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here's the closing bell for today and there you have it your closing bell there for Monday let's take a look at how the major indices ended all three ending in positive territory but now have more than 400 points that are up one and a third of a percent you have the S P 500 up about a percent as well about 36 points and the tech heavy NASDAQ up about 90 points as well so green across the board but let's take a closer look at the broader markets with our markets panel let's bring in Bryce Doty sit fixed income senior portfolio manager and Senior vice president and Davis rozeski sound Planning Group CEO good to see you both so obviously we're just heading in into the midterms here a little bit of frothiness but a positive day so far David what do you think the markets are digesting right now uh well great to be with you and uh you know the markets today are are getting this wonderful bull what I'm calling a bull bounce or a bear bounce and uh you know I think it's in anticipation of uh tomorrow obviously uh if we understand history the market likes the idea of getting into more of a gridlock as opposed to just having a unanimous Senate and House and president and so you know based on uh the you know the election uh uh indicators it seems like there's going to be some adjustment there and so uh the market I believe is responding positively to that um I don't believe that they're responding positively to Powell uh last week you know who's in a rock in a hard place position here uh but you know we're we're looking like uh there are some challenges here in the future and uh and that there's potentially going to be some pivot uh but right now he's made it very clear that we're we're not going to be doing that so what I'm seeing here in the short term at least is a nice run uh leading into this midterm election and it seemed seems like it it can continue here for at least a short midterm um until we we kind of start facing some of these challenges here that 2023 is going to bring with deficit ceiling conversations etc etc Bryce what do you think about now between now and year end because seasonally this is normally a strong period here for the markets Morgan Stanley Michael Wilson was saying that U.S midterms are set to fuel a stock rally do you agree well typically there is a relief rally after midterms I mean I don't know about you but I'm so tired of negative political ads you know from all sides I think it'll just be a nice relief that did not have to listen to it anymore and I think that's half the reason for there there's being a a bounce after a midterm election or any election for that matter and uh I I agree that gridlock is good you know there's been so much change that that occurs when uh one party is 100 in charge it's it's hard for investors to really know where where things are at because the everything just keeps moving all the time I also think that uh interest rates might Peak between now and the end of the year so I'm I'm not as uh bullish on stocks for next year but I think bonds are really looking good here because the FED at three and three quarters to four percent range on their fed funds rate they're a lot closer to the end of their their rate hiking period than uh than there they were when they began obviously and the thing to keep in mind is that they always overdo it so on that last breed increase the yields usually go down in the bond market so you want to prepare for that a day sometime between now and year end I think is a good time to uh to be buying bonds and David we know that Goldman Sachs caught expectations for s p earnings growth for next year and the following year as well talking about what they saw as a greater contraction in terms of margins in third quarter earnings what would you how would you characterize the earnings season right now well earnings are difficult to estimate when times are normal right and and today we have so many different Crosswinds that are taking place right now that I think golden and Saxon you know Jamie dimon who says that you know we've got a second half of a hurricane ahead of us um you know that they probably are right on par uh given the fact that you know we have these challenges and let's just even say housing let's say uh metabolizing the debt uh here in a higher interest rate environment you know one of the concerns I have and not just saying you know Bonds in general that are good investment options I'm actually very concerned about high yield bonds uh given the fact that they were you know having such you know low rate environment where they could borrow even though they were you know quote unquote the junk uh version of the bonds and uh what's going to take place now when they have to do so at a higher rate when supply chain issues are still challenged out there and um you know so there's some big things to to be paying attention to uh as as we're looking at this but if we do see those rates rise further it would be bad for bonds if they start going down and we hit that pivot point that the other guesses noting here you know that would be wonderful and ultimately that would be the place and time that we would begin to say hey this is where we really want to start allocating back into the market utilizing some of the cash that we've been sitting outside with Bryce I'm going to give you a chance to respond to what we just heard from David so you say you like bonds what specifically do you like at this point and also just bringing up what you said just a moment ago that usually the FED does overdo it have they already gone too far you know they probably have especially in the housing as as we just indicated with mortgage rates up over seven percent uh the typical mortgage payment on a median home priced home has almost double it's gone up by a thousand a month so those prices are going to start collapsing so clearly in the housing area they've they've really overdone it and that's going to be very very painful our our sweet spot right now is uh I mean frankly it's our it's our own fund we have an ETF Vault with a year and a half duration we're buying bonds at five and a quarter to five and a half percent yield and they're all high quality so uh we agreed to kind of you know the high yield isn't worth it right now there probably won't be a massive uh default wave but but the yields already reflect that so excuse me we like a year and a half duration five plus percent yield it's a good place to hang out right now and there's not a lot of uh good options David what do you like in today's market as far as the market goes today I've got about 30 different portfolios so we've got a mixed you know on on kind of all strategies um you know regarding you know where some safer places might be to go it's a challenge today because you know the consumer there's two types of consumers there's one that wants to avoid a big volatile downturn and there's the other that's trying to fight Elation and so you know if you try to fight inflation you got to go risk on right now but you've got to be willing to accept that downside many Boomers today which is who my team works with uh are are not uh going to be able to you know recover from a massive downturn given just the amount of time that they have left so the alternative side is that they go more conservative and so they can load up on bonds I'm just going to say really be very cautious about that because there are some alternative options you know uh and that would be even one is uh unique uniquely is a fixed indexed annuity that's geared towards growth I've personally never seen a better time uh to be able to get you know real and meaningful upsides if the market does work out you participate but more importantly none of the down if if things do continue to have challenges with them so that's that's a few options I think that uh we're obviously seeing uh energy uh has has done well I'm I'm concerned that if we have just even one challenge with refiner or you know we get a very cold winter uh that we're going to see even more of a of a crisis here or Supply challenge which is what this uh is ultimately all about is Supply challenges not demand challenges and uh and that would cause you know the price to go up again and so you know there's there's a number of of strategies and ways to be looking at this but you know be cautiously optimistic and specifically for those are entering or nearing retirement I would say you know it's probably not worth it to be all in uh right now giving inverted yield curves and you know just all the different Crosswinds that uh that we're seeing right now still certainly sounds like you're a bit cautious all right David joseski always great to have you Bryce Doty thanks so much for joining us this afternoon
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