저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
요약 보기
저유가는 겉보기엔 좋지만 석유산업 침체로 이어져 경기침체·붕괴를 부를 수 있다는 주장. 저유가의 경제 영향: 미국 GDP에서 석유산업 비중이 커져 유가 하락이 생산·투자·고용 감소로 이어지고, 소비자 절약 효과(약 1400억 달러)는 석유 부문 손실과 비슷해 상쇄된다는 EIA 연구 인용. 소비 측면: 저소득층 고부채와 주택담보대출 제한, 임금 둔화, 고령화로 저유가 효과(절약분 소비 진작)가 제한적이라는 설명. 주당 15달러 절약은 체감 효과가 작다고 봄. 유가 전망: 과거 2016년 기사 인용. 채굴 손익분기 약 40달러, 나스닥 기준 유가 43달러로 위험 구간 근접. BofA는 30달러까지 하락 가능성 제시. 셰일 반등에는 48달러 필요하다는 분석 소개. 경고 신호: 에너지 정크본드 붕괴가 월가 붕괴의 선행지표가 될 수 있다는 주장. 2008년 하반기 유가 급락이 금융위기에 선행했던 사례 언급. 미국 경제 진단: 소비는 빚으로 지탱되며 실질 회복은 없다는 평가. 금리를 0 수준으로 유지해 부채 이자 상환이 가능했지만 금리 인상 시 버티기 어렵다는 주장. 연준이 약한 데이터를 무시하는 이유는 트럼프 임기 중 거품 붕괴를 피하려는 것이라고 주장. 베네수엘라 사례: 유가 붕괴가 베네수엘라 경제 붕괴를 초래했으며, 미국도 같은 상황에 직면할 수 있다고 경고. 달러 가치도 하락할 수 있다고 봄. 출연자 개인 조치: 뉴스레터 구독 유도 및 비상 대비(물 비축, 자급 기술) 권고. 특정 종목 언급 없음.
다듬은 글
if you've been to the gas station lately you probably just about turned cartwheels I know that my last Philip was almost 15 dollars less than it was a few months ago which goes along with a recent report that prices are the lowest they've been all year while this seems like a great thing I have some unfortunate news for you cheap gas prices can actually be a bad economic sign it boils down to a few things how this affects the oil industry how great a part of the GDP that the oil industry is how this affects the market while these plummeting prices are awesome today they could be the precursor to an oil industry crash in turn this could lead to an economic collapse like the one in Venezuela here's what the economic experts say about cheap gas vianora an economist with the US Energy Information Administration did some research that says plummeting gas prices aren't good for everyone the story is essentially about consumption which accounts for around 70% of inflation adjusted u.s.
GDP consumers have greater disposable income and increase expenditures on non fuel goods and services these Rises filter through to investment and employment and are counterbalanced somewhat by higher imports the re-emergence of the US as a major oil producer has complicated this narrative lower prices have a negative effect on production investment and employment in oil and gas extraction and related sectors the question is about the balance between these forces holding everything else constant do the Falls and production investment dent or even reverse gains and consumption I will argue in this paper that it is possible the reasons are unsurprising oil production is a much larger part of the US economy than in the past and high debt levels especially for low-income families have lowered consumer spending in response to cheaper gasoline prices access to credit particularly home equity loans has also slowed consumption growth as has slowed wage growth and an aging population so basically there are two reasons why cheap gas prices may not be so good for Americans the oil sector is a much larger part of our GDP than it was before this means the decreased price affects everyone whose livelihood is related to that industry from the paper cited above one the benefits to consumers could be around one hundred forty billion dollars from gasoline savings but the losses on the other side due to lower production less investment less build-out of infrastructure could be around that amount so we're kind of at a Washington to people who are really broke and there are a lot of those people will not realize enough savings to go out and bolster the economy with all of their newfound money $15 a week I'm projecting this based on what I saved isn't going to make a huge difference to people who are really struggling in a way that will be greatly beneficial to the wider economy an article last year from Bloomberg also paints a pessimistic picture about low oil prices James Hamilton my favorite economist to read on energy has argued that the declining price of oil traces back to three factors surging US oil production the return of Libyan production to normal levels and a slowdown in the global economy Texas North Dakota and other places in the US will suffer as oil prices decline in some of the high pay jobs in oil production go away worldwide lower energy prices are good for most countries but they are bad for many places including some very unstable regimes Russia will be badly hurt if this continues so will Iran and Iraq Venezuela is already dancing on the brink of disaster note remember this article is from 2016 and Venezuela has fallen right over that brink and its production capability has been seriously degraded by Chavez mow cheap oil seems likely to tip the country over into the abyss and meanwhile in the oil industry from what I've read the magic number is $40 per barrel when prices drop below that oil rigs are actually working at a loss today the Nasdaq has oil at $43 per barrel so we're hovering near that danger point Bank of America predicts that prices will plummet to $30 oil oil industry magazines have some pretty unsettling headlines as well is there hope for higher oil prices there are several red flags in the oil market right now the Eagle Ford rebound needs $48.00 oil oil industry to waste trillions as peak demand looms oil prices are on track for worst first half performance since 1997 look at this chart from Nasdaq as you can see the downward trend tends to go up for a day then plummet even further than a previous day one step forward two steps back last year we had a similar scare with dropping oil prices during which Peter Schiff provided an alarming reality check we're broke we're basically living off of debt we've had a huge transformation of the American economy look at all the Americans now on food stamps on disability on unemployment the whole economy has imploded the bottom hasn't dropped out yet because we're able to go deeper into debt but the collapse is coming what's happening is pretty much what we would anticipate I don't see from the data any real economic recovery certainly not in the United States we are spending more money but it's not because we're generating more wealth we are generating more debt we are using that borrowed money to consume and so temporarily it feels that we are wealthier because we get to spend all that money but we have to come to terms with paying the bill the bills are going to come due right now interest rates are being kept at zero which makes it possible to service the debt even though it's impossible to repay it at least we can service it but once interest rates go up then we can't even service it let alone repay it and then the party is going to come to an end at the time michael schneider of the economic collapse blog wrote there has only been one other time in history when the price of oil has crashed by more than $40 in less than six months the last time this happened was during the second half of 2008 and the beginning of that oil price crash preceded the great financial collapse that happened later that year by several months so if you are looking for a canary in the coalmine keep your eye on the performance of energy junk bonds if they begin to collapse that is a sign that all hell is about to break loose on Wall Street it would be difficult to overstate the importance of the shale oil boom to the US economy thanks to this boom the United States has become the largest oil producer on the entire planet yes the US now actually produces more oil than either Saudi Arabia Russia this revolution has resulted in the creation of millions of jobs since the last recession and it has been one of the key factors that has kept the percentage of Americans that are employed fairly stable we never fully came back from last year's plummet and we've headed downhill again the chickens of our debt fueled lifestyles are coming home to roost here's what Schiff has to say it's interesting that during the entire term where Obama was president the federally only raised rates once I mean they raised them a second time but that's after the election since Trump was elected they've already had three rate hikes and they're planning on doing more but the low interest rates were part of the problem the Fed needs to raise interest rates but when they do that the economy is going to collapse the whole bubble the recovery was phony the reason the Fed is ignoring the weak data is that they're not afraid of collapsing the bubble on Trump's watch you need only to look at Venezuela to see what an oil crash can do to a country if you aren't signed up to my newsletter go here to deucey i'll be sending out an approximately 70 page analysis on the economic collapse of Venezuela free to all of my subscribers later this week when you look at it all laid out together it paints an alarming picture of what could be our future yes of course the socialist government there had a lot to do with their economic collapse but they are still one of the most resource rich countries in the world when the bottom dropped out of the oil industry their currency became all good worthless the value of the American dollar too will fall along with the price of oil due to the high percentage of the GDP that industry holds and look at them this could easily be America are you prepared for an economy like that one build your stockpile here's how to do it even if your budget is tight have a water plan here's everything I know about water learn self-reliant skills you will refer to this book again and again get prepped this is your guideline I know that I sound like a blogger part of the US economy even in the past and high debt levels especially for low-income families have lowered consumer spending in response to cheaper gasoline prices access to credit particularly home equity loans has also slowed consumption growth as has slowed wage growth and an aging population so basically there are two reasons why cheap gas prices may not be so good for Americans the oil sector is a much larger part of our GDP than it was before this means the decreased price affects everyone whose livelihood is related to that industry from the paper Cyrus's these rises filter through to investment and employment and are counterbalanced somewhat by higher imports the re-emergence of the US as a major oil producer has complicated this narrative lower prices have a negative effect on production investment and employment in oil and gas extraction and related sectors the question is about the balance between these forces holding everything else constant do the Falls and production investment dent or even reverse gains and consumption I will argue in this paper that it is possible the reasons are unsurprising oil production is a much less if you've been to the gas station lately you probably just about turned cartwheels I know that my last Philip was almost 15 dollars less than it was a few months ago which goes along with a recent report that prices are the lowest they've been all year while this seems like a great thing I have some unfortunate news for you cheap gas prices can actually be a bad economic sign it boils down to a few things how this affects the oil industry how great a part of the GDP that the oil industry is how this affects the market while these plummeting prices are awesome today they could be the precursor to an oil industry crash in turn this could lead to an economic collapse like the one in Venezuela here's what the economic experts say about cheap gas vianora an economist with the US Energy Information Administration did some research that says plummeting gas prices aren't good for everyone the story is essentially about consumption which accounts for around 70 percent of inflation adjusted u.s.
GDP consumers have greater disposable income and increase expenditures on non fuel goods inserted above one the benefits to consumers could be around 140 billion dollars from gasoline savings the losses on the other side due to lower production less investment less build-out of infrastructure could be around that amount so we're kind of at a Washington to people who are really broke and there are a lot of those people will not realize enough savings to go out and bolster the economy with all of their newfound money $15 a week I'm projecting this based on what I saved isn't going to make a huge difference to people who are really struggling in a way that will be
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