저자: MarcFaber · 외국인
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결론: 마크 페이버는 AI·반도체 등 주도주에 붕괴 전조가 보이며, 정부의 통화 발행으로 인한 인플레이션 위험을 경고하지만 1~3개월 단위의 구체적 가격 목표는 제시하지 않음. [AI·반도체 및 시장 과열] 한국 증시가 삼성전자·SK하이닉스에 대한 투기적 열기로 과열됐다고 지적. 마이크론·엔비디아 등 반도체와 매그니피센트7에도 펀더멘털 검증 없이 자금이 몰린다고 봄. AI 버블은 잘 알려져 있고 관련 기업들이 완벽한 성장을 전제로 가격이 매겨져 있어, 작은 차질에도 매도될 것이라 주장. 반도체주와 매그니피센트7은 이미 고점을 찍었다고 판단하며, 현재 시장 반등은 '서머 랠리'로 규정. [통화 발행과 인플레이션] 정부가 돈을 찍으면 주식이 아니라 통화 가치가 떨어질 수 있다고 봄. 달러는 유로 대비뿐 아니라 귀금속·비트코인 대비로도 하락 가능성 언급. 새 연준 의장도 적자 유지를 위해 인플레이션이 10~20%여도 신경 쓰지 않을 것이라고 주장. 과거 독일 초인플레이션 같은 시나리오가 오면 사회적 피해가 클 것이라 경고. [비트코인·금 등] 비트코인 버블로 수조 달러가 손실됐는데 주류 언론이 이를 다루지 않는다고 비판. 비트코인을 건드린 사람은 대부분 손해를 봤다고 평가. 금은 아주 싸지는 않다고 보며, 위기 때는 금도 30% 정도 하락할 수 있고 유동성 확보를 위해 매도될 수 있다고 설명. 다만 실물 금·은은 보험적 성격으로 보유 가치가 있다고 함. 금·은 광산주는 2024~2026년 대상승 후 부진했으나 바닥 국면에 가까워 다음 랠리의 출발점일 수 있다고 봄. [채권·금리] 채권은 주식보다 손실이 적을 수 있어 최근 약간 긍정적. 연준이 금리 인상에 신중할 것이며, 생활비 상승을 고려하면 금리는 여전히 너무 낮다고 평가. [식품·에너지·신흥국] 원유는 상대적으로 비싸지 않으며, 밀·옥수수·대두 등 농산물은 매우 싸다고 봄. 기술 발전으로 생산량이 늘었지만 향후 2년 내 식품 가격이 상당히 오를 가능성 제기. 태국 시장은 25% 상승했고 인도네시아 주식은 매수 구간이라고 언급. [출연자 조언] 현금과 배당 등 현금흐름을 확보해 싸게 살 기회를 기다리라고 조언. 주식 밸류에이션은 역대 최고 수준이라고 봄.
다듬은 글
You know, so sometimes the analysts are correct. Most of the time analysts are worthless. Worseless completely. In a bull market, you don't need analysts. And in the bare market, you should all fire them. and welcome to another episode of the Convest Report where I chat with industry experts to discuss the market, commodities, stocks, and the economy.
As always, I'm your host, Arlon Hansen. Certainly doesn't change. This interview isn't investment advice. I'm not a professional adviser or a geologist. However, I have been investing and kicking rocks for over 25 years. I visited mine sites around the world and certainly learned what works and doesn't work in this market.
Any financial interest can or myself as in any of the companies mentioned in today's interview will be disclosed. Be sure to do your own due diligence. Don't be an idiot and be buying stocks as people are talking on a podcast. Please. Today I'm bringing back the legendary Mark Favor aka Dr. Doom. One of the world's most recognized contrarian investors, publisher of the legendary Gloom, Boom, and Doom Report, and author of the bestselling Tomorrow's Gold.
He spent decades challenging consensus views and identifying opportunities where others see risk. Mark, great to have you back on the show. How you doing today? Fine. Thank you very much for having me on your show and good day to your viewers and listeners. Oh, awesome. I love that. Thank you. Um, I guess we're going to start.
Um, you've in some of your recent interviews, you've started saying we're seeing the first signs the investment mania is beginning to crack. What are you seeing that's given you some of that conviction? Well, there are many symptoms surrounding a bubble, but one of them is excessive speculation. And it doesn't have to be excessive speculation in say Britain or in America or wherever.
It can be in a specific uh sector of the market. say recently a feature of the bubble was an incredible speculative enthusiasm and mania in Korean stocks. The whole country was basically speculating in uh the equity markets specifically in two stocks in Samsung and in SNIX and uh that is a symptom but uh also in the world when you have all the money flowing into Micron Technology Nvidia the semiconductors and um magnificent seven stocks and uh people buy these stocks without any true knowledge about uh the fundamentals of these companies and they disregard the valuations.
Uh one has to become suspicious. Now I explained that the top of a market is very complex. Like if we talk about the commodity like coffee, coffee can peek out on one day and that's it. But the stock market is composed of different industries of different companies and uh is composed also in terms of waiting differently.
So you can have an index. I compared it to the peak in the market in the late 60s and early 70s. We had the utilities index speaking out in 1965 and then the majority of stocks and speculative stocks including aerospace and conglomerates in 1968 and then the final peak was in January 1973 which was driven by the so-called nifty50.
uh these were like 40 50 stocks where people would argue they will continue to grow and therefore you can pay any price for it and we know what the result was. I mean you look at Polaroid and Kodak and Xerox a lot and and Sears and JC Penney a large number on Boros also a large number of these companies disappeared.
So yes, at the time I was kind of uh on friendly terms with the analyst at White Weld, which was the gross stock firm. And uh the analyst was covering Polaroid and Kodak and she was telling people you know how much uh the eventually the Chinese population of more than a billion people how many photos they would take.
And it's interesting that the analysts actually underestimated the quantity of pictures people would take. They just didn't take them on Kodak films and Polaroid films, but they took them on the mobile phones, right? You know, so sometimes the analysts are correct. Most of the time analysts are worse.
Worseless completely. In a bull market, you don't need analysts. And in the bare market, you should all fire them because Oh, you avoid them like a plague because they're they're fighting for their job. That's what they're doing. Yes. So anyway, but in that case the analyst were correct. The world is taking today more pictures photos than anyone would have imagined.
I mean just think how many pictures people take on Facebook and it's it's unbelievable. And you still and you only see one out of a thousand that's taken. I could just say it's incredible how much I agree with you. I agree with you. Wow. But it's it's remarkable how few people have really made money out of photography,
you know, when you look at companies. It's all free of charge. Yeah. Yeah. 100%. Well, it's kind of interesting like a lot of these investment mania or these booms really are around some of these revolutionary technologies such as this, right? So that kind of leads me to AI and this revolutionary technology and it's so blue sky that people don't even know how big it could be.
So they're creating all these stories in their head of how big it could be. Now it'll never probably be that big and that's where it will all collapse. That's my opinion. But where do you think we're heading in this AI and where do you think we are in this mania of AI and how that affects the overall market?
Well, I think this AI bubble is well known and well recognized and companies that are involved in it are priced for perfection. Do you understand? just for them not to go down, the growth has to be uninterrupted and perfect. Yes, if there's a slight glitch uh people will sell them and I happen to think that you know not withstanding the rebound in the market at the present time which is uh usually called the summer rally that the semiconductor stocks and the magnificent seven have basically peaked out.
Mhm. But and here I have to say there's a big butt and that is if the government if the government prints money is difficult to measure anything because uh the money printing lift asset prices then say we could have a bare market in stocks but the stocks don't go down instead say the currency goes goes down and the currency doesn't necessarily have to go down say in the case of the US dollar against the euro.
It could go down against precious metals as an example or it could go down against Bitcoin. I don't think it will happen against Bitcoin, but I believe that if the government and also the new Fed chair, I think they will be forced to print money and to keep the deficits going. He doesn't care whether inflation is is 20% or 10%.
it it doesn't matter to him. In fact, for his hotels and so forth, nothing is better for him than high inflation, right? And low interest rates, relatively low interest rates. Even if interest rates are 10%, if inflation is at say 13%. He will like it. Yeah. Well, I guess it doesn't matter when you're the one pressing the button.
Hey. Yeah. Sorry. You know, you know when the button will be pressed. Yeah. So, like what what proves you wrong in this scenario? Is there a scenario that proves you wrong? Well, I mean, in theory, the stock market within the next two years, I'm talking about in theory, if you print enough money, in theory,
the stock market could double in a year or two years or three years. It's possible, but you then have to look at what is the standard of living of typical people. In my opinion, if this if we are in the environment of what was described about the 1920s hyperinflation in Germany, namely the hyperinflation scenario.
In that case, everything goes ballistic and the standards of people go down like a stone. But he doesn't care because these people are the money people. I also care relatively little as an investor, but I care as an economist and social uh observer because I think that this kind of environment will create huge social problems.
Huge. Okay. I want to go back to what you just said and I think I think this is brilliant. I noticed that you separated yourself from an investor and how to make money and from an economist. Now, I think that a lot of people aren't able to do that, right? They they they just they think that an investor is who they are as a person, right?
Um and so therefore then they have to look at all the things of the economy and make the decisions based on that. So, but that's it. That's interesting that I just noticed that you you broke that out separately and I think that's very important when it comes to managing your money is like okay what's important to manage my money and what's important from a society for societal point of view.
Yeah. Yeah. These are two completely different matters. But is as a portfolio manager basically you're interested that your net net asset value goes up because then your fees go up and your wealth increases. But then as an economist and social observer you have to think what is the impact on society and I can assure you based on the literature and I've read a lot you can see the bookshelf that I have and so
uh based on the experiences in history of periods of accelerating inflation increase in the government debt and money printing. The results have always been a complete destruction of the general wealths. So what makes people think that this is anything different? Like are they just absolutely convinced just by the media and by what the government says that this is going to be okay or they've lived 20 years thinking that they just keep borrowing money and this is all going to be fine?
Yeah. like like like you said 100% of the time it leads to destruction. I want to explain uh a few issues that in this respect are important. Who does CNN and Fox and so forth interview? Not the man on the street and the poor people and the hardworking people, but they interview mostly the fund management industry.
Now the fund management industry, they sit in grass buildings and uh on Wall Street and basically even if they might know and most people would not know and the one uh know it all who has no clue about anything. Now you have this group of people, they go on TV and so forth and even in the remote case that they knew that we're heading into a very difficult time or a complete disaster, they will not tell the TV because if they tell the TV, they won't be invited again.
And it's not self- serving, right? It's not self- serving. Yeah. And the clients will then call up and say why how can you be this bearish and this and that do you understand? So they will say something that is nice that is uh boosting confidence of the people that buy the garbage. They want essentially they are the asset holders in in their mind.
They want to unload their wealth onto simple people who then overpay the price and the simple people. It's like the family made money out of cryptos and everybody who touched and I have to say you have to be really dumb to touch anything but but the media supported him and anyone who touched anything lost money over time.
Everybody. Well, let's we could talk about that for a quick second here. Like, how come no one's talking about the Bitcoin bubble that just happened? You know, $160,000 of Bitcoin. I don't know what it is now. I don't care. I don't follow it. But like, everyone's talking like, "Oh, it's just a little bit of volatility." Like, come on.
This is insane. Yeah. Yeah. Sure. It's $160,000 for a piece of digital paper. I like I I just And no one's talking about it like it was a bubble. Oh, whatever. You know, trillions got lost. In Canada, we had the cannabis bubble. You know, maybe a few hundred million, maybe a billion was lost, but it was like the world came to an end with a cannabis bubble.
And this Bitcoin bubble robbed people of trillions of dollars and no one's talking about it. Yes. Explain. As I said, Wall Street is very Americans that I have to say that I also observe that the World Cup they're very good at promoting any garbage really unbelievable. Other people would sort of kind of feel ashamed to promote as much as the US, but the US is very good at it.
Well, what I find interesting about it is that they're promoting to the people who want the wealth, right? They're they're promoting to the people who are not yet wealthy. And those are the people who are willing to do whatever it takes to get wealthy. Yeah. Yeah. Sure. And they're the one and they're the ones who are most willing to believe that if I do this, I will become wealthy.
Yes. Right. So, they're praying on the weak. They're praying on the meek. Yes. When they do do this, right? But I have to say one thing. You understand? People are through their lives and through their experiences conditioned to certain facts without a question. And one fact, for the last 40 years, specifically since September 1981, we had a declining interest rate structure until August 20th uh 2020.
interest rates are coming down and asset prices around the world. Real estate, stocks, paintings, collectibles, wines, old cars, everything tended to move up. And so the generation, the young generation believes things will move up. Okay. Now they also think that money they know that money is losing its purchasing power.
So they don't want when I grew up my grandparents said you have to put 10% of your salary into the bank on deposit and then you have some savings and this and that that savings are a disaster over time compared to stocks and compared to real estate and so was so people they bought real estate and stocks that kept on going up.
I mean I thought 2007 2008 we had a real estate bubble. I thought real estate prices will never exceed that peak because it was very high relative to incomes. Now it's about three times higher. It's crazy crazy. But I said to you before, it leads to impoverishment. And in the real estate market, this is a very good example.
Real estate prices have gone up and according to Goldman Sachs, affordability is at an oldtime low. That's why housing sales are depressed. You would think that if home prices go up, that there's a boom. that sales transactions over here. No, it's not the case. It's it's not demand driven, it's inflation driven.
Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. So anyway, I tell you maybe stocks in nominal terms will continue to go up for a while, but obviously uh some stocks did not go up. Say in 2021 the meme stocks peaked out and the year two years before it was as you mentioned the cannabis stocks they peaked out and after the meme stocks what peaked out or some blue chip stocks and uh a year ago some fun stocks peaked out and now I think we've seen the peak in semiconductors But I wouldn't say personally I don't sell short because
we have this money printing and it can go on for a long time and I mean he is basically from an environment big money. His wife is a loader from Esther Lauder. Yeah. These are billionaires. They don't want to see the stocks collapsing. No, the billionaires are the greediest of all. Yes. And he has a Goldman Sachs background.
He doesn't want the stocks to collapse either. So, he'll be very careful in increasing interest rates. And in my view, interest rates relative to the cost of living increases are actually still too low. Interesting. Interesting. Um, recently you become a little bit more constructive on bonds. Yes. Why?
It's difficult to be constructive on bonds, but my argument is in bonds you may lose less money than in stocks. I mean the strategy that I have today is I don't think that gold is very cheap but in an environment where they print money maybe it's not that expensive I don't know but as a strategy I have to say I have a limited life in expectancy from my high age already.
So for my standards, I have enough money. I don't need more. What I need is good health and say a peace of mind and so forth a nice environment and and then but I don't need to make more money, but I what I'd like to do is not to lose everything, not to lose everything. It's a good idea. My strategy is how do I lose the least money when the hits the fan
fan? And that I am convinced will happen and big time. Big time. Yeah. And and when the finally does hit the fan, is that one you're going to be really glad you hold physical gold and silver? I hope so. But I want to explain. Say you take a family. I live in Thailand in the north. You take a lowerass family in Thailand.
Uh they will own as their wealths increased over time, they buy first the motorcycle so they can go to work and bring the children to school. And as they become more affluent, they will buy sell the motorcycle or keep it and buy a car. And as a security what they will do is buy a life insurance and the health insurance and then they buy a house for the family and so forth.
And this they will not own any stocks. But what they will do is when they have cash they will buy some gold. Not not huge not a ton of gold. They don't have that kind of money that they buy a few coins and so forth. Mhm. And when the crisis hit, they live in a house, they have to pay the mortgage, they have a car, it's on installment credit.
They will keep on paying these things because they need the car to go to work. They need the car to bring the children to school. They need the house to live. and they don't want to lose face in front of the neighbors so that they will continue to pay. But in emergency, nobody sees if they sell gold or not.
So when when things go bad, some people will sell gold for sure. And that's why I say on the Iran war, when it deteriorates, they're selling on gold. And when the conditions improve and makes another piece deal, he's made quite a few already. Still haven't seen one come through. Well, he he he he shouldn't get one noble prize.
He should get about a 100 Nobel prizes. And anyway, uh the when things deteriorate and asset prices go down, gold will go down as well, but much less than other things. And possibly it is possible not very likely but possible that if say the stock market crashed by 80% it's possible that uh gold would go up is possible but I think it will also go down but say only by 30%.
Yeah, I found in major kind of short-term crashes that gold becomes a gold becomes a liquidity event, right? It's it's like they're losing money everywhere else and so they sell their gold to keep to keep, you know, afloat almost, right? Yeah. Yeah. Correct. Yeah. Um Okay. Where where do we go from here?
Uh let's talk about the energy market very quickly. We don't need to dive into it very like deep, but like how concerned are you about these energy prices and the the pressure that it's putting on the market right now? Well, if if I compare the price of oil to the price of stocks to the price of gold to everything else, oil is actually quite inexpensive.
Not as inexpensive as wheat, corn, soybeans. Agricultural commodities are very cheap at the moment, but oil is not terribly expensive at this level. And why do you think these agricultures commodities are very cheap right now? That's weird to me. That's weird to hear. Actually, this is a very good question.
Why are agricultural commodities so cheap? I suspect that uh the technology to produce wheat, corn, soybeans has improved dramatically and so the yields have exploded in countries like China and India and other countries that can produce these commodities and as soon as the prices go up, farmers plant more.
So of course, of course, right? because we want to make more money. Yes. So, but it's not an entirely satisfactory response and the satisfactory response to the question about why is uh food so cheap compared to other things in the world. I think uh it may be sort of a mispricing and it would not surprise me that food prices will go up in the next two years significantly.
I I don't see any sol I don't see a scenario where it can't like it just it just feels that way you know less agricultural land more more expensive water will be more expensive everything you need I agree with you walking continues to go up and up and up including the equipment to farm is going up it just doesn't doesn't stop and like and I'm curious like you know by the time it reachs our grocery stores right like what kind of mitigations in there by the government on if it is being mispriced because like if if food actually doubled in price over the next 6 months, their citizens would lose their mind.
Like it would be like civil war inside your country, right? Because people already are stretched in Canada at least for their food bills. This is why I'm saying when you we when we look at an economy, we shouldn't just talk to the people on Wall Street, you understand? Because the Wall Street totally
are not people representative of the typical American or typical Canadian. They are people they have a coat and a tie and they basically don't care much about food prices. They care a lot about the price of cocaine and other hard drugs. That is like but that is such a reality though like their perception of the world is is they're like locked in this glass house thinking that this only thing that works is how much money they are making.
Yes. Right. Yeah. So they like that is a really interesting perspective. They're they're stuck in that perspective. But the housewives they know and ordinary people who get salaries they work in factories and so forth or they work in big companies. their lower end employee, a clerk or whatever, they spend a high percentage of their income on necessities of life, including rents, food, health care, education, and so forth.
They suffer from this inflation. Do you think cares whether the steak at his steakhouse costs $60 or 65 or $70? He's never paid a bill in his life anyway. It's like you and I buying a little stick of gum. Like honest to God, like that's what it means to him. It's not even a stick of gum, right? Yes.
Yeah. Um always I got a couple more quick questions here for you and they don't have to go deep, Mark, but just so we can wrap this up. Um, one investment almost everyone owns that they probably shouldn't. Semiconductor stocks, AI related stocks. Yeah. Yeah. One investment almost nobody owns but they should.
I think what we just talked about some food related companies. Yeah. And uh I think also utilities might be okay. not necessarily um priority, but I think the defensive sectors are neglected. Anything that doesn't move is neglected. Until recently, uh Thailand as a stock market was neglected. It was considered to be a failed state, a rotten state.
Does not work anything. But the stock market is now up almost 25% this year. And one stock market that I think is now becoming attractive is Indonesia. Yeah, I think Indonesian stocks are in a buying zone in a buying range. I think gold shares mining stocks that had a huge run in 2024 25 and 26 they have not performed well.
They have come down a lot but I think precious metals are sort of in a bottoming phase. Feels like it from which the next rally might start. Yeah, I I actually kind of agree with you on that one too. Um last and final question mark. You've lived through almost every major financial cycle over the last 50 years.
Right. If there's one piece of advice you could give to young investors like me heading into the next five years, what do you think it would be? I think it's important as an investor, but also for you yourself for your confidence and for your happiness to have reserves when other people don't have them.
In other words, I always have a lot of cash. I like cash and I have like like cash flow because if you understand say you have a property and it yields a certain amount and you get every year a certain quantity of money the value of the property may go up and down or the value of the stock may go up and down but if the dividend is relatively safe and I have to say not all dividends are safe but say there are lots of companies that have paid dividends.
Occasionally they cut them somewhat and then they increase them again. But the cash flow gives you uh flexibility when the most important as an investor is to have money when things are cheap. And when when things are cheap by definition other people don't have the money otherwise they wouldn't be cheap.
You don't want to have the money when sticks so stocks are high like they are now valuation wise. We at the highest valuation ever. We want to have money when things are bad. My only worry is when things are really bad. Maybe the banks are all ped and we don't have the cash either. That's uh Yeah, that's fair enough.
You understand that? that that's why I say physical gold may not be a bad option. Yeah, I I'm a big believer that when things get really bad, we ain't getting the money from the bank. But that's my that's my little tinfoil, you know? So, um Mark, always a pleasure talking to you. I I love speaking to people with your wisdom and your and your humor, but like your experience, right?
Like you see things how it is. Like it's just and you call it how it is and and I I appreciate that you're not just another talking head from the media. And yeah, you're right. Who knows? We don't know what happens tomorrow. Like for us to claim that we know what's going to happen tomorrow is ridiculous as well.
But uh I do appreciate your insight, Mark. Thank you very much. Okay. Thank you very much. Byebye. Take care, my friend.
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