저자: 미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 영상은 특정 투자자(Howard Marks 추정 'Hardmix')의 미국 주식 포트폴리오를 웹사이트에서 열람하는 방법과 기업 분석 접근법을 안내하며, 종목 추천이나 가격 방향 예측은 포함하지 않는다. 포트폴리오 구성: 펀드 운용 규모는 약 74억 달러로 소개된다. 최대 비중 종목은 약 8%이며 분산도가 과도하지 않다고 언급된다. 두 번째 비중 종목은 약 7.87%로 소개된다. 언급 종목: 에너지 기업 Vista Energy(텍사스 중심 미국 에너지 기업)와 천연가스 생산 기업 Range 계열 종목이 언급된다. Vale(브라질 광산), Itaú(브라질 은행)도 포트폴리오 편입 종목으로 소개된다. 해운 기업(컨테이너선 128척 보유 추정)도 등장한다. 기업 분석 사례: 천연가스 기업의 2021년 잉여현금흐름(FCF) 추정치, 주주환원 계획(FCF의 약 50% 환원 예정), 2035년 온실가스 배출 제로 목표, 순부채/EBITDA 1배 이하 유지 등 기업 발표 자료의 수치가 소개된다. 리스크 및 조건: 천연가스는 원자재라 가격 결정력이 없으며, 향후 잉여현금흐름 예측은 불가능하다고 강조된다. 생산원가(lifting cost)와 민감도 분석이 중요하다고 언급된다. 출연자 전망: 특정 가격 방향에 대한 예측 발언은 없고, 투자 참고용 포트폴리오 탐색 방법론 제시에 그친다. 참고: 대상 자산 목록에 해당하는 국내외 주요 종목(삼성전자, 엔비디아, 비트코인 등)에 대한 방향성 발언은 확인되지 않는다.
다듬은 글
Hey everyone, welcome to another video! Today, we're going to look at the portfolio of the big winner. We'll look at the positions of these companies in the United States and see which companies this big investor has bought. Today, we're going to look at Hardmix's portfolio. Hardmix is a big investor known for investing in, well, debt securities of companies going through a difficult time.
But Max, through his management analysis, separates the wheat from the chaff and takes the debt securities of companies that are trading at a very low price relative to their value. The asset management firm Max works for, and has for years, also has an equity portfolio. We're going to take a look at Crypton's equity portfolio.
So, guys, take a look here at the website you'll enter, Waze, and you can see the portfolio. We'll go here, which is captioned here, holdings. Okay, here we're looking at the companies that the fund has bought. We can see the fund has seven billion and four hundred million dollars under management. The first company here...
So, let's say that this company is green, then this company here is a natural gas company, this small one, it represents eight percent of the portfolio. Starbucks wants Scorpion, so let's take a look at them. This bouquet has what? 7.87 percent of the portfolio. And here is Vista Energy Corp., so Vista is an energy company in the United States, mainly in the Texas region.
So let's look here, very interesting, right? So they have these assets, we'll go here to this percentage of the portfolio. This little colony here is the percentage of the portfolio, something that is interesting. We can even mention Vale here, take a look, before that there's Vale, there's Itaú, and it has 1.65 percent of the portfolio.
Itaú, which opens here in the photo, the oil and gas company, a petroleum and natural gas producer in the United States, what are some things, right? The market value of the company is six million dollars. It's an interesting way for us to look for companies, you're not going to buy companies simply because they're in your portfolio, but it's an interesting way to look for companies.
You can study this Starbucks, for example. Let's go into the R&D of this Philips Energy Corp., its position here. So, nowadays we know that natural gas is very expensive in the United States, reaching quite high levels. Let's see, we can look at the company's R&D here. So you 'll have the company's presentations here.
You can look at the front-line information. So, I think the R&D information... if you want to see the annual report, you can go to this Philips here, you have to go to their annual report. But to see the company's quarterly reports, you can find them here. The reports are behind the company, which are the 10 kJs, right?
Thank you, they are the semi-annual reports. So it's very easy to study, isn't it? It's the portfolio of some big winner. You can go to the R&D, take a look at the company. So, in the R&D, we see that it doesn't have that many positions, right? The largest position is eight percent of the portfolio, right?
It's not that diversified, but it 's also not that concentrated. Let's take a look at the presentation of, for example, the CHK in this part, this small energy... so here The presentation is in English, right? But nowadays, the biggest opposition to portfolio management is that we can see they are returning money to shareholders.
Look how interesting, I've already stirred things up, it already smells good, right? Because I think, as I said, this here means estimated free cash flow for 2021 of fifteen percent, that's what they're talking about here, two and a half percent. This is the dividend yield, they are burning. Okay, fifty percent of the total, fifty percent of the free cash flow in FCF (Cash Flow) quarterly starting in the first quarter of 2022.
So they are saying that here they should return to their list approximately half of the free cash flow generation starting in 2022. They are saying here that their reinvestment is disciplined at around sixty to seventy percent of adjusted EBITDA, which equates to approximately six billion in projected free cash flow over the next five years.
When the company Vale is valued today, let's take a look at this one, which today is worth 6.4 million dollars, and they are saying here that in the next five years they should generate around six million dollars. Dollars and free cash flow are interesting, people also saw that in this presentation from September 2021 they 're maintaining the strength of the balance sheet, the leverage is less than one in the long term, right, considering their leverage here, you see, the little elf would be net debt measured by adjusted EBITDA, so net debt and EBITDA, forget it, keep it below one.
So it already seems interesting, right? Of course, they're not just going to buy companies. Or because of this corporate presentation, several companies estimate six billion, 6.4 million dollars today, six million dollars of free cash flow in the next five years, a strength of free cash flow, right, which would be the free cash flow divided by the estimated market value in 2001 of fifteen percent.
They are returning, but they also have a plan to reach zero in GHG admissions by 2035, so we can take a look. So they have a diversified portfolio in several basins, right, the basins in the United States producing. The natural gas industry is projected, so the business growth here is interesting, folks.
Let's take a look. They have 225,000 acres here, and they produce 77 percent of their production, which is what is called natural gas, and 17 percent is oil, or in English, Unix networkware. That would be 6 percent of production. It's interesting that these are the Appalachian and Paraty regions. Exactly this one here, the Pa Lancha.
So, in the second quarter of 2020, their Beach company had only $429 million in free cash flow of $292 million. They have that Bella City Fair has how many grams on its balance sheet? $612 million. It seems interesting. The next company is worth studying, folks. Look, they're talking a little about the basins where they produce natural gas and oil.
Yes, they can also talk about how this company doesn't have natural gas; it's a commodity. Companies don't decide when they will sell it; it's natural gas, it doesn't have pricing power. So nowadays, I guarantee, I swear a lot, let the pandemic arrive. Around $1.60, if Ruby is around that price today, it should be around $16, so it's gone up a lot.
Anyway, there's no way around it, right? My name is [unclear - possibly 'a powerhouse'], it's something that anyone who already has to keep an eye on, right? It's impossible to predict when the free cash flow will be, for example, in the case they're talking about this projection, because you can't know what the price of natural gas will be in 3 years, right?
But the other thing you think about, right? So I remember if I were to study this company, what I would think about is: What is their lifting cost? I know what they rely on? What are their costs and expenses? What is the cost to make, right? For example, 1 million cubic feet of natural gas produced, that's not for them to be like their powdered milk.
If their price is two dollars, right? If the price is low, they'll make a loss, right? I spent above that, so you have to see what the sensitivity analysis is. It 's not with the cash flow, depending on the price of natural gas, it might be more interesting for another company in their portfolio, take a look.
This Starbucks wants Scorpions Idealica to touch, and these guys stock up on $2.4 million in the company. It doesn't enter into a relationship with its investors. It's one of the biggest freight companies here, it seems like ship improvement at the front with the ship. It has a fleet of 128 cargo ships.
They do cargo ship fronting, they have a broad sword, an average of 9.3 years in their portfolio, so the cars have 128 ships. So this theme of integrated operation management is a look here at their presentation, already saying that they have a strong balance sheet, that they have $280 million in cash, they have $1.6 billion in total debt.
This side here: In the last four years they acquired 58 ships in a container, are these only 58 ships? So if 58 ships are worth 1.3 billion, they issued shares to raise those 1.3 billion, and they issued shares at the price of the ship in these holidays, so they don't take them at a discount. Thank goodness, otherwise it would dilute the shareholder base, it doesn't need to be bad, okay, it seems interesting here.
Our idea isn't to analyze whether a company is cheap or not; it's simply to look at what's interesting. To look at companies' portfolios, as you saw, take another look here at their first two positions outside of Hotmarks. You can go to this website, webnode.com, put in the name of a company whose position you want to see, go to the presentations, go to investor relations.
I'm not here, I'm not giving you a recommendation. But that's one way, right? Many people ask me, "There are thousands of companies out there, right? How do you do something like that? How do you look for companies?" There's a way to look, you take big investors, right? That's a proven track record.
You go into their portfolios, take a look at the companies, and you start studying them. It's a good entry point. They'll only buy because the guy bought. Another interesting way is to go into the portfolio, look at the largest positions, the reports, the annual report, the quarterly report, look at the corporate presentations of the companies, and if you find something that really seems appetizing, like an investment opportunity, you can invest in their companies.
But of course, there are other ways to filter with... In a country, you have screeners, some screens with filters, right? You put muscles, for example, but one way is to look at the position of large investors. You go there, look here, I'm coming out with the gun, what are they buying? What hardware are they buying?
The bus, Charlie Ranger, Joe Ringles? It's a way for you to take a look, there are some ideas for you to study about companies. So, guys, this was the first video we made looking at investor portfolios. If you give the video a thumbs up, comment if you have any suggestions about our presentation, and subscribe to the channel, and until next time!
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