저자: Kevin · 외국인
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2022년 11월 CPI 이후 PPI가 예상보다 낮게 나와 인플레 둔화 신호로 해석. 연준 금리 전망(터미널 4~5%)과 시장 기대 변화를 강조하며 월마트 거래 증가·홈디포 둔화 등 실적을 점검. 헤지펀드의 테슬라 지분 축소 속에서도 테슬라 반등 가능성을 85%로 제시하고, 사모교도소(GEO, CXW) 베팅 등 버핏·버리 포지션을 언급. 강의 홍보가 다수 포함됨.
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Michael burry has made a massive shift Warren Buffett has added a brand new position one that we've analyzed in our course member live stream uh just two weeks ago and boy do I have some opinions on this position Federal Reserve expectations earnings from Walmart Home Depot and monday.com are things we've got to talk about and an in crazy A crazy crazy crazy inflationary shocker that just came out this morning let's talk about all of this as well as a quick little update on scumbags Sam bankman freed folks remember 60 off in December and they're going to be amazing for everything the real estate course stocks course Property Management course even the YouTube course we'll have new lectures coming out in December with all of the elite Hustler lectures with no monthly fee now I listen to your advice no monthly fee for the elite Hustler scores coming out on Black Friday so use that 60 off Black Friday coupon code so what are the updates same bankman freed big scumbag I think this guy deserves to sit next to Bernie Madoff I am so terribly sorry I was ever associated with this guy I failed and I effed up and I feel like crap daily about this okay but at least there are alcohol passes on here there's no driving so Sam bankman freed this guy is such a trickster that he is now screwing with the bots on Twitter here's how this works if you delete a tweet on Twitter there are Bots that will post a screenshot of what you deleted but not if you if your Tweet count doesn't change and you trick the bots so what's Sam Beekman free doing he's posting tweets one letter at a time at the same time as these deleting old tweets and burying them but he's been exposed already for doing this by the smart and quite critical people on Twitter but it's quite interesting and it just shows you how Shady this guy is stagflation 92 and these numbers might change after today's numbers after today's inflationary numbers but stagflation estimates are that 92 two percent of all investors right now believe that we have a very real risk of stagflation what does that mean well dang it means that a lot of people are pricing in paying for markets Federal Reserve pricing is still sitting at an expectation that the FED will hike to five percent and will likely hold at five percent all year long most major banks are sitting between a uh four to five percent terminal rate expectation with Wells Fargo Goldman Sachs and Bloomberg coming in between five and five and a quarter percent JPMorgan 475 Morgan Stanley four five Barclays four five and Deutsche Bank four percent now remember if those numbers those estimates get moved down markets go up if those estimates move up markets move down it's very simple in case you're wondering why the S P 500 moves everything has to do with expectatio Warren Buffett and Michael burry's crazy shift I want to touch on some earnings really quick Walmart finally only grew inventories at 12 percent they're finally getting a handle on inventories transactions up remember we don't look at sales anymore sales is a stupid number because when they're like oh sales are up eight percent we're like Oh yeah duh inflation's up eight percent so your real growth is zero so uh transactions actually up at Walmart especially the grocery division so that that's a two two point one percent excuse me increase here their ad business up thirty percent so actually growing decently on their ad business which I don't actually know that much about their ad business which is kind of fascinating because it is a newer aspect to their business but most advertising businesses are actually suffering and declining right now on growth although trade desk actually surprised and did pretty dang decently relative to how others are doing trade desk and their CEO which is by the way located in my hometown Ventura California they actually argue that during these recessionary times they think they'll be able to take more market share than some of the more traditional forms of advertising uh like Google or Facebook I don't know if that's true but that's what they argue so a lot more people apparently going to Walmart and when you get those middle to Upper end consumers shifting down to Walmart they can oftentimes be a little sticky in in staying with Walmart as far as Home Depot Home Depot did not fare as well Home Depot saw transactions that decline quarter over quarter and gave a little bit of a weaker guide there is a little bit of a sign that we're still seeing people spend at Home Depot because as they wrap up projects I'm really wishing I can get some details on how many people are spending or how much money is being spent on things like moldings and paint which are considered finished jobs in construction compared to two by fours which are generally your raw material sort of beginning of projects uh tasks should I say or purchases I'd love to get some detail on that but the earnings calls going on right now so we don't have that yet but pay attention to that we are seeing lower guide though and inventory to sales spreads and narrowing suggesting slower or slipping orders and weaker demand in the future monday.com saw an inflection point in their customer Resource Management sales in September and October and mentioned that what used to just be European stress is now starting to become Global stress we're seeing this from a lot of companies a lot of companies are telling us that oh yeah all of a sudden in September and October we started hating a wall this doesn't really surprise me because we're finally actually seeing the impact of the federal reserve's tightening and it really aligns with the layoffs we're seeing especially the corporate layoffs at Amazon remember these are not seasonal layoffs we're actually seeing programmer layoffs corporate layoffs of the Alexa divisions getting hit hard I think they might actually end up closing that entire division down apparently just not profitable to do a voice yet sorry garyvee Federal Reserve we already talked about Federal Reserve expectations hedge funds okay we have a lot of hedge funds actually cutting Tesla D1 cut at stake by 48 Catal cut by 16 and a 48 cut is pretty large uh one of the things to know is that Tesla has also slashed its orders uh Elite its order lead times to just one week now I think the mainstream media is going to jump on this and go oh my gosh this is bad Tesla Lead times only one week look Tesla demand plummeting I actually think the opposite is going to happen of course I'm a Tesla bull so take what I say with a grain of salt I always like to be aware of my biases uh and and of course the biggest bias that I have is uh suggesting that you should check out those courses because nobody nobody works harder than I do and nobody is going to provide you more value in those courses if you don't see something that you expect to be in those courses you make sure you write me a message in Discord you tag me and that lecture will be there by the end of the year that's just what I'm doing I'm gonna keep making videos because I love y'all and if it ain't there you tag me in Discord I'm gonna go through it all by the end of this year and we're gonna have more lectures we're using that Blackboard until that Blackboard breaks but anyway I think the mainstream media is going to go oh this is bad you know demand down I actually think it's going to be free advertising because everybody's gonna go what I only have to wait a week to get a Tesla this is great news now obviously there's a risk that demand does collapse if demand collapses Tesla stock will collapse sorry and sorry me if demand does not collapse which I think a demand collapsing is like a 15 risk if demand does not collapse uh then I think Tesla surges especially once the Twitter drama settles down I think there's an 85 chance of that okay now let's talk about Warren buff and Michael burry Michael burry out of shorts he's going heavy on private prisons increasing his bets on the Geo Group uh core Civic both private prisons and a curate retail private prison he's also ditched Facebook and Google interesting that he ditched Google I mean Facebook I don't blame him for I think that's a stupid bet on the metaverse but anyway uh okay my take on private prisons look I remember debating private prisons back when I was in high school which uh you know was only a couple years ago uh just kidding but I used to debate private prisons in speech and debate uh in student Congress and and listen the amount of debate that has gone into private prisons uh will probably never end uh I think our political environment is such that we can make no radical changes and I am a highly uh let me put it this way I'm a dis I'm in disbelief that our government will ever actually fully move over to private prisons but then again hey there are private prisons so maybe these companies can make really good money uh Without Really government expansion I just see it as a little bit of kind of like a marijuana play where you're relying on the government and anytime you're relying on the government you're relying on political chance and and dude political chance I don't know but we do think that Trump will announce his uh president uh campaign presidential campaign tonight hedge funds cut Amazon uh actually in a mixed way nine million shares bought on net 121 funds increase their positions 100 decrease their positions uh Princeton completely sold out of lithium America has cut their entire stake you know I ran the numbers because I've seen lithium prices run up a lot I think the amount of lithium that goes into a Tesla battery for a car is only like four or five hundred bucks which is kind of interesting because we've seen lithium prices Skyrocket over the past few months and I'm like oh man that's going to squeeze margins for Tesla but then I'm like ah but if prices go up 20 for lithium it really only costs maybe 80 bucks more for a battery now I mean that's still something but uh it's it's not as big of a component as I thought it was for uh Tesla which is good news there Berkshire Hathaway Warren Buffett adds a bit more Chevron up to stake 23 on Occidental and decreased his Activision bet by 12 remember his Activision bet is a bet that Activision will be acquired I think it's for like in the 90 or some something like that it's an Arbitrage bat Viking adds to Salesforce and Michael burry I think I already mentioned has no shorts that sounds weird anyway uh okay now now now now we got to talk about the inflationary numbers okay so we had really good CPI numbers right so what came after these really good CPI numbers well today producer price number so CPI is from the consumer's perspective producer is from the seller's perspective okay so there's a buyer like you and me going to buy a PC uh at let's say Walmart or Best Buy actually I'm not sure why you would buy a PC there versus just building your own or buying it online but definitely not well I'm not going to say anything anymore Kevin Kevin with the tangents uh the seller's perspective would be like Walmart's perspective how much is it costing them to go buy that PC to put on the shelf right okay expectation was core month over month point three percent we got zero baby flat let's go uh we were expecting headline point four percent which would be 4.8 annualized we got 0.2 that's 2.4 percent annualized let's go very very good and headline year over year expecting 8.3 and we got eight both really really good numbers manufacturing survey came in much higher than expected we were expecting negative six percent for manufacturing which is a sort of a recessionary indicator we got 4.5 percent with uh prices little changed and the first folks for PPI the first Services decline uh in a producer price inflation readings with a reading of 0.1 percent negative First declines since November of 2020.
so obviously markets are rallying uh hard on this yields for treasuries are plummeting this is this is phenomenal news this is great news uh very very bullish obviously for cyclicals growth uh and uh let's see if we can sustain it between now through December but this is a this is a second data point now that's really really good and if this holds up in December we're going back to the Moon baby get that 60 off link down below folks I'm My Own sponsor I love being my own sponsor and talk Sam bankman freed see ya bye
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