저자: KevinPaffrath · 외국인
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바이낸스 10/10 플래시 크래시 원인을 오라클 가격 전환 직전 오더북 설계 결함과 스테이블코인 USDe 급락에 따른 레버리지 청산 연쇄로 설명하고, 일부 시장조성자 이탈과 신규 상장 조건(의혹)을 함께 제기. 준비금(Proof of Reserves) 투명성에 의문을 제기하며 부채 축소와 현금 대비를 권고. 비트코인 관련 청산 규모 약 190억 달러 언급. 특정 자산의 1~3개월 방향 예측은 없음.
다듬은 글
A lot of you know that I have never been the biggest fan of CZ or of Binance. It all goes back to years ago, the interview between CZ and Sarah Eisen where Sarah Eisen bluntly and in numerous different ways asked CZ, "Do you actually have the reserves to back the funds you say you have?" and he dodges the question over and over and over again suggesting oh well we have a proof of reserves audit but remember that the the scam with proof of reserve audits and then we're going to get into the drama that contributed to this scam in Bitcoin which we have a lot to talk about with 19 billion in liquidations of course Binance is now airdropping some breadcrumbs back to people but we'll talk about that in just a moment understand quickly how proof of reserve work.
If you have 10 stable coins, let's just use a very simple example to simplify this. Let's say you have 10 stable coins, tokens, whatever. Let's say you have 10 buckets and each of them are worth a billion dollars. Well, technically to support all of that infrastructure, you would need $10 billion to say they're all backed one.
But what people do with proof of reserves financing is they say, "Yeah, we have $1 billion." And if you compare 1 billion to stablecoin 1, yep, we've got one bill. Compare it to stablecoin 2, yep, we've got one bill. Compare it to three, yep, we've got one. But they might actually only have one bill compared to the total of 10 that they say they do.
While at the same time saying, yeah, yeah, we've got proof of reserves when we compare one to one. So, you got to be careful with this. We don't know if that's exactly what's going on. But that sketchiness from that interview years ago has always made me skeptical that the people at Binance are shysters.
And I have been a big fan of getting away from the any of these exchanges. Like people use them for trading, which is great, but you want to be off these platforms, not your keys, not your crypto. Unfortunately, people get suckered into leverage. And that's where we end up getting a potential for a disaster like what we had with Bitcoin here.
So, let's understand what happened not just with Bitcoin on Friday, why Bitcoin fell, but why that led to a cascade of problems at Binance. So, here's what happened. There were a lot of tokens like ATM that fell to roughly zero or IODEX or ENJ. These fell a lot. The problem that happened on Friday under the catalyst of Donald Trump's trade war was that Binance was just in the process of moving about 8 days left.
They were just in the process of moving to actually quoting prices on their platform using market pricing elsewhere which is known as Oracle pricing. So the way this basically works is if you look at market pricing on a stock, let's understand this because this will help you understand exactly what happened a lot more easily.
Let's look at AMD for example. When you look at a stock like AMD, you see it's trading for $236 on Robin Hood. Well, Robin Hood isn't using their own order book to determine AMD's pricing. They're generally going to use information directly from the NASDAQ or New York Stock Exchange. And so understand that all the major brokers, whether it's Robin Hood or Weeble or Tasty Trades or Interactive Brokers or Charles Schwab or JP Morgan, they're all looking at one data feed.
They're looking at the exchanges data feed for where that stock is listed, which means you see the whole order book, which is really important because if you see the whole order book, it means you're going to have the thickest book available. Now, why does that matter? Because if some big whale comes in with a $10 million order, let's say, and they hit the sell button, well, for AMD, if you're using the NASDAQ's pricing, you're probably not going to eat up the order book because there are plenty of people.
You hit a $10 million sale, you've got plenty of people willing to buy in that order book. Now, what if Weeble said, "You know what? We're actually going to use our own order book. We're not going to use the NASDAQ's pricing. we're just going to use a book that is only our customers. And now somebody comes in with a $10 million order, but you don't have enough buyers to match up with that.
What happens then is the price could actually artificially plummet way more than it should based on using data available from the entire market because you're not using price discovery from the entire market. You're only using price discovery from Binance. So, of course, if you have a lot of sellers on Binance and you're only matching up to buyers on Binance, so Binance can go try to make some more money, then in a market panic, they end up screwing you, the user on Binance.
Now, understand, Binance got exposed for this issue. People knew this was an issue and people said, "We need to fix it." And so, what did Binance do? Binance said, "All right, we're going to go ahead and update our software. We're going to update this software to make sure that we're going to use pricing that is widely available.
We're going to end this design flaw and we're going to use Oracle data." And so that way we don't have stuff like this happen. Here's for example uh a particular uh read of um USDE to USDC on curve and what you find is that broad market data for the stable coin showed the stable coin during this shock this tariff shock on Friday the stable coin only dropped to 99.57 which is which is actually really nominal for a stable coin movement and generally algorithms come in really quickly and buy this up.
The whole point of algorithmic trading is that algo say, "Oh, well, this is a stable coin. It's supposed to be trading at exactly $1. If it goes down, we're going to buy it up and stabilize it back to a dollar. If it goes up, we sell it." And that's how they make money. It's sort of like being a market maker.
That's how they make their money. The problem is, if you actually look at what happened on Binance, in Binance's case, this stable coin collapsed. When you compare USDE to Tether, for example, which again should be stabilized at one, it actually collapsed to 65. And because it collapsed to 65, all of a sudden, people's accounts looked like they had just lost a bunch of value, which you think, okay, a 35% drop.
Should that matter? Not if you're cash, but if you're on leverage at Binance, using 10 to 20x leverage at Binance, you're screwed because now all of a sudden 20x leverage or 30x leverage turns you into an instant liquidation. And this is why a lot of people on social media were complaining and they're saying, "Hey, wait, this is ridiculous.
We just got liquidated before our stop losses could even trigger. That's not good." Now, Binance comes out and suggests, "Oh, well, this is because of heavy market activity and we're under load and users might be experiencing delays displaying issues, which that also led market makers to withdraw offering bids on Binance, which just exacerbates the issue.
See, if you're a market maker in a in a panic, you can make a lot of money by providing liquidity. You know, people want to sell. You provide liquidity at wider spreads and you go make it up on other platforms, but you pick up the spreads. In English, market makers love volatility. But the problem was Binance's system was so damn overwhelmed that your funds weren't safu because the market makers dipped out cuz they're like, "We can't even get your software to work right now.
It's glitching out so badly. We're just not going to provide quotes. We're not going to quote on Binance." And so what happens? you get even more of a deterioration because it now looks like the market makers rugged. Now the market makers, who knows, maybe they were in on it, but the argument is that the market makers rugged because the Binance platform failed.
Now, is it a chicken or egg problem? Who knows? But a lot of people in this flash crash, which is seen as the worst since 2017, look at this and say this was insider manipulation that people knew about this glitch. People knew that we were going through this transition. Here it is. A suspicious window.
On October 6th, Binance announced plans to fix this exact problem. The exchange said it would switch from using its own order book prices to more reliable external data. The change was scheduled for October 14th, which was yesterday. But the flash crash happened on October 10th, right in the middle of the 8-day window.
This leads a lot of people to say this was an attack. This was a coordinated attack to utilize this screwed up order book one last time and mint billions of dollars and then of course give some of the money back as breadcrumbs. Now, of course, you kind of have to pick your side on this, but Binance is not just in the heat for this.
Binance is also getting a lot of heat right now for this basically leaked offering of how Binance forces new ICOs or coin or token listings to provide a lot of of of sort of their base token or uh you know their their order book if you will uh and uh some of their reserves to Binance. So either Binance can profit or to potentially stabilize the market.
Now this depends on which way you want to look at it. But take a look at this. All of this has to do with this guy who has a company called Try Limitless. Not sponsored. I haven't checked it out. I don't know anything about it. But this guy's following's been blowing up, CJH Tech. And he's his following's been blowing up because he got an offer from Binance for listing on Binance.
And the offering on Binance was very different from Coinbase. Coinbase said, "Hey, if you want to list on Coinbase, just build something meaningful." Binance says, "Hey, we want you to give us 1% so we could do an airdrop on day one when we listed. Then we want 3% of your token supply so we could airdrop that in 6 months to kind of keep momentum going.
Then we want 1% to pay for our own marketing for your product. Then we want 100% of total value locked for a token pool on Pancake Swap. We also want a $250,000 security deposit, they say to prevent rugps, which there's some argument for this. 3% to be reserved for the uh BNB Hodler program, $200,000 worth of tokens uh to be set aside at the best possible pricing for Binance affiliate marketers, and $2 million of a BNB security deposit to get you a listing on Binance.
So basically, we want like $3 million worth of assets and we want you to put those where we direct them into our marketing into our Binance stable coin uh or it's not actually the stable coin. The BNB is not a stable coin, but into the Binance token. We want uh you to pay for our marketing and we'll do all this stuff for you.
You're going to pay for it out of the proceeds from your offering and you're going to put all this money in as a as a security deposit so that way you can't rug or at least you reduce the chances of rugging. Now, this offering was supposed to be under an NDA, but what happened is CJ got the offer from the Binance salesperson before he ever signed the NDA.
This is what he says. And Binance is now lashing out like CZ blocked this guy. CZ is, you know, and Binance are claiming that this guy's a fraud, that he shouldn't be leaking this information. But all it's doing is actually providing more evidence. See, here's CZ. Wow, this guy really clout chasing, but what a loser.
I didn't even know who he was until he posted a fake image saying I blocked him. I could make it real, but I will choose to mute instead. Ignore is the best rejection. Meanwhile, CZ is literally lashing out on X and he probably blocked him and then unblocked him or whatever. Uh, this is just leading people to combine these two things and go, "Man, there's some shady stuff going on at Binance." So, did Binance have anything to do with this order book manipulation and this $19 billion rug pull that left people seeing their life savings absolutely destroyed?
I mean, you had people complaining about getting rugged for $9 million instantaneously. The market reaction was so violent heavily because of Binance's failed orderbook system that, you know, here's a guy who was like, "I thought about taking my own life. I lost $400,000. There's another guy who's like, I lost $9 million basically instantaneously.
Worst day of my life financially. And these are people who've got like Binance and BNB in their their username on Twitter. These are people who are like super excited uh about Binance. They love the leverage they could get there. They're super like gung-ho uh users of this platform who got rubbed. And so a lot of folks are pissed.
They're going, "Wait, Binance is now going to give I think it's up to $300 million in Actually, I wrote down my notes on this. Uh Binance is giving some money back in the form of an airdrop." But a lot of people are like, "Dude, this this doesn't even scratch the surface of the damage that was caused." So, if you look at the uh distributions, Binance is going to distribute between $4 and $6,000 in USDC totaling $300 million to eligible losers who were liquidated by at least $50.
And the liquidations represent at least the 30% loss ratio of the account. Now, what's really interesting about this is $300 million divided by the user base that got liquidated here works out to about $187 of stimulus per one trader because 1.6 million people lost because of that Binance glitch. That works out to $187 per user, $4 to $6,000 range.
you know, worst downturn since the FTX disaster. So, a lot of folks are like, "This is crazy. It was their fault $19 billion got liquidated, and they're giving a fraction back at the same time as, you know, people see this manipulation of potentially new listings as just a way for Binance to profit off the backs of people." Now, other people say, "Hey, this is actually just Binance trying to stabilize new listings." And I think they have somewhat of a point there.
I think new listings are quite likely to often get rugpulled. So, requiring security deposits is probably a smart thing, not surprising. Now, is it Binance's fault that they ended up leading this, you know, cross margin liquidation, which is basically where you, you know, leverage up your wrapped Ethereum or wrapped Salana positions or your stable coin positions to get 20 to 30x leverage on Binance.
Is it likely that that very leverage system and the failure failures of the technology platform led to a lot of people lose money? Of course. Which is ironic because now what a lot of people in the crypto community are doing is they're actually saying hey we need a regulated exchange which is kind of hilarious because like the whole point that you know people got so excited about with crypto with for was that oh it's going to be deregulated DeFi is great but this is exactly what happens when you have unregulated broker dealers and exchanges.
Now, most of the lawsuits from the SEC against platforms like uh you know uh Binance have been dropped because Trump has gone you know all in pro crypto. But this is exactly why people are like bro like nobody likes the suits but you want some safeguards at the suits and this is why investor protections exist because when people get rugged like this they're like yo where was the government?
It's like, well, you wanted DeFi, you know, even though it's a centralized exchange, obviously, you wanted no regulation. You wanted less regulation. So, it's kind of ironic now how many people are like, I'm taking my money out of Binance. I want a regulated platform. It's like, well, yeah. Uh, anyway, so, uh, this is now where people are joking like your funds are not SEFU at Binance because Binance always says this.
this by Safu has to do with, you know, their desire uh to say that funds are backed one to one uh especially in stable coin assets. But again, I started this whole segment out with saying you got to be careful of that pitch because we've never actually seen at least I have it. Maybe I'm wrong. Maybe it's out there.
Don't sue me, bro. This is my video my my opinion here, right? But the reserves in the SEFU fund, they're designed to protect users in emergencies. Uh but like this is this is not backed at least that I've seen by credible audits. So the SEFU fund yeah it exists but we don't have the actual transparency to say oh yeah yeah yeah we're actually good here.
It's not like there's cypic protection uh that you have that's backed by you know or or like FDIC protection that's basically backed by Jerome Powell. You're not you don't have those sort of backings. So, the fund exists, lacks independent, verified thirdparty audits as far as I can tell. They show Binance, like they show wallet addresses, but we don't know what kind of debts are against that, right?
So, we have to be careful of that as well. Like, it's easy to flash around a wallet address, but how many liabilities are against that? So, you got to be really careful with these these platforms. You know, it's it's uh they're they're in a little bit of a poopy dupy. You know, is Binance going to go bankrupt here or whatever?
No. Like, they'll get through this. they'll be fine. Uh but you know, it's hyperlid. Look, what you have to remember is leverage, leverage, leverage, leverage in this sort of market. If there's anything that I could advocate, and I hate sounding like this because it's like so Dave Ramseyesque, and I've always been a big fan of like mortgage debt and like secured loans that I have never before in my life been of this mindset that this is a great time to do whatever you can, especially at all-time highs, to pay off debt.
Do whatever you can to pay off debt. Get out of debt. Be safe. Because look, I get it. We love that song are going up. You know, this morning on the alpha report, we're like, "Hey, MP materials, it's going to go down." Rejecting off 100. It's done it multiple times before. Look at what's happening. Okay, we were at pre-market.
We were at like 98.65. It's now at $89. That's like a 9% decline from w. My point is downturns can happen very, very, very, very, very quickly. And you need to be prepared for that. And the best way to be prepared is not losing sleep at night because you're going to get margin called. You're going to get screwed by debt.
Understand the debts you have in life. It's not just credit cards. It's not just buy now pay later. It's not just margin debt. It's all of it together. Household debt. And it's taxes that you owe, right? Remember, you got tax bills coming, credit cards, buy now pay later, uh utility bills, mortgage bills, rent payments, car bills, car debt, student loan debt, whatever.
All that is fine when we're at the top of the market. But when we go into a recession, which I pray we don't. I pray we don't. But when we do, all that stuff stacks up and it makes for a really crappy decade cuz, you know, I think if we hit a recession, it's going to be a decade of hell to to try to actually get people jobs again.
That's why I hope we don't. Uh, and so that's why I'm a big fan of preparing for that. Anyway, that's my take on what's going on with Binanc.
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