저자: DanIves · 외국인
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연초 강세는 긍정적이나 1분기 말 이후 베어마켓 같은 조정 가능성 언급. 관세 무효화 시 환급 이슈로 재관세·상한 효과 예상, 연준 완화 기조와 QT 종료가 주식 우호 요인. S&P 500 밸류에이션(22배)은 과도하지 않다고 봤고 2026년 실적 질 개선 기대. 금융·기술 재평가와 AI 수혜 대형주(브로드컴, 엔비디아) 선호, 인텔은 투기적 요소 언급. 방어적 투자보다 에너지·소재 등 순환매 가능성 제시.
다듬은 글
That's you know, I didn't have any expectations, but it's always a good sign to be strong out of the gate as you know, because the what markets do in the first week or so give us a hint for how markets are shaping up for the year. Um our base case was a rally maybe to start the year and then a big correction and then a rally again.
So big correction if not a bear market. I think it yeah. You those are your words not mine. Yeah, I think I think there'll be a point this year where it's going to feel like a bear market. Yeah. What what about the way that the the market looks as the year has begun? The importance of early market strength.
That's why I didn't have any expectations, but it's always a good idea to start strong because the market's performance over the first week or so gives us an idea of how the markets will develop during the year. Our base scenario was a rise possibly beginning the year followed by a significant drop and then another rally, a significant correction or naked market.
Those I believe are your concerns rather than mine. Yes, I believe there will be a time this year when the market will seem empty. Yes, what about the state of the market at the start of the year? What are you producing? What are your thoughts about it? We have some breadth, so I think that's positive.
Materials and energy are going well. The MAG 7's broad market rise. Tech's role is somewhat catching up and cryptocurrency is performing well, but small caps, financials and health care are all doing well. It's a rather wide market after all. I almost like saying everything. It's not as if technology is failing.
Some of these other initiatives are simply overshadowing it. The equal weight the S&P ETF has reached a new all-time high. That sums up everything that has motivated this market. Yes, it is correct. I believe that having good breadth is always a good sign for investors and institutional investors. Is it really sustainable?
Will it continue to look like this for a short time? I do believe that stocks should benefit from a few different types of macro tailwinds. One is that despite the possibility of a tariff reversal, I do believe that the Fed's tailwinds and macroeconomic clarity are greater since generally speaking tariffs aren't rising.
They might have a flatter bottom. Second, because the Fed is leaning dovish, it is actually becoming a tailwind. Their attention is on the employment market. QT has ended. A new Fed is on the way. Therefore, I believe that all of these are in some ways a put for the equity market and that they are no longer battling inflation.
What would happen if the tariffs were overturned by Scotland? Is the market going to benefit or suffer from that? It's a confusing thing. The White House will undoubtedly try to reinstate the tariffs, but overall, I believe it means that we put a ceiling on the tariffs. So they won't be higher, but there's a chance they'll be lower.
It will depend on how they word their decision because you know there may be refunds involved in claims. Is a net benefit. I mean, you might have used the word confusion knowing I was going to use you. I intended to use a bit of chaos. I mean, you might be wondering what the bond market might do in the immediate aftermath of that and trying to determine whether you have to start refunding people.
We may receive this as early as the end of the week. So there are several factors to take into account. Yes, it is correct. Certain investment businesses have already begun purchasing refund claims. As you are aware, for 30 cents on the dollar, they're willing to purchase these claims from businesses.
Therefore, some of these returns are being priced in by the economy. Therefore, the valuation of the valuations, earnings and market multiples market was one of the questions that remained after 2025. What amount should you be prepared to spend in exchange for the anticipated earnings? We were there some that claimed to be wealthy 22 times.
According to a note released by Barclays today, they appear to be realistic. According to them, 22 times is by no means inexpensive in our opinion. As long as EPS growth stays healthy, present levels have not historically hampered returns. Although we believe that S&P projections are excessively optimistic, we still anticipate double-digit earnings growth for the S&P 500 this year.
Do you have any concerns about how strong earnings will be? S&P earnings are a mix of all 500 companies as you are aware, but I believe that in 2026, earnings quality will be stronger due to rising revenue growth and a higher rate of earnings growth. Therefore, you have both margin expansion and top-line improvement.
That ought to justify multiples being higher. How do you feel about the way banks have entered the market? They have for instance, Goldman Sachs, where it's almost incredible that after three and a half trading days, this item has put in about 9%. Yes, already. How do you interpret that? As you are aware, one of our recurring themes is that we believe financials will be valued more similarly to tech equities in the next years due to their shown ability to generate profits across the cycle.
They profit greatly from AI, particularly the tech four ones, and their margins are growing as a result of reduced rates. In my opinion, tech is now undervalued, which is why they continue outperform in terms of earnings growth. Since you mentioned technology and it receives a lot of attention, what about it?
What are your current feelings regarding that? I believe that the reason you continue to invest in tech is the earnings growth. These are businesses with excellent market positions and high-quality earnings. We don't necessarily argue that the multiples should increase, though. Thus, I believe that flat mar flat multiples and earnings growth indicate that they can still perform rather well.
Quite well. However, would you overweight the group? I mean, you still believe that their earnings growth will be disproportionate to everything else, which is probably the case, don't you? Considering what is occurring as a result of AI, it is practically required. That speaks to the ongoing outperformance, doesn't it?
I wholeheartedly concur since let's say the S&P's earnings growth is 16. To underperform the S&P, you would need a significant amount of PE compression if something was expanding by 25 or 40%. I still enjoy technology, but I do believe that industries like energy and basic materials, which have performed horribly over the past five years, can surpass technology.
What would you avoid doing? Well, I don't think it's appropriate to be defensive this year. Naturally, Washington then selects winners and losers as you are aware. It was detrimental to health care and consultancy industries last year. It seems like it might be detrimental to institutional buyers of housing.
Therefore, I believe you need to be cautious about who Washington considers to be winners and losers. We are in fact quite optimistic. We have a lot of optimism. In the near future, you're witnessing a squeeze on some memory stocks and semi cap equipment, a rush to purchase, and I do believe that our large cap firms like Broadcom and Nvidia will continue to do very well.
Those are still the top choices, but with Tom Lee's optimistic prognosis for Nvidia, some of the more erratic names like Intel and Marvell might catch up. Well, last year was a good year for Intel. That I believe goes on. However, we are generally quite optimistic. You had a previous visitor who discussed our position in the cycle.
We're still early, I suppose. Everyone wants to draw comparisons to the internet. Huh? This item will find its own way, but in our judgment, it should be larger than many of the critics believe. Do you believe Intel has a role in this? You did mention last year's positive vibes. After all, the administration raised a significant amount of money.
They had many prominent and influential supporters. But what about the core business? Yes, in comparison to other stocks where Intel is a little more of a speculative name and isn't trading as much on earnings. Nvidia may be a little bit safer since in our perspective, Nvidia has all the supply they need to demolish statistics.
In my opinion, what's happening there is that Nvidia is an excellent shareholder. They will assist them. They will receive assistance from the Trump administration and I believe that as 26 goes on, we'll hear more positive news regarding their hopes for the foundry in the future. They have excellent packaging assets that are not given enough credit.
After that, I believe they have a procedure in 28 and 29 known as 14A. It's a node in their foundry and I believe that more people including Apple and Nvidia are looking more closely at it, which raises the book value for a company like that.
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