저자: frugalTIGER · 외국인
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유튜버 frugal TIGER가 팔란티어(PLTR) 투자로 약 100만 달러 손실을 봤다고 고백하는 영상. 2019~2020년 상장 후 장기 보유 목적으로 매수했으며, 장기 양도소득세 혜택을 노려 손절을 미룬 것이 실수였다고 자평. 주가가 26달러대에서 하락 후 약 8달러대까지 밀림. 시장 대비 개인 종목 과도 노출, S&P 선물 헤지 부족, 물타기가 주요 교훈으로 제시됨. 이후 스퀘어, 로쿠, 넷플릭스, 페이스북 등 하락 종목 분할 매수 중이라고 언급.
다듬은 글
today we're gonna do story time with frugal tiger me being down over a million dollars in palantir stock i want to talk about really fast how i got here i have not been investing so much in the stock market over the last uh nine to ten months i had a feeling that the market was overvalued and i was trimming most of my positions most of them being at this point s p uh qq things like that but i was still looking for an investment because i was super worried that the market was going to continue to rip higher and rip higher without me after doing a lot of research i had made a choice in purchasing palantir stock and i'll tell you guys right off the bat why how did i even know about this company how was i even introduced to it why did i even bother looking at the fundamentals i'm not a fundamental investor i'm a trader i'll i'll tell you guys a story so uh i actually applied to work at palantir my entire bankroll in terms of trading stocks was a combination of two things either working a tech job or day trading full time and palantir was a ginormous name in the industry among other programmers everyone knew that palin it is harder to get a job in palantir than it was even in google their technical screening process is the most rigorous i did not even pass the first round of tech screening with palantir uh i remember sending an email uh seeing an email hey thank you for your application go [ __ ] yourself but i knew that the people who work there were very passionate about the work they were doing and i knew that they were building probably next level products based on the town pool that they were able to get you know you can kind of gauge a place just by the you know the people the kind of culture that they try to employ and things like that and the fact that they have the money to pay all these people good salaries rsu or restricted stock units which are essentially options contracts for insiders of the company back in 2019 or 2020 after their ipo i really started to do a lot more fundamental research and that's when i started piling into palantir i was i started buying palantir not just for day trades anymore but hold some exposure overnight it was right around 14 or 15 a share when palantir was around that price where i had looked at the fundamentals and i decided that this was the company that i was gonna start buying most of my exposure to the s p was now done um i needed one stock uh that i was gonna put a lot of exposure to and to hedge the risk of that stock i was gonna be ready to short s p futures in the case of a market crash or nasdaq futures in the case of a market crash to hedge off my risk i wasn't going to put all my money in palantir my goal was somewhere between 25 to 30 percent that was my ballpark marker if i got good prices i was gonna dollar cost average right around 20 uh it kept running higher and higher for the longest time it had a lot of retail speculation but unlike these other [ __ ] companies like space like clove like wish this company's fundamentals were legit like their revenue growth look at their revenue growth from 2019 until now it's like over a billion dollars now is it like a couple hundred million dollars in 2019.
that is insane revenue growth they're not a meme stock like a lot of people say so i decided that in order to make up for the fact that i would not have so much money in the s p q q whatever i was gonna keep a relatively abnormal size exposure to one stock for me in the long term which is very different than how i normally trade i usually buy index funds like vo spy qqq stuff like that as my long term investment that way i can really just stay kind of focused on day trading if you take a look at palantir stock it has plummeted uh from that point in time the stock essentially kept dropping for a wide variety of different reasons i think the market just basically crashed all of these type of speculative names the tape was looking very weak in palantir stock from about 26 but i chose not to sell it at 26.
it looked like it wanted to go lower because i kept saying to myself it's a long-term investment why the obsession with long-term investment i want to explain to you guys something that is very crucial to my thought process here of long-term investment and that is when you trade short term you're always hit with short term capital gains i am going to be paying multiple six figures in taxes for my performance in 2021.
as a short-term day trader everything that i make money on i pay taxes at the normal tax rate whatever it is it's like i think it's like 37 38 i'll try to correct that for the course of this video i'm at the max tax rate part of the benefit of being a long-term investor someone not weaving in and out of palantir stock as long as i hold it for one year i get the lower tax rate which will for me be 20 so that was kind of why i was obsessed with just maintaining the position and not trimming it because i did not want to lose my long-term tax status i chose the dollar cost average on these dips it's left me with a one million dollar loss that is gonna take me some time to recover from i and honestly if you guys want to know the truth i think this uh current crash that we have crash or whatever uh i don't really call it a crash i don't think the market has crashed but palantir stock has um uh most a lot of small cap stocks have basically crashed it's gonna probably be priced low for some time now until the market can figure out its footing and in that time i'm stuck holding a pretty large bag i now want to talk about quickly uh what i should have been doing you guys got the idea that hey part of this was i wanted a long-term investment i was a little overconfident and cocky about being able to short sell s p futures against palantir to reduce some of my losses in palantir um but this approach had not worked as well as i would have liked mainly because s p if you look at it's down what 17 18 volunteers down it's down 66 percent from my cost basis my cost basis is like 16 it's almost 17 a share i feel like there's some important learning lessons here and i want to go over that with you a i think the most important one is the fact that yes i kept saying this is a long-term trade for me and eventually you can make it into a long-term investment if everything holds up but when the tape is weak i should have been trying to do one of two things i should have been recycling out of my position and what i mean by recycling is selling palantir even if it's even if i had to sell it at a loss at you know 17 18 a share the tape was still weak i should have been looking to rebuy those shares that i just sold even lower or b i should have been shorting some of volunteer stock in another account to offset my losses in my long-term investment that way i still keep my long-term uh trading status but i also protect myself uh on the obvious weakness that was palantir stock during this time yeah i mean those were two very big mistakes part of my problem was i was just obsessed with this long-term capital gains i had two friends two people i know very closely one of them sold tesla stock got long-term capital gains treatment on that tesla sale and barely had to pay any taxes versus myself i'm cutting six figure checks and taxes uh on every winning year that i have i i feel like i learned a very valuable lesson which is you're paying taxes because you're earning a lot of money right now i'm in the scenario where i'm not paying taxes because i'm taking a bath on palantir shares i should have known to to basically sell it and recycle back in at a later time or or short it and the third mistake is dollar cost averaging this was stupid in in hindsight i like i was dollar cost averaging on the way up i was dollar cost averaging on the way down and it honestly made no sense i should have wait i should have waited for a time that it went to turn around where it was obvious that the tape there was buying demand back again in palantir before i started dollar cost averaging my effective hedge of market timing and shorting the s p i made about 280 thousand dollars short selling s p futures over the course of five to six months and that really didn't hedge my losses and volunteer very much and hey i got a little chicken scared of shorting the s p part of it is because you guys remember in 2020 i got my face ripped off shorting the market at the wrong time so i don't think i could do it in in the level of size that i needed to be even this year before i got my last round of shorting going which is like shorting from 4600 covering back around 4100 obviously covering in between many many many times but that was like the overall range that was able to be played s p from 4 600 to 4 100.
i didn't do that with enough size i probably should have picked a nasdaq index rather than the s p index i just have a slightly harder time reading the intraday scout tape in regards to scalping nasdaq futures compared to s p futures which is why i chose them yeah the overall the overall approach did not really work out for me i've now experienced the largest single most devastating loss i've ever had now normally i would say definitely dollar cost average if you know an investment is good but you also have to take it from my perspective i saw alex carp on right after earnings where he was talking to someone from cnbc and he sounded so out of it he sounded more like a philosopher than he did like someone who was business minded like he was all his head was all in theory land like talking about this and that completely unrelated to palantir stock mr carp you're bleeding shareholder money i mean try to make something out of this you know try to try to sell pallentier it almost seemed like he was so arrogant and narcissistic that he did not it was almost as if he didn't care what wall street thought about palantir because pollen tier is so big it doesn't need wall street and that's not correct if you want to build anything in life you need money whether you're an individual person or you're a business like palantir so if he can gain wall street support um he will have easy access to money for the rest of his life they'll give him good ratings on his bonds they might start buying up his stock so when he goes to sell stock to finance more palantir products um you know there's more to finance i was really shaken um by alex carp's interview and i wasn't even shaken until a couple days later the stock price of volunteer dropped to about and 81 cents i bought more shares around seven and i sold them very the very next day into a very large rally around eight dollars and thirty cents so i am deciding temporarily although i think palantir should still be a good investment on numbers you don't know if they're going to be able to execute especially when alex carp does an interview where it you know i never did shrooms before but i'm pretty sure i would sound like that if i was on shrooms like i'm talking to someone about like just like theory and philosophy rather than volunteer like i'm pretty sure that's how i would sound like if i was on shrooms so the good news for me though is what am i doing now is there's a lot of stocks that have fallen palantir is one of the socks that have fallen a lot i started buying other things for the first time in a very long time because i have this huge cash pile i now need to store uh well i now need to um figure out if they're good investments for so i am going very slow with this because i don't think this crash is done started dollar cost averaging into square there's a bunch of different names square roku netflix um facebook a lot of things have come down there's a lot of opportunity now where i didn't see anything a few months back uh in doing that yes i'm not dollar cost averaging into pounds here until this idiot okay i didn't call alex carp an idiot until he realizes he needs wall street's help i don't like wall street either but those people will help you finance your future projects and your it's and it's very beneficial to get on their good side uh for the long-term success of volunteer it almost feels like he's just totally disrespecting wall street yeah i'm i started dollar cost averaging into names that i feel like are overly beaten up i might do another video on that this is not the video for that um but that's how i'm playing it at one point i thought palantir was the risk reward ratio was worth it i definitely think it's worth it at this price i just have too much exposure and i want to spread out my new money onto other things that have fallen because i see other opportunities now in the market whereas a few months ago i did not anyway if you're experiencing a lot of losses in this stock market don't freak out um keep your head calm get off them if you're on margin right now get off of it i think we can end up going lower but this is not the video for that this is a video about how you handle a million dollar loss grateful gracefully or in a lot of people's cases if you lose a very very large chunk of money unexpectedly you got to handle that gracefully i still have both of my arms i got both of my legs i got my eyesight i have some of my hair um i cover the rest of this with this nice cap till next time once again as always don't go broke kathy wood had announced that she was buying a lot of pounds here which is probably the first sign that i should have gotten the [ __ ] out of volunteer stock
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