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hey everyone Kevin here I've been trying to figure out why it is that mr. money printer the dude who has the most powerful weapon in the world right now is freaking out as much as he is and why is he always up there on his podium going basically yo Congress get off your butt and give us some fiscal stimulus we can lend but we can't spend you can spend and you should spend you should give the people what they need stimulus to prevent permanent scars well today well over the last three hours what did i do well of course I drank coffee like I usually do and I went through this report actually three fed reports and I'm gonna share them with you I'm gonna give you the bottom lines on these because this is why the Fed is freaking out and I'll tell you each of these reports is like 50 to 80 pages long I'm just gonna give you some quick bottom lines here that's just three reports that the Fed is using to look at their data and these are scary imagine all the other stuff mr.
money printer has on his desk well probably a lot of money but he probably underneath all that money also has a lot of ugly reports and so here we go let's just start and show you some of these reports because they're scary and this is exactly why we need more stimulus first we already know that unemployment is expected to be as high as 25% that means one out of four people are out of work well we also know because the Fed told us yesterday that 40% of people making less than $40,000 are unemployed so people making less money are more likely to be unemployed well this report was released today and on page of four of the report we have something very interesting that according to their survey 91% of the people who lost a job in March of 2020 anticipated that they would return to work for the same employer or indicated that they had already returned to work well the big thing here is aligning this with reality first of all reality is we know that most people haven't returned to work and that is the small percentage so the vast majority of the people who are still unemployed actually think that they are going to go back to their job this report right here is a sir survey of people so this is what people think well unfortunately the National Bureau of Economic Research just released this paper that's called a relocation shock or a paper on relocation shocks and it has to do with people's employment and probably the biggest takeaway out of this 41 page document is under the abstract here which says that we find this 42% of recent layoffs will result in permanent job loss that means that 9 out of 10 people think they're going to go back to work but only 6 out of 10 people are actually going to go back to work this is really big because most people have the expectation that they're going to go back to work but the National Bureau of Economic Research which supplies information to the Fed as well says that even though most people who are temporarily laid off think they're going to go back to work 42 percent of those layoffs will become permanent not only that but the Bureau of Economic Research suggested that only three people will be rehired for every ten people who were laid off and maybe this is because businesses are going to hire people back in waves maybe businesses think hey you know what we're gonna have less demand let's hire less people hey you know what maybe now is the time to have more automation or try to make the existing employees we have work a little harder and maybe distribute all the tasks that we had many people four into a pool of well bless people now and try to build slowly again this is bad because it shows the Fed that people think they're going to get their jobs back when research and data is suggesting you're probably not gonna get your job back at least 42 percent of people who are laid off won't get their jobs back that's really bad but it's not only that because here's another paper that the Fed released during Jerome Powell's speech when he suggested that this pandemic could essentially destroy people's livelihoods and the businesses that they built he put a little report in the citation way at the bottom then nobody's referenced and take a look at what that report says it's kind of not so good this report titled recessions and the cost of job loss suggests that men lose an average of one point four years of earnings if they were laid off during a mass layoff event like what we're experiencing now but that's if the unemployment rate is below 6% if the unemployment rate exceeds 8% which it currently does then people lose about 2.8 years of earnings over the next 20 years they also go on to suggest that people who get laid off during these sort of mass layoffs times tend to in the future have less stability in earnings and employment worse health outcomes higher mortality lower educational achievement by children of displaced workers and other unwelcomed consequences they also said that your expected earnings might go down between 12 - in other parts of this report as high as 20% they suggest that that younger men tend to be more exposed to these kind of shocks to the job market and here is that long term effect of job displacement despite some recovery over time even after 20 years the earnings of displaced workers people who have lost their jobs during these massive layoff times remain 15 to 20 percent lower than the level implied by control group earnings in fact the report right here says that women who had been on the job for three or more years who lost their jobs during a recession when unemployment was higher than 8% which it is ended up with twenty point six percent lower earnings men between 21 and 50 years old who had been working at the same job for six or more years lost 20% of their revenue and if you only worked at an existing job for three or more years your future earnings could go down by as much as 22 percent this is horrible like now this makes sense to me I mean think about this you get laid off and right now we have this rosy expectation that as soon as everything goes back to normal we'll be right back to work and 91% of us are like you up we'll be right back at work we'll just collect unemployment in the mean time and you know what six hundred bucks a week all right whatever will get another stimulus check yeah this sucks but we'll take some more mortgage forbearance you know what maybe cancel rent on Twitter and we'll go back to work yet the reality is based on the actual data that these economists are looking at we get screwed when we get laid off like a $1200 stimulus check is a drop in the bucket to the damage it causes to a massive amount of people's earnings I mean just think about this for a moment I slap together a quick little spreadsheet we have a hundred fifty seven million workers in America with an average income of forty eight thousand five hundred dollars each if all of these people that is twenty five percent of these people are laid off and when they finally end up back at work they make twenty percent less money so basically I took all the people and said from all these people those people who are unemployed go back to work and end up making 20% less money that means every single year our country loses 380 point seven billion dollars of incomes for people that's 380 billion dollars of less money that can circulate around the economy solely because people got lot late off and then ended up going back to work and made 20 percent less money over 20 years that's seven point six trillion dollars just in the amount of money that people are making less and remember every single time somebody spends a dollar it spreads through the economy five point five times well there are now seven point six trillion less dollars over the next twenty years thanks to layoffs and when people go back to work the 20% reduction in earnings that they can actually expect to make so it finally makes sense to me why is Fed Chairman Jerome Powell with the money printer going do it up printing money really fast here but oh crap this sucks like people getting laid off this isn't good like it's one thing if we all go home and just you know zoom call each other for 30 days it's quite another if we stay laid off and companies are like you know what we'll just rehire a three out of ten people now this is not good and this is exactly why or at least one of the reasons why I'm sure there plenty of others why the Fed is freaking out and why the Fed is demanding Congress issue more stimulus I hope you appreciate this insight if you like this kind of insight into money and the psychology of money and you want to learn and you want to do something well first of all give yourself a license like become a licensed lender become a licensed real estate agent become a CPA do something because your job might not be around anymore and if you don't like the income you have now get a license so that you can increase your income at the same time if you want to learn how to make money we'd love to see you there and get two free stocks with weeble guess why because they way I totally saw this coming right I'm pretty sure I called this like for video goes ago I'm like there they say the promotion's expiring but I don't think it's actually expiring yet they brought the two free stocks back and of course I sign up for life insurance with the link below thanks for watching folks we'll see you next time
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