저자: HowardMarks · 외국인
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결론: 현재 시장은 고밸류·저수익·고위험 국면이며, 완전 투자하되 신중한 포트폴리오를 유지하라는 메시지다. [시장 사이클 판단] - 시장은 내재가치 대비 다소 높은 수준이며, 향후 방향은 상승·보합·하락 모두 가능하나 하락 가능성이 상승보다 높다고 봄. - 현재 경기회복 10년차로 역사상 최장 수준이며, 강세장도 10년 이상 지속 중. [투자자 심리 및 신호] - 낙관, 탐욕, 위험 감수 성향이 높고 투자자 만족과 질투가 확산된 상태로 진단. - 기업신용에 자금이 몰리고(too much money chasing too few deals), 신흥국 채권, 사모펀드, 벤처, 암호화폐로 자금 유입이 확인됨. - 아르헨티나 100년 만기 채권 수요 등 과도한 낙관 사례 언급. [저수익·고위험 환경 논리] - 무위험금리 하락으로 모든 자산 수익률이 평행 이동하여 낮아짐. - 위험자산 수익률 기대는 높지만 실제 보장되지 않으며, 위험 감수 대비 보상이 줄어든 상태. [자산배분 제언] - 옵션 중 1번(과거 방식 유지)은 불가능, 2번(기대수익 하향 수용)·3번(위험 축소)·6번(특수 니치 투자)의 조합이 적절하다고 제시. - 현금화(4번)는 과도하며, 공격적 레버리지(5번)는 현 시점에 적절하지 않다고 봄. - 자산 선택과 사이클 포지셔닝 병행이 핵심이며, 현재는 '신중하게 전액 투자' 기조 유지. [출연자 전망] - 특정 종목·지수 방향 예측은 없음. 시장 전반이 고평가 영역에 있어 향후 1~3개월 기대수익은 낮고 하락 리스크가 더 크다는 취지. [리스크 및 조건] - 고평가가 즉시 하락을 의미하지는 않으며 추세가 지속될 수 있음. - 경기 침체 시점이나 강세장 종료 시점은 확실히 예측할 수 없음. - 본 발언은 2023년 5월 기준 장기 관점이며 개별 자산 단기 방향에 대한 구체적 수치 근거는 제시되지 않음.
다듬은 글
getting the odds on your side and that's very important we never know what the future holds remember what I said you can't do anything which is sure to be right or or or anything close to certainty all you can do is get the odds of a favorable future on your side so the way I think of this and this is described in the book at length because I think it's important is the future is like a lottery there's a bowl and it's full of lottery tickets and the lottery tickets are the possible future outcomes and there are many of them and it's because there are many possible future outcomes that the world is uncertain and investing is risky and something fate or whatever you want to call it reaches into the bowl and pulls one ticket all the tickets in the bowl are the possible outcomes and the one that is selected is the actual outcome and we never know which one it's going to be you reach in the bowl you get a ticket it could be any of the tickets in the bowl and there are many now does that mean that we can't know anything about the future that we can't deal intelligently with the future and no it doesn't mean that what we can know is the mix the character of the tickets in the bowl sometimes there are a lot of good tickets and not too many bad ones and sometimes there are a lot of bad tickets and not too many good ones so you want to invest when the odds are in your favor when are the tickets in the bowl most favorable when are the odds in your favor when we're at a low when are the tickets in the bowl unfavorable when are the odds against you when we're at a high so the question is can we figure out the difference so when are the odds against you when are there more losing tickets in the bowl than winners and the answer is if you put all the things together that I've said so far when there's a high level of investor optimism when investors are spurred on by greed and excitement and jealousy of other people's good results when there have been good results in the market to date because that reassures people when investors are happy with their gains or jealous of the gains of others when there is unwise risk tolerance and when there's eagerness to supply capital and when are these things seen at cyclical highs you can't see these things at Lowe's there's no optimism there's no greed there's no willingness to provide Capital at lows if if those things existed we wouldn't be at a low these things are the fear the greed and so forth they're seen at highs and when are the odds in your favor what causes there to be more winning tickets in the bowl than losers the answer is when there's a lack of optimism a high level of fear poor recent market performance widespread losses excessive risk aversion and reluctance to supply capital and if you see these things then clearly people are going to be upset and fearful and as a result prices are going to be low and when are these things seen at cyclical laws now where are we now well I thought you'd never ask the the line moving through the chart is the fair value the intrinsic value the central value the norm the right value whatever you want to call it and then of course with Market fluctuates around it excesses and Corrections so as depicted here I think that we're somewhat above the intrinsic value it's hard to say exactly where where we are but I think we're above intrinsic value and uh you know this I'll talk to a minute more uh about the way we are but that's how I would sum up now what's going to happen tomorrow let's assume that I'm correct let's assume that that the market really is somewhat above the intrinsic value what does that imply for performance tomorrow by wait I don't mean tomorrow tomorrow I mean over the next year and the answer is who knows the fact that something is overpriced does not mean that it's going to go down because if you could if you look back at the last if you look back at the last cycle the last time we were at the same place you can see that it went much higher so the fact that we're in a little bit overpriced doesn't mean we're not becoming more overpriced these Trends continue until they stop but the question is what's the where are the odds and it is true that from this point in the cycle we can have up or flat or down all three are possible does that mean that they're equally possible and the answer is no we're more likely to have a decline than a gain the odds are against us when the price is above the intrinsic value but not to the point where we should have certainty knowing where we stand in the cycle and knowing the odds of success can deliver one of the greatest advantages in investors world but it's not perfect so now if we if we have established I have established to my satisfaction I don't know about yours the fact that we're a little bit overpriced today now I'm going to talk about how one goes about investing in what I call an a low return World which is where I think we are in looking at today's market conditions and by the way my these remarks do not apply just to Spain or just to Europe or just to the U.S or just to China or just the stocks or just the bonds these are General comments about all the markets but when I look out today I see that the uncertainties are unusual in terms of their number and level that perspective returns in many asset classes are relatively low that asset asset Prices range from Full to excessive and risky behavior is common the bottom line for me of these four things is that we are living in a low return high risk world but our money has to go someplace and the rest of this presentation will be about how we figure that out now I look out at the environment of the last couple of years and what do I see we're in the 10th year of an economic recovery in the states and the longest recovery in history ran 10 years in fact we're in the 11th month of the of the 10th year so by historic standards we're getting very late in the cycle there is no rule that says because there's never been a recovery in the states that went below Beyond 10 years this one can't either there's no gate that comes down on the 10th anniversary and says the recovery has to stop but what what are the odds what are the odds that the economic recovery continues for another five years or what are the odds that it stops relatively soon but certainly not today we're in the longest bull market in history stocks have risen you know the the low was reached on March the 9th of uh 09 so we have more than 10 years into the bull market it's more than any other in history there are a few super stocks called the fangs Facebook Apple Amazon Netflix Google uh which are moving way way up getting everybody excited some some group of what I call Super stocks is present in every bull market there's very strong demand for corporate credit I wrote a memo in September entitled too much money chasing too few deals that has been the case in my opinion in corporate credit there's money flowing into Emerging Market debt and in normal cautious risk averse times the month the money is not so eager to get into the Emerging Markets but in in bullish aggressive excited times it is and by the way back in I guess it's now two years back in May of 17 uh the world was prepared to buy Hundred Year bonds of Argentina at nine percent and you know Argentina had I think five devaluations in the prior Century so what's the probability that Argentina is going to get through the next Century without a devaluation not not high and yet people were willing to lend Argentina money for a hundred years that's a sign of optimism and aggressiveness on the part of most investors we have record financing for private equity which is piling up money which is a statement that if you if you buy corporate assets and you buy it with borrowed money you'll make a lot we have an onrush of capital for technology and Venture investing which of course requires great bullishness because it's all about big gains in the future everybody knows that eight or nine out of every 10 Venture Investments fail but they're seduced by the opportunity to make a hundred times your money in Uber or Lyft and so the money is now flowing in and finally investment in cryptocurrencies and I see that Bitcoin has now doubled in the last few months of course it's it's down uh about almost two-thirds from the high at the end of 17 but there's excitement about crypto so you take all these things together and by the way so I think one of the most important words that I'd like to teach you today in English is the word inference the important thing is not what happened these are the events that have occurred or are occurring the important thing is what do they mean what should you conclude what message should you take away from the events that are occurring and in my opinion when you see these things what it tells me you look at that list it says to me the things that are governing the market today are optimism trust in the future faith in investing and investors a low level of skepticism risk tolerance not risk aversion the question is do you agree that these are the proper inferences and if they are what do they tell you about the market but they tell me is that this is not a positive climate for prospective returns and safety in this kind of climate safety and returns are not made easy they're made hard to get now let's talk about why prospective returns are low we mentioned risk aversion and I said as I said to you it's an extremely important concept it's not one that most people are familiar with but I was very fortunate back in the middle 60s to go to graduate school at University of Chicago where they were teaching a new investment Theory and what it taught was that there's a line like this that connects return on risk and as you can see the line slopes up and to the right and what that means is that as as Pro as perceived risk increases perceived return increases that's where people get this belief that the more risk they take the more money they make but it can't be that easy because if it was true that you could depend on risky assets to make you a lot of money then they wouldn't be risky so there must be something wrong with that expectation no what that means is that assets that are perceived as being risky have to be perceived as offering higher returns or else nobody will make those Investments but they don't have to deliver and you have to understand the difference between expectations and and events but anyway there is an expectation that riskier assets will produce higher returns and that is embodied in the line that goes up into the right and it starts with something called the risk-free rate here which is the return on the safest Investments which is 30-day treasury bills and it proceeds from there up and to the right and all asset classes fall into line so if you go back a reasonable period of time it looked like this so you have the risk-free rate then you have treasuries then you have which are a little riskier then you have high grade bonds still riskier quality stocks aggressive stocks high-yield bonds private equity and the line slopes up and to the right as it should every investment which is a little riskier should appear to offer a little more return or else the market is not rational that's the way it was I'm going to say you know 10 or 20 years ago and that's the way it should be the the issue is that when we got into the global financial crisis the central banks of the world were afraid about the economic future and so they lowered the risk-free rate and when they lowered the risk free rate everything else fell with it the return on treasuries and high grades and quality stocks and high-yield bonds and private Equity also declined that's what we call a parallel shift the line fell and throughout and so the Returns on other assets fell into line with the decreased return on the risk-free rate and that's approximately where we are today it would not make any sense if the risk-free rate is very low and of course in Europe there's trillions of dollars of bonds that have negative yields it wouldn't be it wouldn't make any sense for for you know the risk-free rate to be low or negative and other classes to be safely High so everything falls in line and so because the rates are low can we back up one yeah you can see that the people who used to invest here and get good returns with safety now have to go out here to high risk behavior to try to get the similar return and so investors in many markets have taken on increased risk to try to get the returns they want too much money is chasing the limited opportunities in Risk markets and the race to the bottom is underway and as I said before the seven worst words in the world are out there today in my opinion too much money chasing too few deals if that's true you want to know about it maybe you don't want to participate in that giveaway now as investment managers as we as your bank what can we do for you everything we do falls under one of two headings asset selection or cycle positioning asset selection means trying to hold more of the things that will do well and less of the things that will do less well and cycle positioning means trying to have more money invested more aggressively when the odds are in your favor and less money invested aggressively when the odds are against you it doesn't mean in out people always say to me is this the time to get in or get out is it the time to buy or sell the answer is it's not black or white it's more aggressive sometimes and more defensive at other times and and some people say well yeah there is no better or worse time to be aggressive or defensive and I think that that's selling short because if you say that then you're giving up on the second of these features and I think the second Pursuit can be very valuable now I believe that there are times for aggressiveness and there are times for defensiveness when prices are low pessimism is widespread and investors are fleeing from risk most investors that's the time you should become aggressive or we but when prices are high and enthusiasm is every place and investors are risk tolerant that's the time to be defensive I think it's very easy to see that it's not so easy to do it's not so easy to understand it's not so easy to take the action but that's the very simple formula so if you agree then the question is which time is this our investments rich or cheap where do we stand in the market cycle how should we be positioned versus our normal risk postures is today if you have a certain normal risk attitude today should you be more aggressive or more defensive it's a very simple question so we emphasize offensive defense should we worry more about losing money or worry more about missing opportunity today will there be a reward for money and nerve to invest or will there be reward for conservatism and risk control and our mantra today and recently last few years has been moved forward but with caution things are not so bad that we have to be terrified and not move forward not invest we are essentially fully invested today but with caution which means that our portfolio we're always cautious at Oak Tree our portfolio is even more cautious than usual today we are fully invested with a cautious portfolio and I think it's a good formula for Success now you should say well why not no Investments well the answer is we can't be sure that the future is bad why not fully invested well we can't be sure that it's good and the evidence to me is that it's not quite good so fully invested but with caution so here's the last slide as I said to you I think we're in a low return world and if so the options are limited you can invest as you always had and expect your historic returns but the truth is they're not out there because nothing yields what it used to yield it used to be a bond yield five today it may yield negative so you can't get your historic returns by doing the things that you used to be do historically so maybe number two number two says you should invest as you always have and expect that that the returns will be lower and that is mature that's grown up it's not fun but it's the truth number three you can reduce the risk in your portfolio to prepare for bad times and accept a return which is even lower still and that is cautious number four you can go to cash at in your case a negative return and wait for a buying opportunity the trouble is it's it's tough to wait for a few years and if the market does well as it has in our country in recent Years you'll have a lot of regret or you can go the other way you can do five you can increase your risk in pursuit of high returns in the belief that you'll get higher returns if you do riskier things or number six you can put money into what I call special niches and invest with what I hope are special people in the hope that you can do better now in my opinion none of these is entirely satisfactory they all have problems there's only one observation however this is all the choices there are when you're living in a high risk low return world there's no easy way to make a satisfactory return so you really have to choose between these and by the way that means without number one because number one doesn't exist so to me the right things for today are a mix of two three and six I wouldn't do four I don't think it's appropriate to go to cash the the Outlook is not so bad and the asset prices are not so high that you should go to cash and you shouldn't in my opinion certainly do number five I don't think this there's any point today in being aggressive so some combination in my opinion of two three and six and that's what I wanted to tell you today at the request of the bank
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