저자: DanIves · 외국인
요약 보기
2026년은 테슬라의 자율주행 실행이 핵심인 해다. 로보택시 무안전요원 30개 도시 확대, 지오펜스 대폭 확장, 4~5월 사이버캡 양산 시작이 확인 지표다. 자율주행 단독 가치를 약 1조 달러, 로보틱스 포함 강세 시나리오 3조 달러로 제시하며 2026년 말~2027년 초 도달 가능성을 언급했다. 약세 시나리오는 목표 미달·규제 이슈·양산 지연이다.
다듬은 글
Tesla heads into 2026 with momentum and major questions. After a 36% plunge in the first quarter, its worst stretch since 2022, the stock has climbed back to an all-time closing high, now up about 21% heading into the final days of 2025. That rebound is being driven by big bets on AI, robo taxes, and autonomy, even as EV sales slow and regulatory pressure builds.
Now to break it all down, I spoke with Wedbush head of tech research, Dan Ies, who closely tracks Tesla. You've called 2026 a defining year for Tesla. What milestones would signal autonomy is moving from promise into real world execution? Yeah, I think look, 2026, it's going to be the year of autonomous, you know, for Tesla.
Look, I think in terms of metrics, 30 cities, 30 cities in terms of getting robo taxis with no safety driver are going to be key. A two, you need to see the geoence area similar as Austin expand significantly that I think it ultimately being a rounding error relative to what we doing today. And I think the third thing it's volume production cyber caps.
I mean you need to start to see that let's call it April May time frame that really will signify the error has begun and I believe that's why it's going to be the most important year ever for Tesla and Tesla has more real world driving data than any competitor in 2026 where's the first place that this could show up uh financially this advantage?
Well, look, I think part of it is that like that's given them the advantage in terms of scaling the geoence area in these city. Look at Austin. I mean, we saw it firsthand. It started off such a small radius. Now, look what you're seeing today, you know, just so I think it just shows data is that's their advantage.
I mean, 10 million cars in the road, Tesla has something that I think no other company has. And also it speaks to like their ability to scale across the United States, I think, a lot more quicker than I think anyone's anticipating. And Tesla is investing across EVs, AI, robotics, energy, and autonomy all at the same time.
And next year in 2026, where does capital discipline start to matter more than ambition? Look, you're talking about we're in like when I think about overall AI, you're in year three of an 8 to 10 year buildout. We're talking about fourth industrial revolution and I think for Tesla right now it's about building out autonomous building out robotics.
Could could there be some worries in certain areas? You know if you start to get over your skis over the coming years and you haven't shown it. Yeah. But I think right now there's a recognition 2026 is going to be the year that this thing ins. And look autonomous we think is worth a trillion dollars alone.
you start to factor robotics in everything. I mean, I'd say in a bull case scenario, 3 trillion, early 27, late 26 is hitable. And so, how much does timing matter here then? If autonomy works, but it arrives 2 years later than expected, does the valuation case still hold? No, I mean like look, investors have been patient, but you need to show in 26 that the strategyy's there.
It's not just talk. So to your point, you know, I think part of the bare case is like, okay, whatever M says going to get the way, not going to hit the targets. I think this is one where you've given them the room. 26 is now, again, I'm not call make or break, but 26 is the year you have to show brick by brick that you're building.
And I think look, could you from a timeline perspective extend some of that in 27? Yeah. But this is rubber meets the road 26 and that's why we're so bullish in terms of where Tesla is. And so what sort of evidence do you think investors need then next year? Look, I think you need to it's going to be like city by city.
Show what accuracy looks like. Show what the ability is to get to true level for autonomous. I think these are going to be some of the significant things that you see play out. You know, how quickly you could ramp what the regulatory road map looks like and do investors need to believe in optimist for the Tesla story to work or is autonomy alone enough?
Look, autonomous alone works but no doubt I mean a key part of the growth story and this key growth chapter for Tesla. It's autonomous but it's also robotics. It's optimist. I mean, look, I get the there's some bulls. They're more bullish and optimist than autonomous in terms of what they think that can do.
So, yeah, I think look, it speaks to like the disruptive technology chapter now coming to Tesla and most comparisons focus on Whimo, but what competitor worries you the most over the next 5 years? And why is it that risk underpriced? Look, I think Whimo has done a phenomenal job, but you're in less than 10 cities and they're super expensive cars.
Like, they can't scale. Like, if you said to me like, "What worries me?" Like, look, if Uber aggressively recognized that they can't do this alone and really tried to scale this, that's something that I think would definitely be noteworthy. if Tesla did not execute to the speed that I believe that they can.
You look at like things like Uber, like some of the stuff that they're doing. I mean, like look, it's a winner. It's not a winner takes all. It's a winner takes most market. And if we're sitting here at the end of next year, what would success look like for Tesla beyond market cap or stock price? What would actually confirm your long-term thesis played out?
I think it's getting to true autonomous. I mean, you know, for many people like myself, you know, we've talked about this for six, seven years, like the concept of like getting to that. Well, because it's I believe like when it comes to AI autonomous, it's the hard it's probably the hardest one to solve because you're dealing with human lives.
Like when you're dealing with like just regular use cases, okay, you could mess up data here and there. When you're dealing with human labs, 99% is not good enough. 99.9% is not good enough. 99.9999 The point is like you're trying to solve one of the most difficult problems there is. But I think it all starts this year.
And as data center power demand grows, Tesla's battery storage business is getting more attention in 2026. What would need to happen for energy storage to matter meaningfully to Tesla's valuation? Look, I think that's something like right now valuation you're given nothing for that. I think some of the parts you could argue that that really starts to play a much bigger role specifically like in the data center buildout and everything we see.
So that's look I think it just speaks to my view. You know if I showed you beginning of the year Tesla what numbers are going to look like at the end you'd be like oh the stock is it $200 220 you know instead obviously alltime high going toward 500 hours because investors are recognizing the sum of the parts and what the core valuation could look like.
And you've laid out a very bullish view for Tesla in 2026. What does a realistic bare case look like for Tesla in that same period? Bare case is just it's not hitting the targets. Regulatory hits issues. Technology, it's a instead of Robbotox 30 cities, you're a 10. They don't get full production. You don't start volume production of cyber cabs in April, May, they push out to 27.
Like those would legitimately those would feed the bar thesis. The bar thesis is not about deliveries, brand issues. Musk. It's all about like there's almost like three to four sort of I think battleground areas that the Bulls need to see success and if they don't the Bears would have meat on the bone.
All right. Well, we'll check back in on all of this next year. Dan, thanks so much. Great to always see you. Tesla's 2026 story now hinges on execution. Musk said driverless robo taxi testing is underway. Cyberc cab production is set to start in April and investors are betting autonomy can outweigh EV headwinds.
The opportunity is massive, but so is the risk if timelines slip or regulation tightens. For Tesla, the next year may decide whether the AI vision turns into real world scale or stays a highstakes promise. For investors Business Daily, I'm Cla O' Connor.
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