WATCH OUT 🚨 MICHAEL BURRY JUST SAID THIS AND I AGREE 100% ‼️

요약 보기

마이클 버리가 S&P500 과열(쉴러 PE 약 41.6, 평균 17)과 고유가·지정학 리스크를 근거로 시장 조정 가능성을 경고했고, 화자는 이에 동의하며 조정 10~20% 가능성을 언급. 버리의 풋옵션(엔비디아·팔란티어 등 약 11억 달러) 보유를 강조. 화자는 레버리지 축소를 진행 중이며 S&P500이 700대 중반 지지선을 깨면 하락 가능성을 말함. 버리 본인 추천 종목 언급은 없음.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. Don't look now. We have some massive news coming out. Michael Bur has dropped, not only dropped this news, he is not going out on a limb. He is standing tippy toe on the end of that limb letting the world know exactly what he thinks. For those who may discount what he says, I am here to tell you I do not.

02. And I'm going to go over well, let's just call it uh this episode, the best stocks to buy now or the best stocks not to buy now. I'm going to be teaching about what he's talking about. He has a ratio he pulls out which is massive. There is a lot of things happening in the stock market that have me very very concerned.

03. So much so I have been reducing for those in my Patreon in my discord in my community in over all that you know I have been doing that I've been announcing it and I've been deleveraging slowly but surely. Today was another day in that. Now, I want to go over exactly what I see happening, where I see things going, and how I'm going to try to take advantage, but more importantly, what is Michael Bur doing?

04. He is out there. He is walking the walk. All right, he's talking the talk and he's walking the walk. I'm going to go over what he did and we are talking about a billion dollar move he did. Um, and it's just incredible. He's all in, man. He is all in. And uh I think you're going to find this episode to be extremely educational.

05. Now, I want to start with some shout outs before I get into all that beautiful knowledge. Hey, some of the plays I dropped yesterday. I'm just going to say this down there for those who say, "I can't afford to be in the Discord mo." I don't know how people do it without being in there. Now, these are the plays I dropped yesterday.

06. These five plays alone. Uh this is a 24-hour leader. This is what they did. 1,400 bones. Congratulations to those in the Discord. I know there was others out there doing their place. Steey out there dropping the wins. Hopssonator with the wins. Midas with the golden touch doing the wins. Mila, thanks Mo.

07. You know it. Hey, we're doing it. Zack 13, thank you. Hey, don't don't ever thank me. You guys are in here learning. You're earning. That's what it's about. Tough day average a little over 20%. Congratulations, Jen Well, Seeker in the house. Colin Rice, our futures expert and teacher who trades and teaches people how to do that.

08. He is in there sharing his wisdom. Sauce man 614mey. I love it. I love the names in here. Mala and we got just 88 diver. I don't even know if I'm saying it right. Shaman five. Shaman. I don't even know if Hoff, let's go. We got Tade. We got Kate in the house. We got so many. Ronnie D in the house. Steey.

09. So, if you guys aren't in here, we got a couple days left, not long, but we have CodeMo is right here. Boom. First link down below. Once you get in here, you'll have the opportunity to join the monthly right there. But we also have the second link down below, which is going to be the lifetime 40% off.

10. We have the monthly payment plan now, and you get access right away. Somebody said, "If I go on the monthly payment plan, do I get You get access right away. We're not like uh some of the stores when you used to have a layaway, you didn't get it until the end. Use start and use code mode knock 40% off these and get [clears throat] access right away.

11. Now, let's get into it. Let's get into it. Let's take a look at what Michael Bur is afraid of, what he's seeing, what I'm seeing, all this and the other stuff. Now, Michael Bur, I'll come back to this. He came out, he said one big thing. Michael Bur says the end is nigh. That's that's awesome. I love it when they throw out that medieval stuff.

12. Who is this? Is this JP? Nah, he's still on there, but he's not the the head. We got Kevin Worsh, I believe. Kevin Worsh. We got to figure out how to wash up my jokes and get them ready to go for that, but we will get there. Anyways, Michael Bry says, "The end is nigh as tops surge 784%, dwarfing the dot boom." And let me tell you something, and for anybody who, you know, a lot of these young guys and young ladies out there being influencers and talking, I'm not.

13. I'm a stock guy. I was in the industry during the dot bust. I was in the industry. I was working for the largest US firm for advising in the country. And now I'm here with you. So, I do want to say something about this. then you should subscribe because changes are happening very quickly in my portfolio, my holdings and everything.

14. I am not messing around. I'm actually as a a statistics guy. I taught it advanced statistics. I know Michael Bur is into that as well. He's a numbers guy. So am I. I see the same thing he sees. He's just very aggressive with it. And he was right during the big short. That was the whole real estate thing.

15. Is he going to be right with this one? And here's the deal. I think he is. And it's not even because of who he is. I actually trust my research 10 times more than anybody out there. Maybe not Warren Buffett. Warren Buffett's the one guy I would go with over anybody. But right now, he's retired. He's kicked his feet up in Omaha.

16. Oh, Michael Bur. Uh, a couple of things I do want to go through this in and talk business. All right. What do we got? The same instant helped the former hedge fund manager predict the 2008 crash. Yeah. Uh AI is here we go bolstered it as it is by what he sees as AI over speculation catastrophically overbuilt.

17. All right. Well, I see you. All right. So, he he's he's running uh his company as you guys can see taking a significant leverage short position which we'll talk about. He's talked about all kinds of stuff in here and you guys can read whatever the market has jumped the shark. Most recent analysis May 11th.

18. So we got a about a week after this, right? Has he been right? Has he been wrong? So May 11th, the market jumped the sharks. So he came out May 11th said this is it. What? and he said, um, record-breaking S&P 500 rally, one that filled the air with pre-t crash characterized by unfounded overhype and posed for an inevitable snap back to reality.

19. The market has jumped to shark and he pulled up a lot of the patterns of the recent market parallels of the prior to the 2000 crash, the great recession, which is 2008, the 1970s Middle East oil crisis, and even the 1929 Black Monday. The end of this is nigh. Uh Barry said gravely. Now I can tell you this.

20. Markets can stay irrational longer than we or companies can stay solvent. So that's a big statement. Now I got to tell you, I'm going to show you what he what he you know was May 11th. We're going to look at it. I'm going to judge him. But I actually agree with him. So before you think I'm going to come out and be o ultra, you know, hopeium filled, which I usually am, but not now.

21. Not now. The times are changing. The inflation's going through the roof. I'm seeing gas at $450 a gallon. Now it was $2.89 a little bit ago. One thing I do know is if you follow the energy over $100 a barrel for any kind of significant time, you are going to absolutely hammer this economy. And there is no doubt about it in my mind.

22. And we could be talking about, oh, I hate saying it, a recession. Now, I don't know if we're going to have a recession, but I got to tell you this. I see all kinds of uh threatening things, though, with gas going higher. Let me ask you this, and this is the truth. Let me know in the comments down below.

23. Since gas is now up there around 450 a gallon, you can let me know where you live, how much you're paying. But more importantly, this is the question I want to ask all the viewers out there when it comes to the best stocks to buy now, the best stocks not to buy now. Are you buying more stuff? More stuff because remember sales, earnings, all of that is what drives prices higher plus people buying, plus institutions buying.

24. Are you doing more buying of stuff or are have you been cutting back? Are you being more conservative? Because the truth be told, most people cannot afford to go out and pay almost 50% over 50% more in energy and wait till we get to the winter. we get the winter and things get cold and we're paying this much.

25. Oh goodness. And fertilizer and all of this and more jet fuel, everything is going to come to a head. And as it does, as it does, folks, I kid you not, things will get heated. And I don't think the market's going to just continue that climb. Now, I'm with him on that, and that is one of the reasons I've been making my changes.

26. So, let's go ahead and continue to review what he kind of talked about. Uh I want to go down to what he did right here. This is one of the big things. Barry believes we simply we're simply overdue for something more than a correction. I agree up to a point like I could see us going 10 to 20% as a correction into do we go into a full bare market that I don't know.

27. I can tell you this if they don't fix this energy stuff soon we are. I'm telling you that we are because if we can't fix the energy crisis and we continue to have what is it 20% of all the shipping goes through the straight of Hermoose. So if that's not taken care of I don't know what to tell you because it's just going to get worse.

28. All the cost of that is passed on. Remember what Black Rockck's Frink said, Larry Frink, it's either going to be 150 a barrel or 40 a barrel for years. There's no in the middle. We are moving closer to 150 a barrel and if they and right now there seems to be no no agreement between the US and Iran and a lot of people the experts I've talked to I'm not an expert on that but I do have experts around me are saying that the probability of more conflict is much much greater than a an agreement and I think one of them said it was like 70% chance for the conflict 10% chance for an agreement that's not good And so if that's the case, that means that you could see prices go even higher.

29. And that's one of the concerns I have. Uh the Schiller PE ratio, the S&P 500 Schiller PE ratio, which uses long-term data, and it comes up with a whole number. I'll make it simple, man. I'm going to show you right here. It is. And anytime it gets above, I believe it is right there. 17. 17 is the long-term average.

30. Anytime it's above there, it's overvalued. Anytime it's below there, it's undervalued. It's that simple. And you could say, well, what's it at? 41.63. Last time we got up above there was uh back in October 2021. We know what happened after that. Markets sunk down. Then all of a sudden, look, it's the runs.

31. We got the runs. The last time we were up this high, 44. And I was in the industry November 1999, the tippity tippity top of the iceberg before we got hammered. And that was the dot crash. Now, you might not know about the dot crash. Well, good news, folks. Good news, everyone. Name that character. Um, I got the good news for you.

32. I'm gonna take you back to November. All right. I'm gonna take you back to November of And remember, I was in the industry at this time. Oh, there it is. Look at this. Uh, I'm going to take you back here, right here. November 1999. Boom. Right here into here. And the market ran all the way up. We got up there and we had a bearish divergence where you started to see that coming down, but the market tipped out March of 2000, right?

33. That was it. We tipped out. And what what did we get after that? You went from 121 120 on the the the cues. Watch this. All the way down to 20. Now, some people say, "I can't I can't tell what that is, Mo." Well, I'll make it even easier. I'll go all the way out and we'll go out and I can't. Oh, it won't let me.

34. Right. Oh, I can't. It won't let me. H I can't do it. That's how you're going to see it's just a massive drop. A massive drop. So with seeing how ugly all that was and look at that just up up oh we had a little bit and then up up look how it's going straight up and that's what he's wor Look at that overbought on the X last time we hit up there on something like that we did go from 638 all the way down to roughly 556 his concerns are my concerns were on the 75 there.

35. Let's go to the week and I want to show you some of this. I'm going to show you what he got. Here it was. So, you had the weekly one. [snorts] We got oversold, broke the Ballinger band down to 550. We went all the way up to 722, which is ridiculous. In just a short period of time, we had what's known as the doi.

36. This is the warning shot where you had the run run sideways and now we're starting. In my opinion, this is the beginning. And this is the beginning. I'll be I'll be shocked. I'll be blunt. I'll put the line there. I'm going to be honest. The only way I see this line getting broke is if they come up with a peace agreement on Iran, which I don't see happening.

37. So, with that being said, here is the line 722. I believe we're going down uh and we're going to get close to that 13 before we break this. All right. So, if you said, but look how close we are. I know. And I still think we're going to hit the 13 first. As that 13 comes up, we're going to come down and tap it.

38. And that's what I think's going to happen. But what did Michael Bur do? What he You just said he put his money where his mouth is, Mo. You got it. Here's what he's holding. I want you guys to see it. 23 million he bought. And this is new position. Molina Healthcare. He also got Lululemon. Look at that.

39. Look at that. He put 17.8 mil into that. SLM Corp. He put 13.3 and BRKP 13. I thought you said he, you know, that one article said he was all in. He was shorting. Wait till you see this. Ready? Options holding. Boom. Um, now when you look at the value of these, remember that's the overall value of the shares of what they're actually worth.

40. And this gives him actual holdings of over a billion dollar in puts. $1.1 billion in Nvidia puts and pollen tier puts. Wow. So remember May 11th is the day he talked about. So that's the day I want to show you when he came out and went public saying I think this is the end is nigh. We go back to May 11th right here.

41. Now it did at that point was 712. Down we went up we went. Oh, he was wrong. And now we're at 701. So he is up about 1.5% since then. And as you can see the five is coming down to meet that 50 or the 13. And if we get underneath, and right here it is the confirmation under the five. We stayed under the five.

42. I don't like what I see. I'm going to be blunt. I don't like what I see. Uh we have been above the five for a long time. Weeks and weeks and weeks. And now finally on Friday, we confirmed below the five. Today is another conf double confirmation below the five. And the 13 is next up the bat. So technically speaking, we are coming down.

43. We are finally drisking. I think we're going to have a few more days till we hit the 50 on the RSI. That's another thing I'm watching. And of course, he's out there shorting Palunteer and Nvidia. He also sold a boatload of calls. He only has two calls, Fizer and Hallebertton, which he you can see what he has there, but he also has the puts which dwarf this by five times.

44. Five times. And that's what we're seeing there in terms of uh what he is doing. So Michael Bur putting his mouth uh money where his mouth is. He's doing what he said he was going to do. And that Schiller, holy Schiller, look at that. Just massively overbought. And uh he's saying we're we're due for something bigger.

45. Remember the average is 17, which is roughly right here. For that to happen, this market would have to drop u about 50 over 50% or the earnings would have to double more than double. The earnings would have to more than double to get us there. And at this point, I don't see that happening. I don't see the earnings doubling.

46. I'd say it's more likely uh that the pressures of higher gas, higher energy, higher fertilizer, higher food prices, higher everything is going to lead to a a a time that we're all just not happy. And so we either kind of look at this, keep our eye on it. I'm going to be watching the technicals. As you guys can see, the technicals at the five crosses.

47. You know, I always believe we're hitting the 50 at that point. I am going to play this aggressively. Now, for those that say, "Mo, no way, man. The market only knows, you know, uh, how to survive and do what it does." I get it. I get it. Longterm, you know, I know how the market does. Uh, shortterm, you guys can see this as well.

48. Sideways, sideways, slightly down. Look at it. Straight up. Like, that's ridiculous. And I'm with him on this at this point. All these X's on my indicator, which you guys get access to in my Discord, helps to keep us grounded. And that's kind of I'm watching that. So you guys can let me know if you think I'm uh if I'm wrong, if you think Michael Bur's wrong.

49. I got to tell you, I don't think I am this time. And so I am going to be making moves in the Discord if you want to join. Boom. Down below. First link gets you the first link will get you to the monthly. Code Mo only for a few more days, 40% off or the second link down below will get you to the lifetime, which I am highly recommending.

50. This is a something new we brought out. People have been asking for it. We're trying it. A lot of people signing up. This is how you get in there, get it done. Use code Mo. Once you do, you are in. And that's what it's about. All right, folks. I appreciate you stopping by. I'll see you in the Discord. .