저자: MarkMobius · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 연준은 인플레이션을 잡기 위해 금리를 더 올릴 가능성이 높으며, 신흥시장은 금리 인하 흐름 속에서 상대적으로 유망하고 중국 관련 노출은 대만 경유 반도체 중심으로 유지·확대될 수 있다. 연준 금리 전망: 인플레이션이 5%에서 6~8%로 추가 변동할 수 있어 CPI 발표에 따라 금리를 계속 올려야 한다고 봤다. 정치적 요인(선거 전 경기 충격 회피)으로 당분간 신중하게 인상하고 선거 이후 본격 인상할 것으로 전망했다. 연준 역할 딜레마: 물가 안정과 경기 관찰이라는 이중 임무가 충돌하며, 물가를 잡으려면 규칙상 금리를 계속 올려야 한다고 설명했다. 신흥시장: 많은 신흥국 중앙은행이 경기를 우려해 금리를 낮추고 있어 일부 국가에 긍정적이다. 미국이 고금리로 가면 이를 따라가야 할 수 있다. 시장은 금리와의 상관관계가 높지 않아 신흥시장이 최근 미국(S&P500)을 앞서기 시작했다고 평가했다. 동남아·인도·브라질: 중국 리오프닝은 태국 등 동남아 경제에 좋고, 인도와 브라질도 양호하며 브라질은 미국보다 인플레이션이 낮아 금리 인하 여력이 있다고 봤다. 포트폴리오: 기술산업, 특히 반도체 관련 기업을 1순위로 보유하며 미·중이 반도체에 대규모 투자하는 만큼 관련 기업의 성장을 기대한다. 중국 비중: 중국 본토 비중은 그대로이나 중국 노출은 대만(대만 비중이 가장 큼)을 통해 확보하고 있으며, 반도체 발전에 따라 이 노출이 늘어날 것으로 봤다.
다듬은 글
Yes, wanted to get your views as to what the Fed Reserve is doing and indeed what message it's sending out and how to fix it. The way you look at the investment world. Well, if you remember about a year ago we were talking about this and I was saying that clearly we do. It's a paradox. If we do, they they're going to keep on raising rates in order to solve the inflation problem.
And that's what's happening in Brad Stone is expecting a downturn in the rates, but in fact, the rates are going up or at least then it looks that way. But there's no question the game plan is that in order to solve inflation, you've got to keep on raising rates. So it's the inflation is at 5 percent.
You've got to go up to above 5. And if it's 6, you've got to go above 6 and then need you to even 8 percent. So I think it just depends on what's happening in the CPI. What kind of numbers come in? There seems to be a lot of flip flopping, though, I guess you could call it, in the forward guidance. My first it was, you know, things are the disinflationary trend and then the other data in January and then things are stronger.
And now they're saying we essentially have to go higher and faster, but there are data dependent. Does the Fed essentially have to hike into a recession just to gain some credibility back, Mark? Well, they their game plan is to solve inflation. Now, it's true that they have a dual role. One is to watch the economy.
And one is to copy inflation. But that's a conflicting role, basically, because if you want to solve inflation according to a rulebook, you've got to keep on raising rates. And of course, don't forget, there's a political element here. They don't want to damage the Reagan administration by raising rates too much and killing the economy.
So it's really complex. And I would say that they are going to continue this path in being very careful about raising rates. At the same time, once the election is over, then they are going to go and raise rates to where it will have some impact. Of course, I have an impact, Mark, on what happens in emerging markets, were you.
That's your bread and butter. Tell us about that and also whether that perhaps headwind can be somehow mitigated by the China reopening story. The interesting thing about emerging markets now is that many of these countries are actually lowering rates at this stage. That may be premature on their part, but they are more concerned about their economies.
Central banks in emerging markets are more worried about their economies and therefore are actually lowering rates. So that looks pretty good for a number of countries. But at the same time, if the US goes to higher rates than in many of these countries will have to follow. The good news is that actually the markets are not relying on race.
In other words, the correlation between the market movements and interest rates really is not pretty close. At the end of the day, it looks at history. So you'll see that emerging markets are now beginning to outperform the US, not least the S&P. Is the major markets doing quite well? So is there. I mean, if they're less sensitive to the rates environment, the U.S., I'm wondering, are they more correlated to the China growth story then?
Is that how you can tilt your investments now, Mark? It's not only in China that recovery in China is stopping a lot of these countries here. I am in Thailand now. It will be very good for the Thai economy and the rest of Southeast Asian countries. But you must remember that India's coming up. Brazil is doing very well.
These big countries are doing fairly well at this stage. Interestingly enough, a week ago, I was in Rio de Janeiro and SunPower, and I was surprised to see that inflation in Brazil is actually lower than in the US. So they're in pretty good spot to lower rates if they want to. So, Mark, what sort of investments do you have right now in portfolios?
How much of that geared towards China currently and if so, you know, whereabouts and what particular industry groups in particular? Well, the tech industry, of course, at number one for us, particularly anything related to semiconductors. As you know, both the United States and China putting enormous amounts of money into semiconductor research and production.
Therefore, companies related to that area, whether it be hardware or software, are going to do very well going forward. So that's one area that's very important for us. And if you look at our portfolio, you'll see that that's the number one category that we have in conference volume. You do have talked about you're turning a little bit more positive on China, though your allocation to the mainland remains the same.
Well, what you need to see, Mark, for you to actually expect add more exposure and your allocation to China. And why would that happen, you think? It's not happening in a vacuum. Looking more and more closely at Chinese stocks. Well, it depends on what you do. They describe as China. Taiwan is now our largest allocation, of course, is Taiwan province of China.
So, in fact, we're getting this exposure to China through Taiwan. And of course, as you know, China's Taiwan's biggest trading partner. And more and more of that will be coming as you see this development in semiconductors.
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