Mohamed El-Erian: The US economy is weakening at a faster pace

요약 보기

6월 PPI 전월비 0.2%·전년비 2.6%로 예상보다 높았으나 수요는 약화 중이며 기업의 가격결정력이 떨어지고 있다고 진단. 2분기 실적발표에서 수요 둔화와 마진 압박이 드러날 것으로 봄. 미국 경기침체 확률 35%, 연착륙 50%, 생산성 충격 긍정 시나리오 15%로 제시. 연준이 늦게 금리인하하면 연착륙 실패 가능성이 있다고 주장.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. welcome back here's a look at where markets ended the week after the major Banks kicked off second quarter earning season JP Morgan Chase Wells Fargo City Group all reporting a double beat beating on earnings and revenue for the quarterly numbers the June producer price index came in hotter than expected year-over-year up 2.6% and month over month up 2/10 of a percent this after the Consumer Price Index came in cooler than expected annually at 3% meanwhile Federal Reserve chairman Jay Powell putting a pre-election rate cut on the table while testifying before Congress this week pointing to a cooling labor market but he says it's not political Jordy now is alian chief economic adviser and former CEO of Pimco Muhammad L Aran Muhammad great to have you this week thanks very much for joining us I want to get your assessment of the macro story U take a look at the inflation numbers we did get this week how do you view them and how would you assess the macro growth story right now for the US economy so the main message that has come out from the two inflation reports that you just mentioned is first demand is weakening we're seeing demand destruction where people simply are not buying as much as they can buy companies are losing pricing power and that speaks to a bigger phenomenon which is that the US economy is weakening at a faster Pace than most people expect including the fed the second element that came out is that the supply side is a problem that while demand is weakening the supply side continues to result in sticky PPI inflation and it means that companies are going to face a squeeze on their margins and are going to have to make really difficult decision as to how much they want to pass on the higher costs well that's really what I wanted to get into because we are at the start of second quarter earnings season Muhammad and I'm wondering when these hotter readings are going to show up in margins for Corporate America what is your expectation for the second quarter earnings period which just began on Friday so I would encourage everybody to listen very carefully to what companies are telling us um the reason why the fed and others got the big inflation called wrong back in 2021 when they called inflation transitory is they didn't listen enough to what the companies were telling them and at that point the companies were telling them costs are going up we are facing strong demand we have confidence to pass on these costs in terms of higher prices and lo and behold we got the higher prices and the FED had to recognize it wasn't transitory now we're going to hear something very different in the next couple of weeks we're going to hear I suspect companies confirming that they are seeing softening demand seeing consumers having been turned off by the level of prices and they're going to Express concern about their ability to pass on the higher cost because of less pricing power that's what I expect we're going to hear and it's going to come ahead of the macro data which will will start reflecting that weakness in the next few months yeah so how weak could this macro story get are you worried about the US economy moving into recession next year so I put the risk of recession at 35% the risk of a soft Landing meaning yes we slow a bit but nothing dramatic at 50% and then the risk that we get a positive productivity shock from what's happening in life sciences in generative AI in sustainable energy at 15% so depending on whether you're optimistic or pessimistic you'll either think 50+ 15 of a soft landing something better I like that or you'll think 35% of a recession that's really high for such an event so recession is not my base case but assumes importantly that the FED starts cutting rates because as you know Maria the impact of monetary policy comes with a lag and If the Fed falls behind then it will not deliver the soft Landing we've only had one soft Landing the last few decades and that is 1995 when the FED moved early and recognized that its policy acts with a lag unfortunately right now we have a fed that's overly data dependent mhm Mohammad it's great to see you thanks very much for your insights on all of that thanks for having me Maria all right