저자: TomLee · 외국인
요약 보기
Tom Lee는 지난주 하락의 원인으로 AI 트레이드에 대한 의구심, 대규모 자본조달(구글·SpaceX·OpenAI·Anthropic·Meta 등) 부담, 이란 지정학 리스크를 꼽고 강세장은 여전히 건재하다고 주장. 러셀2000의 상대강세와 AI 인프라 확장이 광범위하게 이어지며 로테이션 장세가 지속될 것이라 봄. 연준은 금리 인하가 어렵고 인상 가능성도 언급. 후반부에서는 AI 인프라 수요가 공급을 초과해 엔비디아에 수혜가 이어질 것이라 주장.
다듬은 글
Good to chat with you. As best as you know or can tell, what happened on Friday and what happened today because those days, 48 trading hours apart, are very, very different. Yeah, Brian, as you know, um stocks had done well for some time. So, I think there's a lot of people that are worried about the air gap below because so many stocks moved so quickly.
And then jitters emerged. Uh I'd say three jitters emerged uh last week. The first is, you know, how strong is the AI trade, especially with some of the guidance that came out of Broadcom. Uh the second, of course, is just the realization that Google is going to raise 80 billion plus SpaceX 75, OpenAI maybe 100, you know, Anthropic 75, and and then Meta, of course, filed as well.
So, there's a lot of equity being raised and asking the public to fund that. And the third is, of course, you know, the geopolitical tensions. I think people get generally nervous into a weekend and they're worried about whether there could be something happening in Iran. So, I I think those are the jitters, and as you know, uh we get these pullbacks.
You know, in our opinion, and we post we public we commented over the weekend on this. I think it's a false narrative to think the bull market is in trouble. I think the bull market's still intact and in very good shape. Tom, it Tom, it's Kelly here back at the studio, and one of the areas that's been obviously most under pressure is crypto.
Um and I know that you say people shouldn't give, you know, throw in the towel, but I think it feels like a lot of the kind of buying velocity has simply left the space, and I'm not sure when it will ever return. Yes. I mean, Kelly, I think people are really disappointed by crypto this year cuz number one
Nasdaq exchange sitting next to you at post nine. So, let me ask you, you know, you you you look at what's happened in the market to end last week and then this rebound today. What does it have you thinking about where we are in whatever sort of shakeout that was? You know, I think it it it took a little bit of the uh the overbought characteristic off the market, which all else equal is is healthy, but it does show you that even absent some very pointed catalyst that you did have last week in the case of what Broadcom announced, you can get some of these rotations.
And sometimes they happen sort of across the market, sometimes they happen within sectors like technology. And you and I have spent a lot of time talking about this. I think the rotational nature of the market and how you've got to look below the surface of the indexes is something that's likely to persist.
I think that's sort of one of the momentum trades is actually rotation, and I don't think we get out of that anytime soon. What what do you think the impact is of this massive IPO to just shifting capital around the way people are positioning around what will be the biggest IPO ever. There's been a suggestion among some market watchers that that was in part why we saw the kind of violent activity we did in some of those chip names.
I mean, even Ed Yardeni is talking about that pulling capital away from other stocks. You buy that? Well, yeah, when you when you think collectively about the big IPOs coming, the the argument that has validity is that the scarcity premium could get diluted a bit with the size of these offerings, even though the float is relatively uh low.
So, I I think that was probably part of of what we're experiencing uh well, what we did on Friday. So much for that today. Yeah. I mean, do do you do you feel like the you know, the conversation on I don't know, Thursday, Friday was hey, is money going to come out of tech and then are we going to have this broadening move?
We're going to start positioning ourselves for when we think the end of the war is going to happen. I just wonder if today even in one tiny sample size is a bit of an indictment of that idea that the tech trade is where it's at. And the tech trade is going to be where it's at for a a good while and any useful dip that people see to take advantage of, they're going to do it before they start putting money in other parts of the market.
But Scott, I would say by tech trade, I would make that a lower case T in tech because I think what's happening here goes well beyond just the S&P 500 technology sector. You've got the Russell 2000 handily outperforming the uh the S&P 500. Within the Russell 2000, you've actually seen some catch down on the part of the non-profitable names, a little bit of a convergence uh there.
And uh you've got equal weight about in line with cap weight. So, there's lots of ways to slice and dice breadth and and narrowness or lack thereof. But I I think this is a broader AI tech infrastructure build out that is not just occurring to the benefit of the large cap tech sector within the S&P.
How are you judging what the Fed might or or might not do? I don't necessarily care about what the market is pricing in because I don't credibly see that this new Fed run by Kevin Warsh is going to raise interest rates despite what conventional wisdom might tell you about where inflation either is or where it may tick to from from here.
I don't know how you feel about or think about that at a time where we are thinking about rates backing up further and inflation still not at target and maybe remaining sticky. Yeah, I I I don't think that the Fed is going to be in any position to consider cutting rates here. Uh you know, the and you might actually have some convergence in terms I'm hiking, yeah.
Sorry. Well, no, I don't think cutting I think cutting is off the table. You got the market price Hey all doing well guys. So, without wasting time, let's start our video. In today's biggest opportunity, many won't even existed. One of the biggest mistake investors make is assuming that future demand will look similar to today's demand.
History showed the opposite. The largest technology opportunity often came from the use cases that doesn't even exist. When infrastructure was first being built, when the internet was being deployed, nobody predicted YouTube. Nobody predicted Uber, and nobody predicted Netflix and TikTok. The infrastructure came first, and the killer applications arrived later.
And I believe artificial intelligence is following the same pattern. Today, investors' focus heavily on chatbots, coding assistance, image generation, enterprises, copilots, and those are important. But, they may be represent only the first generation of AI adoption. The truly transformative applications may not even exist yet.
That's why I pay close attention to infrastructure. Infrastructure always come before mass adoption. Before smartphone changed the world, wireless network had to be built. Before cloud computing exploded, data centers had to be built. Before e-commerce is scaled globally, and logistics network network had to be built.
And before AI reaches its full potential, massive compute infrastructure must be built. That is exactly what we are witnessing today. The market sometimes ask whether the hyperscalers are overspending. And I think that's the wrong question. The better question is whether they are building enough capacity.
Every major cloud providers continue talking about the constraint. Every major AI labs and every major enterprises deployment continue talking about the constant. The common theme is not excess supply. The common theme is insufficient supply. That distinction matter because when supply exceeds the sub demand, companies cut the spending.
But when demand exceeds the supply, companies accelerate the spending. And right now, the evidence point out of overwhelming toward the second scenario. And that's why Nvidia is even so important. The company is simplifying supplying the pick and shovel for entirely a new technological era. Not just for today AI, but potentially for tomorrow AI as well.
Another point that often get overlooked is how quickly AI capabilities continue improving. People often frequently compare current AI models from the 6 month ago. The difference is remarkable. Reasoning capabilities improved, coding capabilities, HD capabilities, multi-models capabilities, all are improved.
And every improvement create additional demand because every improvement unlock a new use cases. A better models attract more users and more users require more conferences. And more inferences at the point require more compute. And more compute benefit ultimately Nvidia. The cycle will repeat. This is why I think many traditional valuation framework struggle with Nvidia.
댓글 0