저자: TomLee · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 시장은 이미 바닥을 어느 정도 형성했다고 보며, 코로나 위기의 정점은 4월 중순으로 예상된다. 시장 바닥 판단: 나쁜 경제지표(댈러스 연은 지표, 주간 실업수당 청구건수)에도 시장이 반등한 것은 바닥 신호로 해석된다. 다만 최종 바닥인지는 사후적으로만 확인 가능하다고 봤다. 리밸런싱 효과: 분기말 연기금 등의 리밸런싱으로 수천억 달러 규모의 매수 유입이 예상되며, 채권이 주식을 크게 상회해 이 효과가 클 것이라고 설명했다. 6주간 이어진 매도 압력과 과도한 부정적 심리가 해소되는 계기로 본다. 추가 하락 가능성: 지난 몇 주간 주식이 급락한 이전 사례처럼 거짓 바닥일 수 있다는 질문에 대해, 이번 주 고용지표 등 데이터와 FOMC를 중요한 테스트로 제시했다. 시장이 확신을 잃지 않는다면 악재가 이미 반영되었다는 신호로 본다. 위기 중심 지역: 이탈리아 확진 증가세 둔화를 주목했고, 미국에서는 뉴욕시와 뉴욕주가 확산의 중심이므로 핵심 지표라고 강조했다. 위기 정점 전망: 시장은 위기의 정점 이후를 보고 있으며, 본인은 4월 중순을 정점으로 보고 있다. 즉 약 2주 뒤가 위기의 높이(정점)이며 끝은 아니라고 설명했다. 사회적 거리두기: 사회적 거리두기가 정점 이후에도 일정 기간 이어지고 식당·극장 등 소비는 제한될 것이라는 시나리오를 언급했다. 시장은 이를 이미 상당 부분 반영하고 있다는 취지다. 이미 발생한 조정: 위기 중심에 있는 종목들은 이미 50~70%대 하락하는 등 시장 내 큰 조정이 진행되었다고 설명했다.
다듬은 글
Tom thank you for joining us this morning this evening I should say and I guess the big question we'd all be asking is is there a reason to believe that we've hit a bottom yes I think the market has established some type of bottom I don't know if this is October oh wait well we're we still had some wood to chop but stocks were Bible or if it's the final bottom but the I think what's been encouraging is we've had some bad news I mean today we got some horrible economic numbers from the Dallas Fed and the markets managed to rally we got a really horrible jobless claims number last week and we managed to rally so if we're rallying on bad news I think that's a sign that we're probably at a bottom Tom let me play devil's advocate for just a moment which is one of the things that happens at the end of every month and we're seeing it right now there is huge inflows into the market because of what's called rebalancing that pension funds and other big investors have to do how much of it is that you know that there is definitely some effect you know there's been anticipated rebalancing by our clients and because bonds massively outperformed equities this quarter the pension rebalance would be quite significant you know I've seen some estimates that are several hundred billion dollars so it could be quite large but it all was part of that process of helping the market shift in favor of buyers you know for the last six weeks the market has had unrelenting selling pressure people have deleveraged and sentiment has gotten so negative so so even if it is kind of a mechanical benefit that does help really help re-establish market confidence Tom of course we've seen false bottoms before stocks tank then they start to pick up some steam before dropping again why should this time be different you know that I mean that's really the unknown question because market bottoms can only be really established with Rett with with retrospect I think this week's gonna be important tests because you know we have the payrolls number we've got so much data coming and the is M is the next couple days if if we don't see markets lose a lot of conviction during that time I think it's going to tell us that a lot of bad news is baked in and I know people are gonna roll their eyes because they're saying stocks need to fall 50% but stocks at the epicenter this crisis have already fallen 50 60 70 % so so there's already been a huge correction taking place within the market tom final question for you now I think this is the key for any investor who's out there this evening thinking about this what do you think the market believes is the length of this crisis meaning how long do you think the market is already calculating that most people in America are going to be home and that not just a home but that there's going to be a period and I don't know whether you think it's weeks or months afterwards where we are doing social distancing and most people are going to work and then they're going home but they're definitely not going to the restaurant or they're not going to the movie theater or whatever what do you think is that what what do you think the market believes on that answer yeah I mean from what I can tell from speaking to our clients and you know we've been in constant contact the market is going to look for the beginning of the S you know so the high point of the crisis is going to mark when when investors can start thinking about the post-crisis world and and so I think Italy has been closely watched because it looks like they're finally APEC Singh on the number of cases New York's going to be incredibly important New York City and the state because it really is the center of the outbreak and give me a date certain now we are we talking June or we're talking I yeah so I think the peak April height of the crisis will be mid April and that's when people can start looking at the beginning of the end so two weeks okay from now okay that's not that's the height though not not the end okay Tom Lee thank you so much for joining us this evening you
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