저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
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결론: 트럼프 행정부 하 인플레이션 상승은 금에 호재이며, 경기는 2017년 침체 위험이 있어 주식 버블 붕괴와 금 상승이 예상된다. 금 전망: 대선 후 금은 하락했으나 과거 15년 성과가 좋았고, 인플레이션이 금리 인상보다 빨라 실질금리가 떨어지면 금이 강세를 보인다고 주장. 연준이 물가를 공격적으로 잡지 않던 2000년대 중반과 1970년대 금 급등 사례를 근거로 듦. 12월 말 매도는 잘못이었고 1월 저점 이후 큰 상승이 있었으며 내년에는 강하게 마무리될 것이라 봄. 경기·연준: 올해 GDP 성장률은 2% 미만, 연준 전망 2.1%도 낙관적이며 3% 성장은 어렵다고 봄. 2017년 초 경기침체 가능성을 언급. 연준이 12월에야 0.25%p 인상한 것은 경기 자신감 부족의 신호라고 해석. 연준이 신뢰를 주장하지만 금리를 거의 못 올릴 것이라 비판. 금리·주택·자동차: 채권 버블은 이미 터졌고 금리 상승이 약화된 경기를 악화시킴. 30년 고정금리는 대선 후 약 3.1~3.2%에서 4.2%로 올랐고 취임 전 5% 이상, 내년 6% 근접 가능성 제시. 주택 소유율은 60년래 저점, 재융자 시장 소멸, 주택가격 하락과 압류 증가 예상. 자동차 역시 0% 할부·리스·negative equity 롤오버 기반의 서브프라임 버블로 규정. 주식·트럼프: 트럼프의 규제완화·감세는 긍정적이나 이미 고평가된 주식 버블을 정당화하지 못하며 금리 상승은 주가를 끌어내림. 트럼프 정책으로 재정적자를 메우려면 연준의 추가 통화 부양이 필요하나 이는 실수이며 버블 붕괴는 막을 수 없다고 봄. 트럼프가 경제 문제를 해결할 수 없다는 입장. 출연자 관점: 전반적으로 금 강세, 주식·주택·자동차 약세, 경기 침체 가능성을 주장하는 비관론자.
다듬은 글
gold has gone down quite a bit since the election but I mean if you go back over the last 15 years uh Gold's had a pretty good track record and it's interesting that the reason that so many people have turned bearish on gold is because they believe that we're going to have more inflation under Donald Trump that we're going to have larger deficits as a result of uh tax cuts and increased government spending and that because of the higher inflation the FED is going to get more aggressive and raise interest rates and somehow the increase in interest rates is what's going to be bad for gold this is ridiculous higher inflation is good for gold and even if the FED is raising rates slightly even if it manages the three hikes that people think are coming uh next year and remember they were telegraphing four hikes this year and they only gave us one in December and they're actually the FED is actually less optimistic on the economy now than they were a year ago if you look at their GDP forecasts I even doubt we're going to get those hikes but even if we do I think inflation is going to rise much faster than interest rates and so real interest rates are going to fall and that's when gold shines brightest when you have inflation that is not being fought aggressively like during the bush term when Greenspan was raising rates every quarter every time they met and gold prices went from under 300 to 1,000 or if you go back to the 1970s when the Fed was behind the curve on inflation and gold went from 350 to 850 50 or from $35 an ounce to $850 while the Fed was raising rates so I think the idea that higher inflation is bad for gold is preposterous I think they're right we're going to get more inflation but it's not a negative for gold it's a huge positive and the markets were wrong about gold at the end of last year they sold it off when the FED raised raised rates it bottomed out in January and then had a huge run I think we're going to have another big run next year but I think next year we're going to finish the year strong as opposed to have this Trump related sell off but a lot of people look at this Peter and they say just because you know the FED wrongly predicted four hikes we only got one hike just because that didn't work out doesn't mean that that's what we're going to see in 2017 they would argue we're on to New Times they're looking at the data out there they're looking at GDP showing you know solid growth over 3% they're looking at corporate profits continuing to rebound uh so how can we confidently buy into the theory that we are on to a gold bll run or do you not necessarily think that's the case anymore well first of all GDP growth for this year is going to end up below 2% and the FED is only forecasting 2.1 for next year and I think they're too optimistic so we're not getting 3% we'll be lucky if we get 2% we may not even get that we could be on the cusp of a recession right now it wouldn't surprise me to have a recession early in the first year of the Trump term and I think the reason that the FED waited until December to raise rates by a quarter is because in contrast to their claims to have confidence in the economy they have no confidence in the economy that's why they waited so long and that's why they raised interest rates so little remember when Allen Greenspan cut interest rates to 1% uh in the aftermath of the uh Tech bubble bursting and September 11th he brought interest rates to 1% because he was so worried about the economy now the FED is supposedly so confident and um they can't even raise interest rates above a half uh this is a complete bubble that the FED has blown you know uh Trump was right when he was a candidate it's a big fat ugly bubble it's even bigger fatter and uglier now and it's not just the stock market and by the way the bond market bubble has already bursted and so interest rates are rising and that is going to compound the problems for an already weakening economy so if the economy was weak last year it's going to be even weaker next year now you've expressed some concern in the past uh for the impact of a Fed rate hike on the housing and auto sectors more specifically what do you see as the vulnerability there well these these sectors are completely dependent of cheap money I mean people buy houses based on their monthly mortgage payment and fixed rate mortgages the 30-year fixed rate has basically gone from about 3 and 1.2% when Trump was elected to 42% now it could be over 5% by the time he's inaugurated and he can easily be close to Six uh you know next year I mean nobody can afford these rates we already have home ownership near a 60-year low because people can't afford the low rates we had obviously they're not going to be able to afford the higher rates that we have now or the rates that we're getting in the future so you're going to see a drop there you're going to see a complete end to the refi market so that Lifeline is gone people were able to rely on lowering their payments with refi nobody can do that anymore and I think now with higher cost to borrow money to buy houses real estate prices are going to start to fall so that means more foreclosures again so that's a problem and the auto bubble this has all been about 0% down letting people roll the negative equity in their trade-ins into an even bigger loan with cheap money it's been about leases and extending the payments this is a huge subprime bubble and the air is already coming out of that so all the things the government propped up with cheap money are going to topple as you take the cheap money away okay when I interviewed you back on Election Day you talked about how Traders had decided a trump win was bad for stocks good for gold that was certainly the consensus at the time but as we know the opposite has turned out to be true investors are are seemingly bullish on a trump economy so what what are your thoughts there because it sounds to me that you're you're bearish on the economy but you do seem to be a little bit more upbeat about Trump can you be bullish on Trump bearish on the economy where do you stand well first of all that was the original reaction right I mean as soon as Trump won uh the stock futures were down what whatever 800 points gold was up 60 bucks so that knee-jerk reaction was there but if you remember I said I didn't understand why people thought that Trump was worse for the stock market than Clinton because I said Trump is promising things that would normally be good for the stock market like less regulation and lower taxes but the problem is the stock market is already overvalued it's a bu and so just because we're going to get some tax cuts and Regulatory relief doesn't undo that bubble I mean it helps but it's not going to justify the inflated valuations and of course as interest rates go up that automatically brings stock values down but I think it's also interesting that the same stock traders that were so worried about what would happen to the market if Trump Won dominity Won now they just started buying because all they want to do is justify a move up believe me had Clinton won they would have said oh we dodged the bullet let's buy stocks you know we dodged Trump you know this Market is feeding on itself you know it's like a horse with a bit in its mouth and it keeps on going people are ignoring that the things that they think are going to happen are impossible they think oh now we're going to get fiscal stimulus so we don't need monetary stimulus you know if we get the fysical stimulus we need monetary stimulus more than ever to make it possible there is no way to finance these deficits unless the FED steps up and does it now of course this is a mistake they shouldn't do it that's why we're in so much trouble but I don't think there's any way Trump can fix these problems they are unfixable we can't stop the bubble from popping nor should we try you know Trump was elected and I was saying I thought he would get elected because the economy is so messed up
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