback entry to enter. See how that worked perfectly? That's why I'm not even hedging, because that's what I assumed would happen. If it didn't, I was going to get stopped out with profit. Natural gas is definitely a sell; it's kind of building. Anyways, guys, Tesla would be one—gapped up, saying it really held this 300 level, which was great, but on the bigger picture it was making new lower highs on the hourly. That's why I did hold it. I did hold it, but it was only 5 shares, so I made like 60 bucks. Kind of a bummer, because I had about 30 shares still and made a profit. It was 290, I sold it at 303, 308... I'm like that, and I was in that—I'm swinging it, but then I sold off the other day. So that's that for right now. We'll recap everything else. I'll maybe send some stuff up in the Discord group chat, but I just want to get these major ones in. Anyone playing Forex: I am in USD long, mainly because gold is selling off, holding this level, stop-loss here. Yeah, probably, yeah, stop-loss there. So that's cool. Try to be sporadic. Apple on the one-hour is sideways, new lower high, needs to hold this area. CRON—actually, CGC was the one I'm playing today. If it loads here, look at that thing selling off. Let me check my orders here, and I stepped at all. Definitely not bullish. Parties only, you, yes, position. So that's why oil is doing good here. Hello, if this doesn't want to load on your cellphone, S&P 500 looks like it's trying to sell off, long side movies. Oh yes, not well. What should all stopped out of you guys—if you want to buy that? Oh wow, that sounds lone.
Anyways, guys, I'll give you an update here right now. Like I said, if you have any questions, let me know. If you'd like me to break down any of your stickers, let me know. I'll post this one in our Discord chat, what I see in CGC. Anyways, guys, I'll talk to you all later. Peace out.
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